Iran Naval Maneuvers

The Straits of Hormuz

Islamic Revolution Guards Corp Navy (IRGC-N) will be part of the naval maneuvers to be carried out in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman next February. The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) will conduct the war game.

The maneuvers, codenamed “Ettehad-86” (Unity-2008), will last for one week. The exact dates have not been announced yet.

IRIN Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said in Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes will not be closed during the exercise. The comment could be a veiled threat that the aim of the war game is indeed testing the capabilities of navy equipment, including the new mini submarines, and naval tactics to close the Straits if attacked.

Yesterday was Iran’s National Navy Day (28 November). To mark the occasion, the navy launched a new, indigenously developed Ghadir-class coastal (light) submarine. The navy is expected to launch two more subs of the same class in the near future. These submarines are expected to displace 123 tons when dived.

The new submarine is the second locally built. In 2005, the navy announced that it had built its first Ghadir-class sub. The navy also possesses three Russian-built Kilo-class diesel submarines.

The Navy also launched a new frigate named Jamaran (Jamaran is the name of a neighborhood in Northern Tehran where Ayatollah Khomeini kept his official residence after he came back from exile to lead the Islamic revolution in February 1979). The 1,350-ton Jamaran was built in Bandar Abbas as an updated version of the older frigates that went into service some 40 years ago. The navy already operates three of these older frigates, with Jamaran counting as the fourth frigate.

IRGC-N possesses numerous small and fast attack missile craft.

Annapolis: The World Minus Iran

Annapolis Conference

(State Department Photo)

The leaders of US, Israel and Palestine along with nearly 40 foreign ministers including 20 Arab and Muslim foreign ministers and the leaders of the UN, EU, and the Arab League were in attendance in Annapolis. So much for Ayatollah Khamenei’s near-fatwa: Boycott Annapolis!

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab and Muslim countries to boycott the conference. Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as “a hoax” which will bring them no benefit. Yet he could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. Even the Syrians showed up at the conference. Today, Tehran is abuzz of what went wrong.

Khamenei used up a lot of political capital to call for the boycott of Annapolis almost certain that aside from Hamas and Hezbollah a number of Arab countries, starting with Syria, would heed the call. Even on Monday, just a day before the conference was to take place, the Iranian leaders were trying desperately to persuade the Arabs not to go. President Ahmadinejad personally telephoned Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Asad in a last-ditch attempt to defeat Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of the conference. Iran’s isolation has never been so overwhelmingly apparent.

The Annapolis gathering, no matter how it would affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, was already a major defeat for the Islamic Republic. To show Tehran still matters, the minister of defense announced the production of a new, indigenously developed solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km-2,500 km, covering the whole Middle East, named Ashura (a telling choice of name, as Ashura symbolizes historic Shia war against the Sunnis.)

Annapolis specially created high tensions between Tehran and Damascus. Bashar Assad showed he would sacrifice his “special” relations with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to be back on track to regain the Golan Heights. Indeed any serious peace initiative involving the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Syrians would do more to isolate the Islamic Republic than any US diplomatic or military action against the country. And this might explain the change of heart in the White House after seven long years. Resolving the Middle East conflict might now be considered in the US national interest and a short cut to isolate the Islamic Republic.

News from Iran

The Annapolis Conference dominated the media coverage in Iran. The country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had urged Arab countries to boycott the conference. This week he said Palestinians would see the conference as a “hoax.” He predicted Annapolis to be a “total defeat” for US and Israeli designs to fool Palestinian people. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Bashar Assad of Syria to dissuade them from going to Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference. Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. The Iranian leaders must be surprised to find Iran so isolated in the Arab world, including Syria, on an issue of such importance to them, an issue for which they spent so much political capital.

Annapolis Conference

· Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Arab countries to boycott Annapolis conference; a day before the conference, Khamenie said Annapolis was doomed to failure; Iran’s leader predicted “total defeat” for US and Israel in their new initiative to resolve Palestinian conflic.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Saudi king and said he wished “Saudi Arabia was not listed among the attending states at the Annapolis conference;” Ahmadinejad warned Arab countries against “the plots and tricks by the Zionist enemy;” referring to conference attendees, Ahmadinejad said “Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad added he was “sorry” that some Arab leaders decided to attend Annapolis; he said Annapolis will have no benefits for Palestinians.
· Hamas opened “anti-Annapolis” conference in Gaza; Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command joint the conference; an Islamic Jihad leader Mohammed Al Hendi said Annapolis conference will promote a false illusion of a Palestinian statehood on 10 percent of the real Palestinian land.
· Hamas and Hezbollah announced they would boycott Annapolis Conference.
· Hamas warned of more attacks on Israel after Annapolis Conference; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the period after Annapolis will witness an increase of resistance against Israel.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ruled out giving “the slightest concession” in Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West; if they manage to take even a small concession from us, they will later seek other concessions by making threats, Ahmadinejad added.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said he will meet EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in late November; Jalili-Solana meeting was scheduled to break down nuclear impasse; Solana needed to report back to UN Security Council by end November.
· Iran’s Ambassador to Morocco Vahid Ahmadi said causing concerns over Iran's nuclear program are aimed at misleading public opinions about Israeli threats; he added threats to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran as well as attack on the country are unfounded and irrational.
· Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) reported Iran has produced its own fuel pellets and fuel rods for the heavy water reactor in Arak; Fuel Manufacturing Plant in Isfahan is producing the pellets and the rods; the 40-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor is under construction and it is expected to become operational in mid-2008; Arak is a plutonium-based reactor.
· Russia was poised to ship nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr nuclear reactor; IAEA inspectors arrived in Russia to check the uranium fuel it has produced for Iran's first nuclear power plant; during his trip to Iran last October, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that Russia would complete the Bushehr plant.

