Crude oil prices closed at nearly $96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today for an increase of $35 per barrel in 2007.
Iran has the world’s second largest crude-oil reserves, estimated at 138 billion barrels, valued today at more than $13 trillion (with 12 zeros!)
Iran’s oil export revenues increased by more than $30 billion (9 zeros) in 2007 alone to sit at close to $80 billion for the year.
It is ironic that the government is so incapable of managing the extra cash on hand. Its cash-flow policies have created a seemingly out-of-control inflation, with a rate reaching the 25% danger mark.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Press TV or Press Photoshop?
Iran’s Press TV posted a photo of Iranians demonstrating their love for Jews on its website. The picture, however, was originally taken in a pro-government demonstration with the same sign reading, “Nuclear Energy Is Our Undeniable Right!” Good Photoshop, shameful journalism.
Thanks to Gateway Pundits for exposing the fake photo: (http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/12/sad-iranian-press-tv-forced-to-run.html)
Thanks to Gateway Pundits for exposing the fake photo: (http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/12/sad-iranian-press-tv-forced-to-run.html)
and Kamangir, a popular Iranian website, for running the story:
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Algiers Treaty Revisited
The Iraqi government announced today that it will send a delegation to Iran to seek changes to the 1975 Algiers Treaty that defines the two countries’ borders. Iraq’s deputy foreign minister Labeed Abbawi said the delegation would leave for Tehran “in the coming days.” (Reuters)
Iraqi President Jalal Talebani had earlier called the Algiers Treaty void. The treaty was signed by Iraq’s then-Vice President Saddam Hussein and the shah of Iran in the Algerian capital in 1975.
Talebani today distanced himself from his own remarks and said the treaty could not be nullified unilaterally. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki welcomed Talebani’s change of heart. “The Iraqi president's [new] remarks over Algiers agreement will strengthen Iran-Iraq ties,” said Mottaki. (ISNA)
The Iraqis insist that some changes in the treaty are necessary to stop any future disputes over oil wells situated in the border region. The Iranians see the agreement as a binding treaty between two nations irrespective of their current governments.
Iraqi President Jalal Talebani had earlier called the Algiers Treaty void. The treaty was signed by Iraq’s then-Vice President Saddam Hussein and the shah of Iran in the Algerian capital in 1975.
Talebani today distanced himself from his own remarks and said the treaty could not be nullified unilaterally. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki welcomed Talebani’s change of heart. “The Iraqi president's [new] remarks over Algiers agreement will strengthen Iran-Iraq ties,” said Mottaki. (ISNA)
The Iraqis insist that some changes in the treaty are necessary to stop any future disputes over oil wells situated in the border region. The Iranians see the agreement as a binding treaty between two nations irrespective of their current governments.
Baghi’s Condition Alarming
Reporters Without Borders today issued an alarm on the health of Emadoldin Baghi, the Iranian journalist and human rights activist. Baghi suffered double heart attacks at Evin prison on 26 December and was transferred to the emergency room at Qamar Bani Hachem hospital. He was returned to the prison yesterday.
“The conditions in which Baghi is being held are unacceptable,” said Reporters Without Borders. “He has been in solitary confinement ever since he was first taken to Evin, as if imprisonment was not already enough punishment. As his state of health has worsened steadily during the past two months, it is inconceivable that he should be expected to convalesce in prison.”
Saleh Nikbakht, Baghi’s lawyer, said the deterioration in Baghi's health was mainly due to the appalling conditions in the prison and to the harassment to which he has been subjected during interrogation sessions. “Emadoldin Baghi will not survive another heart attack,” he said.
“The conditions in which Baghi is being held are unacceptable,” said Reporters Without Borders. “He has been in solitary confinement ever since he was first taken to Evin, as if imprisonment was not already enough punishment. As his state of health has worsened steadily during the past two months, it is inconceivable that he should be expected to convalesce in prison.”
Saleh Nikbakht, Baghi’s lawyer, said the deterioration in Baghi's health was mainly due to the appalling conditions in the prison and to the harassment to which he has been subjected during interrogation sessions. “Emadoldin Baghi will not survive another heart attack,” he said.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Russia Denies Iran Claim on Missile Sales
Russia's Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service (FSVTS) denied the claim by Iran’s defense minister that Russia was prepared to sell advanced S-300 air defense missile system to Iran.
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Mostafa Najjar surprised the world earlier this week by announcing that Russia had signed a contract with Iran to sell S-300 missiles despite a strong US warning against the sale.
“The question of deliveries of S-300 systems to Iran, is not currently taking place, is not being considered and is not being discussed at this time with the Iranian side," said the FSVTS statement.
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Mostafa Najjar surprised the world earlier this week by announcing that Russia had signed a contract with Iran to sell S-300 missiles despite a strong US warning against the sale.
“The question of deliveries of S-300 systems to Iran, is not currently taking place, is not being considered and is not being discussed at this time with the Iranian side," said the FSVTS statement.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Russia Pressuring Iran to Change Behavior
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Moscow daily Vremya Novostei today that Iran has no need to proceed with its nuclear enrichment program now that Russia is delivering it the fuel for its nuclear reactor.
Lavrov said by ending the enrichment program Iran will end any suspension that it still operates a secret nuclear weapon program. He suggested Iran will benefit by suspending its enrichment program, including a normalization of relations with the US.
Lavrov stated Russia would support new sanctions against Iran if it did not stop its enrichment program.
Russia also announced today that it will sell Iran its most advanced S-300 air defense system capable of shooting down any US or Israeli jet fighters.
The combination of offering Iran advanced military hardware and nuclear fuel and at the same time threatening it with new sanctions are seen as part of a complex Russian policy to change Iran’s behavior and in the process turning Iran into a Russian client.
Lavrov said by ending the enrichment program Iran will end any suspension that it still operates a secret nuclear weapon program. He suggested Iran will benefit by suspending its enrichment program, including a normalization of relations with the US.
Lavrov stated Russia would support new sanctions against Iran if it did not stop its enrichment program.
Russia also announced today that it will sell Iran its most advanced S-300 air defense system capable of shooting down any US or Israeli jet fighters.
The combination of offering Iran advanced military hardware and nuclear fuel and at the same time threatening it with new sanctions are seen as part of a complex Russian policy to change Iran’s behavior and in the process turning Iran into a Russian client.
Mottaki Arrives in Bahrain
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Manama last night and was welcomed by Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid. Mottaki will take part in the first meeting of Iran-Bahrain cooperation commission.