US-Iran Relations

· US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said at a gathering at Whitman Air Force base in Missouri that military action against Iran remains an option if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program; Whitman is the home to B-2 stealth bombers which would be used on any bombardment of Iran.
· US Navy and UK Royal Navy announced their nuclear attack submarines had staged an anti-submarine warfare exercise in early October in the Arabian Sea; the maneuvers, dubbed Exercise “Sandstone, were to practice detecting, tracking and engaging Iranian submarines.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denounced US officials' anti-Iran propaganda in Iraq; Hosseini was reacting to published reports on US officials and military commanders implicating Iran of being involved in recent blast in Baghdad bazaar; Iran rejected those charges.
· US and Iran agreed to hold their 4th round of talks on Iraqi security in the coming weeks.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Iran’s influential daily Jomhouri Islami in its lead editorial described state of Iranian politics as “chaotic;” Jomhouri Islami accused President Ahmadinejad of behaving illegally towards government’s critics; It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor, the editorial said; spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation, the paper added; Jomhouri Islami is believed to having close ties to the country’s supreme leader.
· An Iranian court acquitted former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian of spying and treason charges; Mousavian was convicted of a lesser charge of propagating against the ruling system; Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had called Moussavian a spy and all critics of his nuclear policy “traitors.”
· Iran’s highest court ordered a new investigation into the death of Iranian-Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi; Kazemi died while detained in Evin prison in Tehran in July 2003; A presidential commission inquiry revealed Kazemi died from a “fractured skull caused by a physical attack;” Iran’s judiciary originally disputed commission’s findings.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles); the new missile, called Ashura, would be capable of reaching US bases in the Middle East as well as Israel.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a Ghadir-class submarine which will be delivered to the navy on 28 November; the light submarine will be capable of rapid maneuvers in high speed and is fitted with the latest electronics and communications gears; the navy is planning to conduct war games next February in the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
· An Iranian fighter jet today crashed into Chabahar Bay in the Gulf of Oman; two crew members were reported killed in the crash.
· Iranian security forces arrested 11 members of Kurdish separatist group PJAK; PJAK has been behind a string of deadly attacks in northwestern Iran in recent months.

Regional Storylines

· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Tehran will not support any particular Lebanese presidential candidates; Hosseini said Iran pushes consensus among various Lebanese personalities, parties and ethnic groups.
· Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has rejected US call to scrap energy cooperation deal with Iran.

Iran Builds New Missile, Submarine

The New Ghadir-class Submarine

The Iranian military reported it has manufactured a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles). At this range, the new missile, called Ashura, would be capable of reaching US bases in the Middle East as well as Israel.

The military also reported it has manufactured a Ghadir-class submarine which will be delivered to the navy tomorrow. The light submarine will be capable of rapid maneuvers at high speed and is fitted with the latest electronics and communications gears, the navy claims.

The navy is planning to conduct war games next February in the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Ashura is the newest in Iran’s ballistic missile inventory. In September, Iran test-fired Ghadr-1, a missile with 1,800 km (1,100 miles) range.

F-4 Phantom Crashed

An Iranian fighter jet today crashed into Chabahar Bay in the Gulf of Oman. Two crew members were reported killed in the crash. The F-4 Phantom II air defense/attack aircraft was participating in Basij Week maneuvers near the town of Konrack in Sistan-Baluchistan province. The military has not released any other details. ( Picture: PressTV photo of an Iranian F-4 Phantom)

Iran purchased more than 220 of the Vietnam-era fighter jets in 1970s. The Phantoms were the backbone of IRIAF during the eight year war with Iraq. The Iranian F-4D’s and F-4E’s have been upgraded for their range, radar systems and moving target capabilities.

The Islamic Republic has kept its fleet of aging US-supplied aircraft flying through black market purchases of parts. US sanctions prohibit sale of military aircraft spare parts to Iran.

Iran and Annapolis Conference

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab countries to boycott the conference (Keyhan, 13 October). Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as a hoax which will bring them no benefit.

“How could other governments of the region approve of this conference? They should regard it a mischievous deception,” Khamenei proclaimed. “This US-proposed move is in fact an initiative of US regime to save the Zionist regime.”

The conference will take place on Tuesday at US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. Palestinian Authority President Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Mekdad, along with all other Arab ministers and the ministers from the Middle East Quartet, the G-8, the permanent members of UN Security Council and other key international actors will be in attendance. Nearly 50 countries and organizations would participate. So much for Khamenei’s boycott!

President Ahmadinejad today angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference.

“The people of Palestine are alive. The people of Palestine are awake. Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad said (IRIB, 25 November). “This is the result of a lack of political acumen on behalf of those who profess to be politicians… Nations in the region will not accept it. The Palestinian nation, which is standing in the frontlines of the resistance movement, will not accept it,” Ahmadinejad continued.

Hamas and Hezbollah joined Iran in attacking the conference. Hamas actually warned that it will step up attacks against Israeli troops to register its opposition to the conference.

“The period that will follow the Annapolis conference will witness an increase of the resistance against the Zionist occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip,” said Mussa Abu Marzuq, top aide to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal (AFP, 24 November).

Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran to oppose Annapolis. Even Khamenei’s rare personal appeal against attending the conference could not even pursue the Syrians. Annapolis is becoming a major defeat for Iran’s diplomacy, or lack of.