Iranian-Bahraini relations faced a major crisis when Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Iran’s influential daily Keyhan, reiterated a long-standing popular Iranian claim over Bahrain. The government has distanced itself from Shariatmadari’s call for Bahrain’s return to Iran.
The Shah’s government had renounced Iran’s claim over Bahrain in 1971 in return for the ownership of three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tombs, now claimed by UAE.
Iranian-Bahraini relations faced a major crisis when Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Iran’s influential daily Keyhan, reiterated a long-standing popular Iranian claim over Bahrain. The government has distanced itself from Shariatmadari’s call for Bahrain’s return to Iran.
The Shah’s government had renounced Iran’s claim over Bahrain in 1971 in return for the ownership of three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tombs, now claimed by UAE.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Enriched Uranium: From Russia with Love (or without it)
After years of debates and UN sanctions over Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Russia began delivering to Iran uranium U-235 isotope enriched by 3.62%. The enriched uranium will be used at Bushehr’s nuclear reactor, the first such power plant in Iran. The arrival of enriched uranium brought expression of relief and approval in Tehran. Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), welcomed the delivery and said it was “particularly important because of Russia’s role in the UN Security Council and 5+1 group.” Russia announced all deliveries of nuclear fuel to Bushehr will be under IAEA control. A Russian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has submitted written guarantees that the fuel will be used only for Bushehr.
The expression of relief and approval notwithstanding, the Iranian leaders must be, or should be, very concerned. As soon as the enriched uranium shipment arrived from Siberia, Tehran’s long-standing argument in defense of its enrichment program ceased to exist. A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, summed up Tehran’s predicament: “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves.”
What seemed at first an Iranian victory in having the ability even to import enriched uranium in the face of UN and US sanctions, is now appearing as a turning point in uniting the major powers, including Russia and China, against Iran’s enrichment program.
The pressure on Tehran to suspend its program will multiply in the coming weeks. A Russian foreign ministry statement announcing the delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran might have summed up the kind of pressure in the making: “New conditions have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UN Security Council resolutions.” UNSC has passed two resolutions requiring Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
President Bush alluded to Tehran’s difficulties now that they have received their enriched uranium. He said the Russian shipments of nuclear fuel to Iran meant the Islamic Republic did not need to enrich uranium, Iran “will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”
The Iranians scrambled to come up with answers. IAEO’s Aghazadeh told reporters in Tehran that Iran’s own enriched uranium will be used for a power plant that is to be built, the Dakhovin. Iran analysts believe the Dakhovin plant is in very early stages of planning and the start of its construction and completion would take years or decades to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program was needed to fuel Dakhovin was met with widespread skepticism.
Sitting in Tehran, the world seemed to be a much simpler place without the gift from Russia, with or without love. Tehran now needs to seriously reevaluate its enrichment program or face a unified front for more sanctions.
The expression of relief and approval notwithstanding, the Iranian leaders must be, or should be, very concerned. As soon as the enriched uranium shipment arrived from Siberia, Tehran’s long-standing argument in defense of its enrichment program ceased to exist. A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, summed up Tehran’s predicament: “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves.”
What seemed at first an Iranian victory in having the ability even to import enriched uranium in the face of UN and US sanctions, is now appearing as a turning point in uniting the major powers, including Russia and China, against Iran’s enrichment program.
The pressure on Tehran to suspend its program will multiply in the coming weeks. A Russian foreign ministry statement announcing the delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran might have summed up the kind of pressure in the making: “New conditions have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UN Security Council resolutions.” UNSC has passed two resolutions requiring Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
President Bush alluded to Tehran’s difficulties now that they have received their enriched uranium. He said the Russian shipments of nuclear fuel to Iran meant the Islamic Republic did not need to enrich uranium, Iran “will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”
The Iranians scrambled to come up with answers. IAEO’s Aghazadeh told reporters in Tehran that Iran’s own enriched uranium will be used for a power plant that is to be built, the Dakhovin. Iran analysts believe the Dakhovin plant is in very early stages of planning and the start of its construction and completion would take years or decades to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program was needed to fuel Dakhovin was met with widespread skepticism.
Sitting in Tehran, the world seemed to be a much simpler place without the gift from Russia, with or without love. Tehran now needs to seriously reevaluate its enrichment program or face a unified front for more sanctions.
News from Iran
The local media highlighted positive reports on Iran’s foreign relations in the wake of the recent US National Intelligence Estimate. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first leader of the Islamic Republic to perform hajj in Mecca at the personal invitation of Saudi King Abdullah. Ahmadinejad’s visit was seen as a consolidation of warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia began delivering nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr power plant and signed an agreement to sell Iran 130 Tupolev civilian aircraft. Iranian officials rejected calls to suspend their uranium enrichment program now that Russians have provided fuel for the country’s first nuclear power plant nearing completion. On the domestic front, anti-government student protests continued for the second week and twenty-nine reformist and moderate parties formed a grand coalition to challenge pro-government groups in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani will lead the coalition.
Iran Nuclear Program
· Russia began delivering nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor; Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), welcomed Russia’s delivery of nuclear fuel to Bushehr; he said the arrival of Russian nuclear fuel was “particularly important because of Russia’s role in the UN Security Council and 5+1 group”; Aghazadeh said 1,000-megawatt power plant at Bushehr was 95% complete and it was expected to go online in 2008; first consignment of fuel delivered to Bushehr contained 163 main and 17 auxiliary fuel assemblies of U235 isotope enriched by 3.62%.
· Russia announced all deliveries of nuclear fuel to Bushehr will be under IAEA control; a Russian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has submitted written guarantees that the fuel will be used only for Bushehr; Russia contended “new conditions” have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UNSC resolutions.
· US President George Bush said Iran now needs to halt enrichment of uranium; a White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, also said, “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves”; President Bush said, “Iran was a threat to peace, Iran is a threat to peace, and Iran will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”
· Iran rejected calls to suspend its uranium enrichment program; IAEO Deputy Director Mohammad Saeedi said delivery of nuclear fuel by Russia did not mean Iran would suspend its enrichment activities; IAEO Director Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran was planning to build a 360-megawatt nuclear power station and needed to continue its enrichment program.
US-Iran Relations
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program a “declaration of surrender” by US; he added the NIE was a “change in their attitude” and it was “a correct move.”
· US State Department Acting Undersecretary John Rood said in a conference in Budapest that US needs a shield against Iran’s missile threat.
· Mohsen Hakim, the Iraqi political leader and advisor to United Iraq Coalition, said attitudes of US officials toward Iran has changed for better; Hakim, in Washington for talks with US officials, said US-Iran relations was a topic of discussion; Hakim added, “Perhaps, the change of tone in Washington was consistent with US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) acknowledging non-diversion of Iranian nuclear program.”
· Iran and US talks were planned at ambassador level; Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said there were “no need to raise the level of talks”; Iran agreed to a fourth round of talks with US on Iraqi security; three previous meetings were held in Baghdad earlier this year with a fourth expected to be held in January 2008.
Major Regional/International Storylines
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first leader of the Islamic Republic to perform hajj in Mecca; Ahmadinejad arrived in Saudi Arabia at invitation of King Abdullah; Ahmadinejad’s visit was seen as a consolidation of warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
· GCC Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said Persian Gulf states will not develop their cooperation with Iran before reaching a settlement on three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs claimed by UAE; an Iranian foreign minsitry spokesman rejected any negotiation or arbitration on the islands and said the islands were an integral part of Iranian territory.
· Russia announced it will sell 130 Tupolev civilian aircrafts to Iran; announcement came shortly after Russia delivered first shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr power plant.
· China and Iran signed a $2 billion dollar oil contract; China agreed to invest in Yadegaran oil fields in southwestern Iran; the contract was the first major oil contract signed after release of US NIE; Iran signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease banking restrictions on Iranian commercial transactions; US sanctioned a number of Iranian banks, including Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial banking institution; Iran wanted to keep Bank Melli operations in China intact.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran was getting close to restore ties with Egypt; he added “the Islamic Republic is prepared to open its embassy in Cairo in the shortest time”; Iran’s Speaker of parliament, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, was scheduled to visit Cairo in late January; Haddad-Adel will be highest ranking Iranian official to go to Egypt since Iran’s 1979 revolution.
· Iran and Pakistan resumed talks on IPI gas pipeline; India was the third part of IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) proposed pipeline but did not attend the meeting; officials said Iran and Pakistan reached agreement on final gas sale purchase agreement; the agreement called for Iran to build pipeline to Pakistani border and Pakistan would built pipeline in its territory.
· Iran protested to Azerbaijan over spy trial; Iranian foreign ministry summoned Azeri ambassador to Tehran over “baseless accusations” of Iranian agents plotting a coup against Azeri government; an Azerbaijani court convicted and sentenced 15 people on charges of conspiring with Iranian intelligence services to topple the government of President Ilham Aliyev.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini condemned Israeli air raids in Gaza; Hosseini said “Israel’s targeted assassinations and killing of innocent civilians are true achievements of Annapolis conference.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called Palestine conference in Paris “ineffective” and “inefficient”; Hosseini said Paris conference did not examine Palestinian issues fairly.
Major Domestic Storylines
· Hundreds of students held rallies at University of Tehran against Ahmadinejad’s government; the protests were second large demonstration at the university in less than a week.
· Twenty-nine moderate and reformist parties formed a grand coalition to challenge pro-government groups in upcoming Majlis elections; former presidents Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani were main figures behind new coalition.
· IRGC Navy staged naval war games in Persian Gulf; IRGC Naval Commander Brig. Gen. Ali Razmjoo said exercises were aimed at “enhancing the combat readiness” of his force; Gen. Ramzjoo said his forces fired surface-to-air missiles at mock hostile targets and tested new weapons and equipment; two-day maneuvers were second phase of “Ettehad-86” (Unity-08) war games.
· Iranian troops killed 12 members of Jundallah rebel group in Iranian Baluchistan.
· Chris du Burgh will sing “The Lady in Red” and will play with Iran’s top pop group Arian next summer in Tehran; the Irish singer will be the first Westerner to play a concert in Iran since 1979 revolution.
Iran Nuclear Program
· Russia began delivering nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor; Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), welcomed Russia’s delivery of nuclear fuel to Bushehr; he said the arrival of Russian nuclear fuel was “particularly important because of Russia’s role in the UN Security Council and 5+1 group”; Aghazadeh said 1,000-megawatt power plant at Bushehr was 95% complete and it was expected to go online in 2008; first consignment of fuel delivered to Bushehr contained 163 main and 17 auxiliary fuel assemblies of U235 isotope enriched by 3.62%.
· Russia announced all deliveries of nuclear fuel to Bushehr will be under IAEA control; a Russian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has submitted written guarantees that the fuel will be used only for Bushehr; Russia contended “new conditions” have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UNSC resolutions.
· US President George Bush said Iran now needs to halt enrichment of uranium; a White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, also said, “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves”; President Bush said, “Iran was a threat to peace, Iran is a threat to peace, and Iran will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”
· Iran rejected calls to suspend its uranium enrichment program; IAEO Deputy Director Mohammad Saeedi said delivery of nuclear fuel by Russia did not mean Iran would suspend its enrichment activities; IAEO Director Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran was planning to build a 360-megawatt nuclear power station and needed to continue its enrichment program.
US-Iran Relations
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program a “declaration of surrender” by US; he added the NIE was a “change in their attitude” and it was “a correct move.”
· US State Department Acting Undersecretary John Rood said in a conference in Budapest that US needs a shield against Iran’s missile threat.
· Mohsen Hakim, the Iraqi political leader and advisor to United Iraq Coalition, said attitudes of US officials toward Iran has changed for better; Hakim, in Washington for talks with US officials, said US-Iran relations was a topic of discussion; Hakim added, “Perhaps, the change of tone in Washington was consistent with US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) acknowledging non-diversion of Iranian nuclear program.”
· Iran and US talks were planned at ambassador level; Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said there were “no need to raise the level of talks”; Iran agreed to a fourth round of talks with US on Iraqi security; three previous meetings were held in Baghdad earlier this year with a fourth expected to be held in January 2008.
Major Regional/International Storylines
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first leader of the Islamic Republic to perform hajj in Mecca; Ahmadinejad arrived in Saudi Arabia at invitation of King Abdullah; Ahmadinejad’s visit was seen as a consolidation of warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
· GCC Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said Persian Gulf states will not develop their cooperation with Iran before reaching a settlement on three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs claimed by UAE; an Iranian foreign minsitry spokesman rejected any negotiation or arbitration on the islands and said the islands were an integral part of Iranian territory.