Arak Reactor Fuel Ready

Arak Heavy Water Reactor

(Fars News Agency Photo)

The director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) reported today that Iran has produced its own fuel pellets and fuel rods for the heavy water reactor in Arak. Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said the Fuel Manufacturing Plant in Isfahan is producing the pellets and the rods (IRNA, 24 November)

The 40-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor is under construction in Arak and it is expected to become operational in mid-2008. Arak plutonium-based reactor was being built on a parallel track to that of Natanz uranium-based reactor.

Both plutonium and uranium can be used in nuclear-weapon production. Nuclear experts believe plutonium-based reactors provide a simpler way of producing weapon-grade fuel. Iran insists that Arak is only a scientific research reactor replacing a smaller one in Tehran.

Ashofteh Bazaar of Iranian Politics

Ashofteh is best translated into English as chaotic. Ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics is how Tehran’s influential daily Jomhouri Eslami (“Islamic Republic”) has described the state of politics under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The paper, widely believed to having close ties to Iran’s supreme leader, in a harsh attack on Iran’s president has accused him of behaving illegally towards government’s critics.

“It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor,” said the newspaper editorial about Ahmadinejad accusing an opponent of his nuclear policies as traitor (Jomhouri Eslami, 21 November).

“Lately, spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation's general atmosphere,” said the paper.

The editorial is the latest indication of a deepening power struggle underway in Tehran. Ahmadinajad has used the country’s nuclear program to label the reformist and moderate opposition as unpatriotic. Ahmadinejad in turn is coming under increasing attack for his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani have sounded alarm, and Iran’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has called on the government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities to avoid bringing war to the country.

In the ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics, something has to give. In the simplest form, it is a struggle for survival between Ahmadinejad, representing the extremists, and Rafsanjani, representing the moderates. Even a chaotic bazaar is too small for them both. If today’s editorial is any indication of Khamenei’s move to distance himself from Ahmadinejad, then Ahmadinejad's days in Marmar Palace are numbered.

Attack on Iran Remains an Option: Gates

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said today at a gathering at Whitman Air Force base in Missouri that military action against Iran remains an option if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program. Whitman is the home to B-2 stealth bombers which would be used on any bombardment of Iran.

“This is not about changing the regime in Iran. It's about getting the regime in Iran to change its behavior, and its policies,” Gates added (AP, 20 November).

Exercise Sandstone

USS Miami on Display in Port Everglades

US Navy and UK Royal Navy announced their nuclear attack submarines had staged an anti-submarine warfare exercise in early October in the Arabian Sea dubbed Exercise “Sandstone.” Jane’s Defence Weekly, the authoritative military news digest, reported from London yesterday that USS Miami and HMS Talent practiced detecting, tracking and engaging Iranian submarines for six days close to Iran’s southeastern Persian Gulf coast.

Iranian Navy operates three Kilo-class diesel-powered submarines from their home port of Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Jane’s report indicates that the US/UK joint exercise was to discourage Iran from putting its submarines to sea to threaten coalition naval forces in the area.

Royal Navy sources told Jane’s that HMS Talent has since returned to UK but has been replaced by another British submarine.

News from Iran

The long-awaited IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program has dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. The report showed Iran making “substantial progress” in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but it also declared that the knowledge about Iran’s present nuclear activities was diminishing and the agency could not make an assessment of the state of nuclear program in Iran. The report also confirmed that Iran has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Iranian officials claimed vindication from IAEA report and celebrated their victory. The celebration might have been pre-mature. While the report praises Iran for providing information on the program’s past, it does say Iran has built 3,000 centrifuges, a number generally considered as a threshold for building a nuclear weapon program, and it also says that Iran is not providing as much information on its present nuclear activities. In other words, the report can not say whether Iran is building an atomic bomb.

The US and its European allies predictably argued that the number of centrifuges in operation coupled with the lack of transparency on present activities meant Iran could indeed be developing nuclear weapons. China and Russia, also as predicted, argued Iran must be given more time to fully cooperate with IAEA to ease international concerns over its nuclear program.

The Nuclear Program

· IAEA Director General Mohammad ElBaradei released IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program; report showed Iran making progress in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but knowledge about present activities was diminishing; report could not make an assessment of Iran’s present activities; ElBaradei’s report confirmed Iran has accomplished installation of 3,000 centrifuges and has injected uranium gas to all enrichment machines.
· Iranian officials claimed vindication from IAEA report; President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said bullies intended to prevent Iran from progress but the world will understand that Iran was right; Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said IAEA report proved Iranian nuclear program has been logical and transparent.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said UN Security Council should no longer regulate Iran’s nuclear program; an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman warned a third UNSC resolution would endanger “present trend of cooperation” with IAEA.
· The French Foreign Ministry spokesman said IAEA report shows Iran has provided only partial responses to international concerns over its nuclear program; a German Foreign Ministry spokesman called the report "not encouraging"; A UK Foreign Office spokesman said London will pursue further Security Council and EU sanctions failing upcoming EU-Iran talks.
· US State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said IAEA report’s “partial credit” to Iran resolve issue of whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons; White House Spokeswoman Dana Perino said IAEA report makes clear Iran is not interested in working with the rest of the world.
· Under intense Western pressure, China agreed to 5+1 Group meeting on Iran sanctions after earlier refusing to take part; China’s refusal had threatened to force cancellation of 5+1 meeting; China wanted IAEA to have more time to inspect nuclear sites in Iran (1).
· Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey said possibilities to mediate in Iran’s nuclear dispute existed; Calmy-Rey said Iran’s dossier has arrived at a decisive stage; Calmy-Rey said a war with Iran might affect millions of people; Switzerland was sounding out possibilities for starting direct negotiations with Iran.
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said threats against Iran would complicate the nuclear issue; Russia said it will soon start shipping nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr reactor; Russia’s nuclear fuel producer Novosibirsk said it has invited IAEA inspectors to begin sealing fuel for shipment to Iran.
· Influential editor of Keyhan called IAEA report “positive” but insufficient and “contradictory.”