· Russia announced it will sell 130 Tupolev civilian aircrafts to Iran; announcement came shortly after Russia delivered first shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr power plant.
· China and Iran signed a $2 billion dollar oil contract; China agreed to invest in Yadegaran oil fields in southwestern Iran; the contract was the first major oil contract signed after release of US NIE; Iran signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease banking restrictions on Iranian commercial transactions; US sanctioned a number of Iranian banks, including Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial banking institution; Iran wanted to keep Bank Melli operations in China intact.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran was getting close to restore ties with Egypt; he added “the Islamic Republic is prepared to open its embassy in Cairo in the shortest time”; Iran’s Speaker of parliament, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, was scheduled to visit Cairo in late January; Haddad-Adel will be highest ranking Iranian official to go to Egypt since Iran’s 1979 revolution.
· Iran and Pakistan resumed talks on IPI gas pipeline; India was the third part of IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) proposed pipeline but did not attend the meeting; officials said Iran and Pakistan reached agreement on final gas sale purchase agreement; the agreement called for Iran to build pipeline to Pakistani border and Pakistan would built pipeline in its territory.
· Iran protested to Azerbaijan over spy trial; Iranian foreign ministry summoned Azeri ambassador to Tehran over “baseless accusations” of Iranian agents plotting a coup against Azeri government; an Azerbaijani court convicted and sentenced 15 people on charges of conspiring with Iranian intelligence services to topple the government of President Ilham Aliyev.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini condemned Israeli air raids in Gaza; Hosseini said “Israel’s targeted assassinations and killing of innocent civilians are true achievements of Annapolis conference.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called Palestine conference in Paris “ineffective” and “inefficient”; Hosseini said Paris conference did not examine Palestinian issues fairly.
Major Domestic Storylines
· Hundreds of students held rallies at University of Tehran against Ahmadinejad’s government; the protests were second large demonstration at the university in less than a week.
· Twenty-nine moderate and reformist parties formed a grand coalition to challenge pro-government groups in upcoming Majlis elections; former presidents Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani were main figures behind new coalition.
· IRGC Navy staged naval war games in Persian Gulf; IRGC Naval Commander Brig. Gen. Ali Razmjoo said exercises were aimed at “enhancing the combat readiness” of his force; Gen. Ramzjoo said his forces fired surface-to-air missiles at mock hostile targets and tested new weapons and equipment; two-day maneuvers were second phase of “Ettehad-86” (Unity-08) war games.
· Iranian troops killed 12 members of Jundallah rebel group in Iranian Baluchistan.
· Chris du Burgh will sing “The Lady in Red” and will play with Iran’s top pop group Arian next summer in Tehran; the Irish singer will be the first Westerner to play a concert in Iran since 1979 revolution.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Enriched Uranium Delivered
The first shipment of Bushehr nuclear power plant fuel was delivered to Iran today. The Bushehr nuclear power plant is 95% complete and is expected to go online next year.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aqazadeh, told reporters in Tehran that the fuel delivery does not mean Iran would stop its own uranium enrichment program. The enriched uranium will be used, he said, in a power plant to be built in Darkhovin, Khuzistan.
Iran analysts believe that the Darkhovin plant is in its very early phase of planning and the construction, let alone the completion, of such plant would take many years to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program is needed now to supply fuel to a plant that does not even exists was greeted with skepticism.
Russia’s director of the center for studies of modern Iran told reporters in Moscow that the fuel delivery under the supervision of IAEA removes the specter of a military conflict over Iran’s own nuclear program.
The White House today called the shipment another reason for Iran to suspend its own uranium enrichment program.
“If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aqazadeh, told reporters in Tehran that the fuel delivery does not mean Iran would stop its own uranium enrichment program. The enriched uranium will be used, he said, in a power plant to be built in Darkhovin, Khuzistan.
Iran analysts believe that the Darkhovin plant is in its very early phase of planning and the construction, let alone the completion, of such plant would take many years to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program is needed now to supply fuel to a plant that does not even exists was greeted with skepticism.
Russia’s director of the center for studies of modern Iran told reporters in Moscow that the fuel delivery under the supervision of IAEA removes the specter of a military conflict over Iran’s own nuclear program.
The White House today called the shipment another reason for Iran to suspend its own uranium enrichment program.
“If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe.
Iran to Buy Tupolev’s
Russia announced today that it will sell 130 Tupolev civilian aircrafts to Iran. The announcement came shortly after Russia delivered the first shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr plant.
Tupolev aircraft are unpopular with the Iranian public due to their high rate of fatal accidents in recent years.
Tatarstan’s Garbonov plant will manufacture the 130 Tupolev 214 and 334 for Iran.
Tupolev aircraft are unpopular with the Iranian public due to their high rate of fatal accidents in recent years.
Tatarstan’s Garbonov plant will manufacture the 130 Tupolev 214 and 334 for Iran.
Easing Banking Restrictions
Reports from Tehran indicate that during a recent trip to China, an Iranian delegation of businessmen signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease the banking restrictions on Iranian financial transactions (ISNA, 17 December).
The Bush administration’s policy of sanctioning Iranian banks, especially against Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial bank, seems to have run into stiff resistance by the Chinese as well as the Russian and Arab banks. The US wants to add Bank Melli to the list of sanctioned Iranian entities in a new UN Security Council sanction resolution early next year. China and Russia can bloc the move.
The new US NIE seems to have opened la lot of doors for Iran. The Russians started delivering enriched uranium to Bushehr nuclear reactor today. The Iranians did sign a $2 billion oil contract with the Chinese. And the resistance against further banking restrictions on Iran should be viewed in this light. The NIE has changed everything!
The Bush administration’s policy of sanctioning Iranian banks, especially against Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial bank, seems to have run into stiff resistance by the Chinese as well as the Russian and Arab banks. The US wants to add Bank Melli to the list of sanctioned Iranian entities in a new UN Security Council sanction resolution early next year. China and Russia can bloc the move.
The new US NIE seems to have opened la lot of doors for Iran. The Russians started delivering enriched uranium to Bushehr nuclear reactor today. The Iranians did sign a $2 billion oil contract with the Chinese. And the resistance against further banking restrictions on Iran should be viewed in this light. The NIE has changed everything!
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Three Islands Key to GCC Relations
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said today the Persian Gulf states will not develop their relations with Iran before reaching a settlement on the three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs owned by Iran and claimed by UAE.
“Without settling this dispute either by international arbitration or direct negotiation with the UAE, the Gulf states will not enhance their co-operation with Iran,” said Sheik Abdulrahman (The Gulf Times, 16 December).
In 1971, the shah’s government, under pressure from the British, dropped Iran’s historic claim over Bahrain and in return the departing British forces handed over the three islands to Iran. At the time the move was seen as treason by the shah to disclaim Bahrain in lieu of three uninhibited islands. Now UAE is claiming the ownership of those three islands.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was harshly criticized in Tehran for attending a recent GCC summit held in Doha at the end of which the GCC states passed a resolution reiterating UAE’s ownership of the three islands. Today’s announcement by Sheik Abdulrahman adds to the importance and the urgency of the issue for the region’s peace and security.
Islamic Republic is already under heavy criticism for its handling of the Caspian Sea legal status. A 1921 treaty signed by Lenin’s government in Moscow and the Persian government in Tehran had divided the Caspian equally between the two countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has been put under pressure from Russia to accept only 13% share of the Caspian based on the length of its coastline. The Iranians have reportedly agreed to a 20% equal share for the five Caspian states.
The opposition compares the government’s Caspian agreement to capitulations at Gulistan and Turkmenchay in 1800’s when Persia renounced its rule over the present-day Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and handed them to Tsarist Russia.
Handing over the three islands to UAE on top of an agreement to accept less than half for Caspian would fatally undermine the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.
“Without settling this dispute either by international arbitration or direct negotiation with the UAE, the Gulf states will not enhance their co-operation with Iran,” said Sheik Abdulrahman (The Gulf Times, 16 December).
In 1971, the shah’s government, under pressure from the British, dropped Iran’s historic claim over Bahrain and in return the departing British forces handed over the three islands to Iran. At the time the move was seen as treason by the shah to disclaim Bahrain in lieu of three uninhibited islands. Now UAE is claiming the ownership of those three islands.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was harshly criticized in Tehran for attending a recent GCC summit held in Doha at the end of which the GCC states passed a resolution reiterating UAE’s ownership of the three islands. Today’s announcement by Sheik Abdulrahman adds to the importance and the urgency of the issue for the region’s peace and security.
Islamic Republic is already under heavy criticism for its handling of the Caspian Sea legal status. A 1921 treaty signed by Lenin’s government in Moscow and the Persian government in Tehran had divided the Caspian equally between the two countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has been put under pressure from Russia to accept only 13% share of the Caspian based on the length of its coastline. The Iranians have reportedly agreed to a 20% equal share for the five Caspian states.
The opposition compares the government’s Caspian agreement to capitulations at Gulistan and Turkmenchay in 1800’s when Persia renounced its rule over the present-day Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and handed them to Tsarist Russia.
Handing over the three islands to UAE on top of an agreement to accept less than half for Caspian would fatally undermine the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.
Student Protests Continue
Hundreds of students held rallies today at the University of Tehran against Ahmadinejad’s government and its crackdown on student movement. This is the second large demonstration at the university in less than a week.
Students from other universities reportedly joined in the protests. The Intelligence Ministry, Iran’s state police, has imprisoned a number of student activists in the past few weeks. Their immediate freedom is one of the demands of the student movement.
Students from other universities reportedly joined in the protests. The Intelligence Ministry, Iran’s state police, has imprisoned a number of student activists in the past few weeks. Their immediate freedom is one of the demands of the student movement.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Amnesty International Issues Urgent Appeal
Amnesty International today issued an urgent appeal for action for students detained in Iran. Amnesty said between 20 and 30 students associated with the student group Students for Freedom and Equality (Daneshjouyan-e Azadi Khah va Barabar Talab) are being detained without charge mostly in Tehran but also in other cities.
The students were arrested following scores of demonstrations and mass sit-in’s to mark the National Student Day, 7 December (16 Azar).
The students were arrested following scores of demonstrations and mass sit-in’s to mark the National Student Day, 7 December (16 Azar).
Moderates and Reformist Form Coalition
The elections for the new Majlis will be held on 14 March 2008. Today 21 centerist and center-right parties announced that they have formed a coalition to win back the new parliament. Former president Mohammad Khatami is the main force behind the coalition joined by another former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. They will try to unseat the extreme right and the fundamentalists who control the present Majlis.
Former Majlis speaker Medhi Karrubi was not part of the coalition, but his National Confidence Party is expected to file an electoral list with some 80% of candidates common with the new coalition. Together they would be a formidable force that could win the elections by a large margin.
It is not known to what extend the Guardian Council would disqualify the coalition candidates from running in the elections. In the Islamic Republic version of democracy, the unelected supreme leader selects half of the Guardians, with the other half nominated by the head of the judiciary who himself is selected by the supreme leader. The Guardian Council has in the past disqualified many moderate and reformist candidates and is expected to do so now. The question is how extensive this vetting process would be. The Guardian Council might be the best hope for the fundamentalists to retain the control of Majlis.
Former Majlis speaker Medhi Karrubi was not part of the coalition, but his National Confidence Party is expected to file an electoral list with some 80% of candidates common with the new coalition. Together they would be a formidable force that could win the elections by a large margin.
It is not known to what extend the Guardian Council would disqualify the coalition candidates from running in the elections. In the Islamic Republic version of democracy, the unelected supreme leader selects half of the Guardians, with the other half nominated by the head of the judiciary who himself is selected by the supreme leader. The Guardian Council has in the past disqualified many moderate and reformist candidates and is expected to do so now. The question is how extensive this vetting process would be. The Guardian Council might be the best hope for the fundamentalists to retain the control of Majlis.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Tehran: NIE Revisited
The US intelligence community’s latest NIE on Iran was initially welcomed by Iranian officials. President Ahmadinejad called it “the greatest victory in Iran’s history in this century.” In the week that followed, a number of politicians and the media began to reassess the effect of the NIE. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki stated that only 70% of the NIE is "correct." The moderate press warned against premature celebration of a report that has accused Iran of illicit nuclear activities until 2003.
In one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence, the new NIE said Iran did not have a bomb and it was not working on a bomb. Ahmadinejad immediately declared victory and expected to receive unqualified praise from all politicians. On the eve of all-important parliamentary elections, he also wanted to use the occasion to solidify his hold on power. Things did not quite turn out that way. Ahmad Tavakoli, and influential conservative member of Majlis, wrote an open letter to Ahmadinejad questioning the wisdom of “expressing boundless joy” with regard to the NIE.