Iran-US Relations

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on US to apologize to Iran for accusing it of seeking to develop nuclear weapons; Ahmadinejad said recent IAEA report found Iran truthful about key aspects of its nuclear history; he added the whole world saw US allegations were not true and Iran's activities were clean and peaceful.
· US President George Bush said a nuclear armed Iran would threaten the security of the Middle East and beyond; President Bush said unless Iran agreed to suspend enrichment, international pressure must and will grow.
· Commander of US Central Command, Admiral William Fallon, said Iranian behavior in Middle East not helpful; Adm. Fallon said Iranians should not make a mistake thinking US is afraid of them.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Iranian Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi called on Iranian government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities; Ebadi urged Iranians to support a national campaign to prevent a military conflict with US; Ebrahim Yazdi, former foreign minister and leader of Iran’s Freedom Movement, said enrichment is not a matter of national security for Iran; Yazdi said by suspending enrichment, Iran can avoid war.
· Iran’s Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ezhei said former Iran’s nuclear negotiator Hossein Moussavian gave classified information to British embassy in Tehran; Moussavian was arrested earlier this year and then freed on bail.

Major Regional Storylines

· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini urged Iraq not to back US claims it meddles with Iraqi Shia insurgency; Hosseini said US accusations that Iran backs violence in Iraq are false; Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh had said Iran was showing more restraint in sending people and weapons to destabilize Iraq.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Bahrain; Bahraini government has pledged that it will not allow its territory to be used to wage a conflict with any of its neighbors; Bahrain is home base of US Fifth Fleet.
· Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made his fourth trip to Iran in two years; Chavez and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have called on OPEC to switch away from dollar and price oil in a basket of currency.
· President Ahmadinejad called his French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy, young and inexperienced; Ahmadinejad had sent a letter to Sarkozy; French daily Le Monde said Ahmadinejad's letter to Sarkozy contained “veiled threats.”

Growing Anti-War Sentiments in Iran

Iran's Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi today called on the Iranian government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and urged all Iranians to support a national campaign aimed at preventing a military conflict with the US.

“The drum beat of war can be heard very loudly,” Ebadi told a peace and human rights conference in Tehran. “Iran should respect UN Security Council resolutions and it means suspending uranium enrichment and resolving the dispute through talks.”

Ebrahim Yazdi, a former foreign minister and the leader of Iran’s Freedom Movement, also attending the peace conference in Tehran, said the government should consider people’s will and avoid a war.

“Enrichment is not a matter of national security for Iran,” said Yazdi. “We should mobilize people against the war and put pressure on the government to change its nuclear policy… By suspending enrichment, we can avoid war.”

Ebadi’s call for a “national peace campaign” is the boldest move yet inside Iran to force the government to abandon its confrontationist nuclear policies.

Oil and Dollar

As the oil prices are closing in on $100, Iran has been pressing OPEC to study the weak dollar's effect on the oil cartel's earnings and to study the feasibility of pricing oil in a currency basket instead. Iran which uses most of its dollar-based oil revenues on euro and yen-based imports has been particularly hit hard by the free fall in dollar value.

President Ahmadinejad, attending the OPEC summit, today said a majority of OPEC heads of state have expressed willingness to study the switch away from dollar. The final communiqué issued today at the end of the summit said OPEC will study “proposals by some of the heads of state and governments,” apparently referring to Ahmadinejad’s (and Hugo Chavez’s) proposal on the switch away from dollar.

The controversy over dollar-based oil pricing come few months before Iran celebrates the 100th anniversary of its discovery of oil with $100 oil! The first oil wells of Iran and the Middle East were discovered and drilled in Masjid Soleyman, in southwestern Iran, in 1908. In the past 100 years, Masjid Soleyman alone has produced more than 1.5 billion barrels of oil.

Iran’s crude oil export revenues are expected to surpass $70 billion this year. Iran feels, however, that the weak dollar has eaten considerably into its oil revenue bonanza of the recent years.

Russia to Ship Nuclear Fuel to Iran

Russia’s Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrate Plant will soon start shipping nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power reactor. The state-run nuclear fuel producer has invited IAEA inspectors to begin sealing the fuel for shipment to Iran later in the month (Reuters, 16 November).

The report of the fuel shipment came hours after China prevented the Group of 5+1 to hold a meeting to discuss a new round of UN sanctions against Iran. China argues that the IAEA report which was released yesterday shows Iran is seriously cooperating with the UN watchdog agency and as a result no further sanctions are needed at this point.

US had pushed for new sanctions because according to the report Tehran was providing “diminishing” information about its current nuclear activities. Chinese pullout from the meeting of 5+1 Group has all but killed the chance of any new UN sanctions resolution in the coming weeks or months.

Tehran was a happy place today. Iran declared unqualified victory after IAEA released its report. President Ahmadinejad immediately took credit for his uncompromising stand against US pressure to halt uranium enrichment activities and called on US to apologize for accusing Iran of seeking nuclear bomb.

The celebrations in Tehran, however, might be premature. While the IAEA report shows a satisfactory level of cooperation with Iran in clarifying the program’s past, it confirms that Iran has reached 3,000 enrichment centrifuges, enough to produce a bomb within a year if it desired. It also indicates the “diminishing” level of information on Iran’s current nuclear program. The report might have delayed any immediate crisis for Iran, but it has not closed down the book on the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. Too much celebrations too early is not advised!