Tavakoli argued that the NIE had accused Iran of illegal nuclear weapon activities in the past. Tavakoli also took exception with the wisdom of government’s pro- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stance. He warned Ahmadinejad that the government’s unqualified praise of the IAEA can backfire soon. It was the IAEA after all that had originally referred Iran’s case to the UNSC. Tavakoli’s letter was approvingly quoted in the more moderate and liberal press.
Comments by the US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at a conference in Bahrain fueled the concerns in Tehran. Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States. “Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike,” said Gates. The American defense chief also called on Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to never again resume its nuclear weapon program.
A day earlier, the commander of US naval forces in the region had warned against the Iranian threat. US Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had emphasized his concern by saying, “I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran.”
Tehran is starting to realize that the NIE might not have been an occasion for “boundless joy.” It is yet to be seen if Ahmadinejad’s early enthusiasm about the report, however, would translate into more moderation in his foreign policies and a move towards reconciliation with the West
In one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence, the new NIE said Iran did not have a bomb and it was not working on a bomb. Ahmadinejad immediately declared victory and expected to receive unqualified praise from all politicians. On the eve of all-important parliamentary elections, he also wanted to use the occasion to solidify his hold on power. Things did not quite turn out that way. Ahmad Tavakoli, and influential conservative member of Majlis, wrote an open letter to Ahmadinejad questioning the wisdom of “expressing boundless joy” with regard to the NIE.
Tavakoli argued that the NIE had accused Iran of illegal nuclear weapon activities in the past. Tavakoli also took exception with the wisdom of government’s pro- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stance. He warned Ahmadinejad that the government’s unqualified praise of the IAEA can backfire soon. It was the IAEA after all that had originally referred Iran’s case to the UNSC. Tavakoli’s letter was approvingly quoted in the more moderate and liberal press.
Comments by the US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at a conference in Bahrain fueled the concerns in Tehran. Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States. “Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike,” said Gates. The American defense chief also called on Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to never again resume its nuclear weapon program.
A day earlier, the commander of US naval forces in the region had warned against the Iranian threat. US Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had emphasized his concern by saying, “I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran.”
Tehran is starting to realize that the NIE might not have been an occasion for “boundless joy.” It is yet to be seen if Ahmadinejad’s early enthusiasm about the report, however, would translate into more moderation in his foreign policies and a move towards reconciliation with the West
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
News from Iran
The publication of US national Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program dominated the coverage in the local media. The NIE said Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. President Ahmadinejad called NIE a victory for Iran and said its publication was a step in the right direction in mending relations with Iran. In general, the Iranian officials and the media have welcomed the NIE. Some conservative dailies, however, warned against pre-mature celebration. They warned that NIE has indeed accused Iran of working on a bomb until 2003. The supreme leader also has unusually remained silent on the NIE. On regional developments, Ahmadinejad came under attack for his participation at the summit of the leaders of Persian Gulf countries. Aftab Yazd protested against summit communiqué calling on Iran to return its three islands to UAE. The use of the words “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by the Arab leaders at the summit was also a main point of contention. On economic front, Iran and China signed a $2-billion contract to develop an oil field in Iran. The media saw the contract as a first sign of the crumbling sanctions in the aftermath of NIE publication.
NIE and Iran’s Nuclear program
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “a victory for Iran” ; Ahmadinejad said the NIE put seal of approval on civilian nature of Iran's nuclear activities ; he added the reports released by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US intelligence community removed any ambiguity about Iranian nuclear program; Ahmadinejad said NIE conclusion on peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program was “a step forward” in mending relations with Iran.
· Iran’s Minister of Defense Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said there were many positive points in US NIE; Gen. Najjar said however Iran was never after developing nuclear weapons.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said nuclear energy is a vital and urgent need of Iran; Hosseini added the legitimate rights of Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes are not negotiable.
· President Ahmadinejad said a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program would have no legal basis; US is pushing for a third round of UN sanctions despite a new NIE; Ahmadinejad said he does not think any new resolutions will be on the way.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop an oil field regarded as an indication of crumbling sanctions against Iran in aftermath of publication of NIE.
· US President George Bush demanded Iran explain nuclear program; President Bush called on Iran to explain why it had a secretive nuclear program; he called Iran a “dangerous” country.
· Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear program is still dangerous; Olmert emphasized the NIE gives estimates of when Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon; Olmert said Iran is continuing its production of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles needed for a nuclear weapon program; Olmert added Iran could have the bomb by 2010.
· IAEA team arrived in Tehran for nuclear talks; talks were expected to focus on traces of weapon-grade enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors at Tehran's Technical University.
US-Iran Relations
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if US follow the step they have taken with their new NIE by making changes in their policies in the region, they will see immediate and positive results coming from Iran.
· President Ahmadinejad said he still wanted a debate with his US counterpart President Bush over world developments; Ahmadinejad first proposed such debate in September; the proposal is still on the table, he said.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US seeks to dominate energy sources of the Persian Gulf region; Hossieni said providing security for Israel, escalating arms race in the region, and making regional countries suspicious of Iran were among main goals of US; he added if US changes its policies on Iran, the grounds for expansion of political and economic relations between the two countries would be prepared.
· US built an observation base on Iraq-Iran border near Iraqi town of Badrah to monitor flows of goods and people from Iran; Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, Commander of US 3rd ID, said containing Iran “is now clearly part of US military mission”; Gen. Lynch labeled Iran’s policies in Iraq “destabilizing”; Iran has four official border crossings with Iraq.
· US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met Israel’s defense minister and armed forces commander on Iran; Adm. Mullen’s spokesman said Iran is among the subjects discussed.
Leading Regional Storylines
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran welcomed Iraq's new proposal to develop a regional security pact among all countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad described the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Qatar as very positive and constructive; he advised GCC critics to abandon pessimistic approaches and be realistic.
· Director of an influential Iranian think-tank, Mohammad Javad Larijani, defended Ahmadinejad's participation in summit of leaders of Persian Gulf countries in Doha; Member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli had criticized Ahmadinejad for going to Doha; Tavakoli protested against summit communiqué against Iran’s ownership of three islands claimed by UAE; Doha critics also protested against use of “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by Arab leaders during the summit; Larijani said he expected GCC to restructure itself and develop into Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to include Iran, Iraq and Yemen.
· A regional security conference focusing on Iran was held in Bahrain; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend Bahrain conference; US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of US; Qatar and some other Gulf countries protested US military threats against Iran.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop Yadavaran oil field in southwestern Iran; Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said new contract indicates Washington's claims that international firms are not willing to invest in Iran are baseless .
· President Pervez Musharraf has said even if India does not agree to terms of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan will continue negotiations to import gas from Iran.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Thousand of students at e University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Ahmadinejad government; the students chanted “Death or Liberty!” and “No to War; No to Fascism!”; the demonstrations were to mark the National Student Day (16 Azar); Ministry of Intelligence has arrested a number of “student agitators.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini expressed regrets over the killing of French citizen Julien Van Waesberghe in Isfahan; Van Waesberghe, 24, was waiting for a bus to Yazd after visiting Isfahan; the foreign ministry spokesman said Isfahan Police has identified the killer and is vigorously trying to arrest him.
NIE and Iran’s Nuclear program
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “a victory for Iran” ; Ahmadinejad said the NIE put seal of approval on civilian nature of Iran's nuclear activities ; he added the reports released by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US intelligence community removed any ambiguity about Iranian nuclear program; Ahmadinejad said NIE conclusion on peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program was “a step forward” in mending relations with Iran.
· Iran’s Minister of Defense Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said there were many positive points in US NIE; Gen. Najjar said however Iran was never after developing nuclear weapons.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said nuclear energy is a vital and urgent need of Iran; Hosseini added the legitimate rights of Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes are not negotiable.
· President Ahmadinejad said a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program would have no legal basis; US is pushing for a third round of UN sanctions despite a new NIE; Ahmadinejad said he does not think any new resolutions will be on the way.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop an oil field regarded as an indication of crumbling sanctions against Iran in aftermath of publication of NIE.
· US President George Bush demanded Iran explain nuclear program; President Bush called on Iran to explain why it had a secretive nuclear program; he called Iran a “dangerous” country.
· Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear program is still dangerous; Olmert emphasized the NIE gives estimates of when Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon; Olmert said Iran is continuing its production of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles needed for a nuclear weapon program; Olmert added Iran could have the bomb by 2010.
· IAEA team arrived in Tehran for nuclear talks; talks were expected to focus on traces of weapon-grade enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors at Tehran's Technical University.
US-Iran Relations
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if US follow the step they have taken with their new NIE by making changes in their policies in the region, they will see immediate and positive results coming from Iran.
· President Ahmadinejad said he still wanted a debate with his US counterpart President Bush over world developments; Ahmadinejad first proposed such debate in September; the proposal is still on the table, he said.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US seeks to dominate energy sources of the Persian Gulf region; Hossieni said providing security for Israel, escalating arms race in the region, and making regional countries suspicious of Iran were among main goals of US; he added if US changes its policies on Iran, the grounds for expansion of political and economic relations between the two countries would be prepared.
· US built an observation base on Iraq-Iran border near Iraqi town of Badrah to monitor flows of goods and people from Iran; Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, Commander of US 3rd ID, said containing Iran “is now clearly part of US military mission”; Gen. Lynch labeled Iran’s policies in Iraq “destabilizing”; Iran has four official border crossings with Iraq.
· US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met Israel’s defense minister and armed forces commander on Iran; Adm. Mullen’s spokesman said Iran is among the subjects discussed.
Leading Regional Storylines
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran welcomed Iraq's new proposal to develop a regional security pact among all countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad described the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Qatar as very positive and constructive; he advised GCC critics to abandon pessimistic approaches and be realistic.
· Director of an influential Iranian think-tank, Mohammad Javad Larijani, defended Ahmadinejad's participation in summit of leaders of Persian Gulf countries in Doha; Member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli had criticized Ahmadinejad for going to Doha; Tavakoli protested against summit communiqué against Iran’s ownership of three islands claimed by UAE; Doha critics also protested against use of “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by Arab leaders during the summit; Larijani said he expected GCC to restructure itself and develop into Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to include Iran, Iraq and Yemen.
· A regional security conference focusing on Iran was held in Bahrain; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend Bahrain conference; US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of US; Qatar and some other Gulf countries protested US military threats against Iran.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop Yadavaran oil field in southwestern Iran; Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said new contract indicates Washington's claims that international firms are not willing to invest in Iran are baseless .
· President Pervez Musharraf has said even if India does not agree to terms of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan will continue negotiations to import gas from Iran.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Thousand of students at e University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Ahmadinejad government; the students chanted “Death or Liberty!” and “No to War; No to Fascism!”; the demonstrations were to mark the National Student Day (16 Azar); Ministry of Intelligence has arrested a number of “student agitators.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini expressed regrets over the killing of French citizen Julien Van Waesberghe in Isfahan; Van Waesberghe, 24, was waiting for a bus to Yazd after visiting Isfahan; the foreign ministry spokesman said Isfahan Police has identified the killer and is vigorously trying to arrest him.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Iranian Students Hold Large Demonstrations
Thousands of students at the University of Tehran holding demonstrations against the government. Sunday 9 December 2007. The Persian placard reads: "Death or Liberty" . AP Photo Thousand of students at the University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Admadinejad’s government. The students from Amir Kabir and other universities in Tehran also joined the protests at the University of Tehran campus.
The protests were held to mark 16 Azar, the National Student Day. 16 Azar has been observed by Iranian students since 1954 when three students were killed by the police at the University of Tehran campus during a demonstration against the visiting US Vice-President Richard Nixon and against the government of the shah.
This year’s demonstrations specifically targeted Ahmadinejad government and the intelligence ministry’s detention of student activists in the days leading to the National Student Day.
“Death or Liberty!”; “No War, No Fascism!” and “Free Student Prisoners!” were among the slogans chanted by the students today.
The protests were held to mark 16 Azar, the National Student Day. 16 Azar has been observed by Iranian students since 1954 when three students were killed by the police at the University of Tehran campus during a demonstration against the visiting US Vice-President Richard Nixon and against the government of the shah.
This year’s demonstrations specifically targeted Ahmadinejad government and the intelligence ministry’s detention of student activists in the days leading to the National Student Day.
“Death or Liberty!”; “No War, No Fascism!” and “Free Student Prisoners!” were among the slogans chanted by the students today.
Iran Bomb by 2010: Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert today said Iran could have nuclear bomb by 2010. The Israeli assessment contradicts the new US National Intelligence Estimate. The NIE report said Iran’s nuclear weapon program has remained on hold since 2003.