China's prevention of reaching a consensus might have unintended consequences. The US and the West will now accelerate their own sanctions regime against Iran and the US and Israel might be forced to think of an emerging nuclear Iran and the ways to stop it

The IAEA Report

The long-awaited IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program showed Iran making substantial progress in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but knowledge about present activities was diminishing. Iran’s cooperation with IAEA was called a “significant step forward.”

The report could not make an assessment of Iran’s present activities. While the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz was under IAEA safeguards, knowledge of Iran's progress was diminishing as Iran stopped implementation of the Additional Protocol that gives increased inspection rights to the IAEA.

IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei’s report also confirmed that Iran has accomplished installation of 3,000 centrifuges and injected UF6 to all centrifuges to go through the enrichment process. The number is generally believed to be the threshold for a nuclear weapon program.

The US is expected to argue that by not disclosing the full extent of current activities, Iran is covertly developing a nuclear weapon. Russia and China are likely to argue that Iran is making some progress in addressing past questions.

Ahmadinejad at War

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is coming under increasing pressure to moderate his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is also coming under pressure to rein in Ahmadinejad.

The reformists and traditional conservative, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are sounding alarm at Ahmadinejad’s pronouncements on Iran’s nuclear advances, which at times seem like inviting the US and Israel to hit the country’s nuclear installations and to start a war. On 7 November, he defiantly said that despite threats of a military attack on Iran, the country has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges. The 3,000 number was significant because it is generally believed it represents a threshold where a country can produce enough enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.

Moderates fear the uncompromising nuclear policies of the government will lead to a disastrous military conflict. They point to the US military buildup in the Persian Gulf. There are a carrier battle group and an expeditionary unit with fighter jets and a large contingent of marines. There are dozens of more fighters and bombers at bases in Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Diego Garcia and elsewhere in the region. Voices of moderation within the Islamic Republic are calling for conflict-resolution concessions, namely a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment activities. Ahmadinejad angrily labeled his critics “traitors” and questioned their mental capacity by calling them “little goats.”

The extremists led by Ahmadinejad see the situation not as a threat to nation’s security, but as an opportunity to force the US military out of the region. They point to US Fifth Fleet’s vulnerability to Iran’s advanced anti-ship missile arsenal. The Russian-built cruise missiles are positioned on the rugged mountains overlooking the Persian Gulf. They believe that they can destroy most of the Fifth Fleet by those cruise missiles. Hence they feel the US would not dare to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In their minds, this is a game of Chicken, and the US will back down.

In a tense situation prevailing in the region, the moderates warn, any miscalculations on either side can start a conflict that could get out of control. If Iranian cruise missiles destroyed even a single US ship, with the high casualties involved, it would be a total war on Iran, including the possible use of tactical nukes against the nuclear and missile installations. It would be a disaster for Iran and a disaster for the entire region.

Ahmadinejad is dead set on playing the game, building nuclear capabilities and wining the next rounds of parliamentary and presidential elections, slated for March 2008 and May 2009 respectively, on nationalistic and populist sentiments if Iran gets close to building the bomb. His anger and use of vulgar language in recent days is a reaction to becoming increasingly isolated within the establishment. The reformists and traditional conservatives see in him an extremist out of control who need to be stopped now.

Iran’s nuclear program and Iran-US relations have become the hottest issues in the power struggle unfolding in Tehran.

Ahmadinejad Calls His Critics "Traitors"

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today labeled the critics of his nuclear policies "traitors," and accused them of spying and collaborating with Iran’s enemies.

"They sent people to the enemy to regularly give them information from within the ruling system every week," Ahmadinejad told a group of students at Science and Industry University in Tehran (IRNA, 12 November).

The moderate and reformist politicians, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, have in recent days warned the government of the seriousness of the threat to Iran’s security if the international concerns over Iran’s nuclear program are ignored.

Ahmadinejad is increasingly becoming isolated within the country’s political elite, and is reacting with anger and vulgar language. Last week he called his critics "goats," apparently for their low level of intellect. Now he is accusing them of being "traitors," apparently for advocating a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.

Ahmadinejad vowed to expose his critics’ collaboration with Iran’s enemies.

China to Push Suspension of Nuclear Program

China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will visit Tehran on Tuesday for talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over Iran's uranium enrichment program, the Chinese foreign ministry said today (Xinhua).

Last Thursday, China called on Iran to “respond positively” to international concerns about its nuclear program. Chinese request had come a day after Ahmadinejd announced that Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

Chinese foreign minister’s upcoming visit to Tehran is seen by analysts as a direct pressure on Ahmadinejad to halt the enrichment program. China needs to cast a vote at UN Security Council later in the month for a new round of sanctions if Iran did not agree to halt the program. China would be under enormous pressure not to ignore Ahmadinejad’s latest remarks in voting on new sanctions against Iran. For China, halting the enrichment program would be the best option available.

Sufis Attacked

The Remains of the Sufi Seminary in Boroujerd

11 November 2007 . AP Photo

Iran’s Police and Basij Force stormed the seminary of Sufis in Boroujerd today after violent scrimmages between the Sufis and the members of a nearby Shia mosque.

Advarnews, an Iranian independent news agency, reported some 100 Sufis were injured during the raid and another 500 arrested. The basij Force troopers set the Sufi seminary afire and later demolished it by bulldozer.

Iranian Shia government does not recognize the Sufis as a religious sect and the Sufi are discriminated against because of their beliefs. Iranian Sufis mainly belong to the Nematollahi-Gonabadi order.

German Sanctions Against Iran

Merkel with Bush at president's ranch

in Crawford, Texas on Saturday

(AP Photo)

German engineering giant Siemens pulled out of all new business dealings with Iran. The move came on the eve of a visit to Washington by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Germany’s three biggest banks, Deutsche, Commerzbank, and Dresdner had already stopped doing business with Iran. Their decision to leave Iran came after US Vice President Dick Cheney warned that firms remaining in Iran would have trouble doing business in the US.

Merkel told President Bush on Saturday she would be willing to support a third round of UN sanctions against Iran if the Iranians did not halt their uranium enrichment program.

Merkel and Bush called Iran’s nuclear program a serious threat but said they both prefer to resolve the standoff through pressure, including economic sanctions.

Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia and China will meet on 19 November to assess reports on Iranian nuclear program by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Reporters Without Borders Protest Arrests

Reporters Without Borders today criticized Iran for snubbing appeals from the international community on human rights, as one journalist was imprisoned and two publications suspended.

Yaghoub Salaki Nia was arrested on 31 October and was sent to the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran. Salaki Nia wrote for banned publications Shamesse Tabriz, Ahrar and Omid-e Zanjan.

On 5 Novermber, the authorities closed Madresseh for “apostasy.” The philosophical review had published an interview in its latest edition with an intellectual cleric, Mohammad Mojtahed Shabesstary, who carries out research into the Koran. The political monthly Dilmaj, founded in 2004, was also closed on 23 September.

International human rights and free press organizations have repeatedly called for the release of Iranian political prisoners and journalists, including Emadoldin Baghi, Ako Kurdnasab, Ejlal Ghavami, Mohammad Sadegh Kaboudvand, Said Matinpour, Adnan Hassanpour, Abdolvahed Botimar, Kaveh Javanmard and Mohammad Hassan Fallahieh.

Iran is in 166th place out of 169 on Reporters Without Borders' latest world press freedom rankings of October 2007.

US Military Frees Two Iranian Officials

The US military in Iraq today released two of the five Iranian officials arrested during a raid in Erbil last January. The Iranian foreign ministry identified the two as Musa Cheghini and Hamid Reza Asgari-Shokooh (ISNA, 9 November).

Seven Iranian civilians were also released today. Iran claims they were pilgrims. US military suspected them of involvement in terrorist activities.

Six Iranian officials are still held in Iraq. In addition to three remaining officials from Erbil, the detainees include Mahmoud Farhadi who was arrested in Sulaymaniyah last September and two others in Baghdad.

Mahmoud Farhadi is accused by US military of being a high-ranking officer in IRGC-Quds Force involved in smuggling deadly roadside bombs into Iraq. Iran says Farhadi is a low-level provincial trade official visiting Iraq to promote commerce. Iran closed its border with Iraqi Kurdistan for more than two weeks to protest Farhadi’s arrest.

Ahmadinejad Defiantly Moving Forward!

Addressing a crowd gathered in Birjand, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that despite warnings of a military attack, Iran has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

“The nation stood firm, we started with a cascade of 164 centrifuges… They [the West] shouted a bit…They said: Stop at 164. Don’t move forward… At one point messages were being sent to Iran suggesting that 500 or 1,000 targets in Iran would be attacked unless the country stopped its enrichment activities… You [Iranian nation] didn’t pay attention to them. We moved forward. Today, we’ve reached 3,000 machines,” Ahmadinejad said (IRINN, 7 November).

Ahmadinejad is confirming that (A) Iranian leadership has received explicit messages that up to 1,000 targets in Iran will be attacked if the enrichment program continues, and (B) Iran has reached 3,000 centrifuges, in defiance of international demands to halt the enrichment program.

The 3,000 mark is generally considered a milestone for a uranium enrichment program that is past the experimental stage and is capable of producing enriched uranium at industrial scale, enough for producing nuclear weapons if the country chooses to go nuclear.

Ahmadinejad revealed for the first time that he and the Iranian leadership have been warned of a military attack on the country if the enrichment continues. Yet, on the eve of IAEA and EU reports on the country’s compliance with UN resolutions and international demands to halt its enrichment program, Ahmadinejad announces that Iran has reached the milestone needed to produce enough material for nuclear weapons if the country chose that route.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Tehran in mid-October and reportedly gave a message to Iran’s supreme leader that if Iran does not halt its enrichment program it will face a military attack by the US and its allies and that Russia can not help Iran if it chooses to continue its program. Ahmadinejad’s reference in his speech to the messages received by Iranian leaders might well be the confirmation of the reports on Putin’s meeting with Khamenei.

Ahmadinejad appears to be willing to accept all consequences, including attacks on some 1,000 targets in Iran. In a highly risky calculation, the government of the Islamic Republic has decided to defy UN Security Council and to challenge President Bush who has repeatedly called for suspension of the enrichment program as a prerequisite for the peaceful resolution of the nuclear standoff. The Iranian leaders apparently believe that the US would not be able to launch an attack on Iran due to problems in Iraq and lack of political support at home.

The problem with their analysis is that the US administration is serious to stop Iran going nuclear. Nuclear weapons controlled by leaders who are on record calling for disappearance of Israel will not be acceptable. President Bush has even warned of a WWIII if Iran goes nuclear. Ahmadinejad’s announcement on 3,000 centrifuges has just made it that much easier for President Bush to open a third front in the Middle East.

If other leaders in Iran disagree with Ahmadinejad, they need to move quickly to avoid a devastating attack on the country.

3,000 Centrifuges: Ahmadinejad

Ahmadinejad conferming threats of military attack on Iran

and reaching an enrichment milestone

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that despite threats of a military attack on Iran, the country has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

“The nation stood firm, we started with a cascade of 164 centrifuges… They [the West] shouted a bit… They said: Stop at 164. Don’t move forward… At one point messages were being sent to Iran suggesting that 500 or 1,000 targets in Iran would be attacked unless the country stopped its enrichment activities… You [Iranian nation] didn’t pay attention to them. We moved forward. Today, we’ve reached 3,000 machines.” (IRINN – Islamic Republic of Iran News Network Television, 7 November)

Ahmadinejad has confirmed two important pieces of information:

- The Iranian leadership has received explicit messages that up to 1,000 targets in Iran will be attacked if the enrichment program continues.

- Iran has reached 3,000 centrifuges, in defiance of international demands to halt the enrichment program.

News from Iran

The war rhetoric between US and Iran dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. US Vice President Dick Cheney warned of the need for a military solution in Iran. The influential former president Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats, and the commander of Iranian Army warned his force will scare US forces away from Iranian soil. On nuclear front, Iran insisted to continue its uranium enrichment program despite threats of a third round of UN sanctions against the country. On regional issues, Iranian media voiced displeasure and concern over Musharaf’s declaration of emergency rule in Pakistan. The moderate press blasted Musharaf for imprisoning lawyers and human rights activists while the conservative press attacked him for his anti-Islamist move. On Palestinian issue, Iran once again asked the Arab countries to boycott the Annapolis conference. The conservative press saw Annapolis gathering as an appeasement by US to Arabs to get their support against Iran.

US-Iran War Rhetoric

· US Vice President Dick Cheney said peaceful measures to stop Iran nuclear program has not worked; Cheney added US may resort to military solution in Iran.
· Former Iranian President Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats; Rafsanjani said US forces are creating a climate of fear; the Chairman of Assembly of Experts said everyone must be alert.
· Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons for attack on Iran; the 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers; US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry MOP weapons; it is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.
· Commander of Iranian Army Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi warned Iranian army will scare US forces away from Iranian soil; Gen. Salehi said Iran’s military's preparedness is at highest level.
· US Vice President Dick Cheney accused Iran of supporting insurgents in Iraq.
· US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain conducted large maneuvers in the Persian Gulf; an aircraft carrier group and additional expeditionary assault ships took part in the 5-day exercises.
· The Jerusalem Post and Al Jazeera quoting Arab and Israeli sources said the 6 September air strike over Syria was actually carried out by two US strategic bombers; Israeli F-15 and F-16 providing air cover for the US bombers; on 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes; the air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems; Iran deploys similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces.

The Nuclear Issue

· Deputy Director of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Javad Vaeedi said iran would not accept any proposal that demands a halt of its uranium enrichment.
· Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi said Iran is determined to gain its nuclear rights despite US opposition; Pourmohammadi said Iran has shown it is capable to withstand sanctions.
· US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns warned Iran of new UN sanctions if it continued its uranium enrichment activities; Burns said there's going to be a price to what Iran does; Burns added US hopes Iran will reconsider, suspend its enrichment program and come to negotiations with the United States and with the other countries.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran offer of joint international consortium for uranium enrichment inside Iran still stands; commenting on a proposed Saudi-Russia enrichment plant, Hosseini said Iran welcomes the proposal as long as it is allowed to keep its own uranium enrichment program.
· Bahrain’s crown prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa claimed Iran is developing atomic weapons; Sheikh Salman urged a diplomatic solution to Iranian nuclear standoff.

Major Regional Storylines

· Pakistan imposed “state of emergency” throughout the country; moderate newspapers called the action a “second coup” by Mosharaf; moderates voiced opposition to numerous arrests and closure of independent media; conservative newspapers opposed the declaration of state of emergency as a plot against the Islamists.
· Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) cut off aid to PKK terrorists; KRG shut of PKK offices; Turkey massed up to 100,000 troops along the mountainous border with Iraq in preparations for a cross-border operation to crush PKK rebels; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad voiced Iranian support for Turkey in its struggle against PKK; Iran cautioned all sides to find a political and diplomatic solution to PKK problem.
· At Istanbul conference on Iraqi security, Iran proposed withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq; Iran proposed establishment of a regional peace force to maintain security after the withdrawal (3); Iran volunteered its troops to participate in Iraqi peace force.
· Iran called Annapolis conference a US-Zionist plot to divert Arab attention from real issues in the region; Iranian government asked all Arab countries to boycott Annapolis; some commentators said the conference was to appease Arabs and turn them against Iran.
· Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said Middle East summit is a distraction for an attack on Iran; Mashaal said US is distracting Arabs with a false conference while preparing itself for real game.
· Iran's Ambassador to UN Mohammad Khazaee voiced concern over security situation in Afghanistan; Khazaee also warned of growing threat of opium production in and drug trafficking from the country.

Major Domestic Storylines

· US military announced it will free nine Iranian nationals detained in Iraq; five of the nine were Iranian diplomats detained by US troopers during a raid in Erbil last January.
· The World Bank halted aid programs to Iran; scheduled payments to Iran were suspended in response to new US sanctions against Iranian banks.
· An appeal court confirmed a 2.5 year sentence against Delaram Ali, one of the leaders of Iran’s women’s equal rights movement; Ali was arrested in June 2006 for participating in a women’s rights demonstration.
· Ali Azizi, the leader of Unity Consolidation Bureau, the largest Islamic student association, was arrested; students at University of Tehran held protest against the visiting president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last month.

Israel Warns of Iran Nuke

Israeli Maj. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, director of research at Israeli military intelligence, told Knesset Iran was getting steadily closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Gen. Baidatz added that if Iran is not stopped, it could have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009, AP reported today.

Israel has mounted a diplomatic offensive to try to build international support for tougher UN sanctions aimed at pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear program.

US Military Will Free Iranian Detainees

The US military in Iraq said today that it will free nine Iranians detained in Iraq. They include the five officials detained during a raid in Erbil last January.

US Rear Admiral Gregory Smith said the nine individuals have no “continuing value” for US military.

It is not known whether Mahmoud Farhadi who was detained last September in Sulaymaniyah will be among the nine. US military has accused Farhadi of being a high ranking IRGC-Quds Force officer involved in smuggling explosives into Iraq.

More on MOP Development

Is Iran the target?

Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons. The 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers. The US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry two MOP weapons each.

MOP is equipped with GPS navigation system. It is more than 20 ft long and has more than 10 times the explosive power of the largest bunker buster already in service.

It is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.

MOP will be used in any bombing campaign of nuclear and missile sites in Iran if the administration exercises the military option.

Delaram Ali is Sentenced to 2.5 Years

Delaram Ali

Delaram Ali, one of the leaders of Iran’s women’s equal rights movement, was sentenced to 28 months in prison for participating in Haft-e Tir demonstrations on June 12, 2006. The protest in support of women’s rights was violently broken up by the police. Delaram was beaten severely during the attack, dragged on the ground by several police officers and subsequently arrested. Delaram was convicted by a lower court in May 2007 and the sentence was upheld by a court of appeal on Sunday.

Iranian women’s rights defenders appeal to the national and international community to take swift action condemning the unjust ruling of the court in the case of Delaram Ali.

Please check the Change for Equality website at http://www.we4change.info/english/ for latest developments considering Delaram and other women activists under arrest.

US Involvement in Attack on Syria

The Jerusalem Post and Al Jazeera quoting Arab and Israeli sources say the 6 September air strike over Syria was actually carried out by two US strategic bombers, with Israeli F-15 and F-16 providing air cover for the US bombers.

The Syrian target was reportedly a nuclear site under construction. The sources add that each US plane carried a tactical nuclear weapon and that the site was hit and was totally destroyed by a single bomb dropped from one of the planes.

On 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes.

The air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems. Iran deploys very similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems which were rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces during their attack on the Syrian nuclear site.

US Naval Maneuvers in Persian Gulf

US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain are conducting a series of maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. An aircraft carrier group and additional expeditionary assault ships are taking part in the 5-day exercises which would end Monday.

Preparing the Public for War

Iranian political leaders and military commanders are increasingly warning the nation of an upcoming war with the US. Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani today warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats.

“The movements and the presence of US forces and their supporters in the region are unprecedented, as is the creation of a menacing climate of fear," Rafsanjani told military commanders in Tehran (IRNA, 1 November).

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, referring to US threats, said yesterday millions of Iranians are ready to sacrifice themselves fighting the country's enemies (IRNA, 31 October).

The Iranian military is reporting a substantial increase in the number of US sorties over the Iranian border in recent days. On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the US sorties run counter to international rules and warned that the Iranian military would give a crushing response if the country’s territorial integrity is violated.

Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari warned that the United States would find itself in a quagmire deeper than Iraq if it attacked the Islamic Republic (IRNA, 30 October). The Deputy Commander of IRGC Naval Force, Brig. Gen. Ali Fahdavi, warned the US of IRGC’s ability to disrupt oil flows in the Persian Gulf and the narrow Strait of Hurmuz, “The area of Persian Gulf and strategic Strait of Hormuz is such that a small operation can have a big outcome” (Fars News Agency, 29 October).

The recent warning by Iranian leaders, and especially by the political leadership, of an impending war with the US is a new development. The political leaders, including Ahmadinejad, had been insisting that the US would not attack Iran. Ahmadinejad famously said in September that his mathematical calculations based on his skills as an engineer proved that US forces would not launch an attack.

The Iranian leaders are now taking the attack seriously. Many Iran analysts believe that when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s met Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran recently, he gave the supreme leader a message that the US attack on Iran is imminent unless the Iranians retreat on the nuclear front. Putin reportedly wanted Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a surprise visit to Tehran on Tuesday to bring home to Ahmadinejad the reality that if Iran fails to comply with the UN Security Council demand to stop uranium enrichment by the end of November, Moscow will have no grounds for protecting it.

A major power struggle is underway in Tehran on how to deal with the realities of a US attack if Iran does not suspend its uranium enrichment program. The day after Putin left Tehran, the IRGC commanders threatened to fire 11,000 missiles at US targets in the region if Iran is attacked. Their warning was seen by Iran analysts as a direct response to the message carried by the Russian president. Ahmadinejad and the hardliners were in no mood to compromise. Ali Larijani, the chief nuclear negotiator and the number three politician in Tehran, resigned in disagreement.

Rafsanjani and the traditional conservatives are open to a limited compromise on nuclear front, like suspending the enrichment for a year or two, to avoid a military conflict and the possibility of a regime collapse in its aftermath. The reformists, out of the government and now acting as loyal opposition, decried Ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies in the recent Mosharekat party congress and warned of a military attack if compromises are not accepted. Khamemei, the supreme leader, has generally sided with the hardliners.

The attempt by the government to prepare the public for war points to a hardening of positions over the nuclear program and US-Iran relations. It does not bode well for peace in the region.