The Israeli estimate is based on Iran’s current capabilities to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles. Israel says an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose a threat to its existence. Israel has the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East.
The Israeli estimate is based on Iran’s current capabilities to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles. Israel says an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose a threat to its existence. Israel has the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East.
China & Iran Sign $2 Billion Contract
Iran and China today signed a two billion dollar oil contract. China’s Sinopec will develop Iran’s vast oil field of Yadavaran.
The contract is considered a victory for Iran’s oil industry which has been under US sanctions. This is the first major international contract Iran has signed since the publication of the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Monday.
The talks to finalize the contract had been long held up by disagreements involving the rate of return on investment for Sinopec. China’s national oil company will now receive a 14.98% ROI.
Yadavaran will be producing 185,000 barrels of oil a day within the next seven years.
The contract is considered a victory for Iran’s oil industry which has been under US sanctions. This is the first major international contract Iran has signed since the publication of the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Monday.
The talks to finalize the contract had been long held up by disagreements involving the rate of return on investment for Sinopec. China’s national oil company will now receive a 14.98% ROI.
Yadavaran will be producing 185,000 barrels of oil a day within the next seven years.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Bahrain Conference
The regional security conference sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies got underway today in Bahrain. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki decided at the last minute neither to attend nor to send a delegation to the conference.
US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told the gathering that Iran needs to suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to not develop nuclear weapons in the future. He also attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States.
"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," said Gates.
On Friday, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had said, "I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran."
Some of the leaders of Persian Gulf states cautioned against isolating Iran in the region.
“I don't think we can try to solve our problems through trying to seal Iran off from the region. They are a very important player," said Sheikh Hamed, Prime Minister of Qatar. He added pushing a military confrontation with Iran is not in the best interests of GCC countries.
US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told the gathering that Iran needs to suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to not develop nuclear weapons in the future. He also attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States.
"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," said Gates.
On Friday, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had said, "I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran."
Some of the leaders of Persian Gulf states cautioned against isolating Iran in the region.
“I don't think we can try to solve our problems through trying to seal Iran off from the region. They are a very important player," said Sheikh Hamed, Prime Minister of Qatar. He added pushing a military confrontation with Iran is not in the best interests of GCC countries.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Postponing the Conflict
The new NIE is one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence. Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. The earliest date it can build a bomb is 2009, but that’s highly unlikely. It’s more likely to be in 2010-2015, if it ever decides to make it. Iran’s nuke program does not pose a clear and present danger. The NIE now provides a pretext for US government to de-escalate tension and avoid a military conflict with Iran.
Not so fast, the skeptics argue. The NIE indeed confirms the existence of a nuclear weapon program prior to 2003. Iranians decided to suspend their activities under the threat of US troops who had just invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. International pressure kept them from reactivating the program. If Iran wants to produce a bomb, they can do so. The decision is theirs alone.
The wild card is Israel. Even if the chance of an Iranian bomb by 2009 is very low, that minimal chance is still a very serious matter for the Israelis. The IDF intelligence and the Mosad are surely examining their own data in light of the new NIE, but knowing the Israelis it is safe to assume that they would have more confidence in their own information and that they would try in the coming months to convince the Americans to reassess their sources and their findings.
The Newsweek is reporting that US intelligence officials deny categorically that their main source was former IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari, but instead they relied heavily on an electronic intercept in which an Iranian scientist was overheard complaining earlier this year about how Iran's nuclear weapons program had been shut down in 2003. The CIA and the entire US intelligence community must have high confidence in their source to produce one of the biggest reversals in community’s key judgments.
Skepticism notwithstanding, in practical political terms the new NIE has postponed any military conflict with Iran, at lease for the Americans.
Not so fast, the skeptics argue. The NIE indeed confirms the existence of a nuclear weapon program prior to 2003. Iranians decided to suspend their activities under the threat of US troops who had just invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. International pressure kept them from reactivating the program. If Iran wants to produce a bomb, they can do so. The decision is theirs alone.
The wild card is Israel. Even if the chance of an Iranian bomb by 2009 is very low, that minimal chance is still a very serious matter for the Israelis. The IDF intelligence and the Mosad are surely examining their own data in light of the new NIE, but knowing the Israelis it is safe to assume that they would have more confidence in their own information and that they would try in the coming months to convince the Americans to reassess their sources and their findings.
The Newsweek is reporting that US intelligence officials deny categorically that their main source was former IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari, but instead they relied heavily on an electronic intercept in which an Iranian scientist was overheard complaining earlier this year about how Iran's nuclear weapons program had been shut down in 2003. The CIA and the entire US intelligence community must have high confidence in their source to produce one of the biggest reversals in community’s key judgments.
Skepticism notwithstanding, in practical political terms the new NIE has postponed any military conflict with Iran, at lease for the Americans.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Tehran: All-Clear Signal, or Not?
The US intelligence community in an astonishing report reversed its previous findings and now believes that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in fall 2003. President Ahmadinejad immediately declared a victory for Iran. Although the real effects of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) are beginning to be felt, it is apparent that a mere three-page judgment statement on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has changed all political calculations about Iran and inside Iran.
The big question is whether the report is an all-clear signal for Tehran. The NIE does not give us any facts, only judgments. It tells us the 2005 report by the same agencies on the same subject contained wrong judgments.
We can not say which version is more accurate without knowing the facts. We only hope that the facts behind the new set of judgments were not limited to what is the talk on the street that the information on halting the work on the bomb was provided by IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari who defected to the West earlier this year and is now considered to be a CIA asset.
We also hope that the facts were not solely based on some published reports about an intercepted phone conversation between an IRGC general and the political leadership in Tehran on the necessity to resume the atomic work. Both sets of information could be as wrong as those that the 2005 judgments were based on.
What we can say with certainty is that the report has changed all political calculations. No matter how credible are the new judgments, in practical term the US leverage on Iran’s nuclear program all but disappeared on Monday. No more WWIII either. But the report does not get Iran off the hook entirely.
The NIE states that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program few months after Saddam was overthrown in Baghdad. Tehran must not be quite as immune to foreign pressure as it likes to portray itself! If the decision to halt the work on the bomb was based on a cold calculation on the part of the ayatollahs to keep away US troops from entering Iran during those victorious early days of Iraq war, a different set of calculations also based on cold realities on the ground can reverse their decision: US has its hands full in Iraq, as said many times by Ahmadinejad, so let’s make the bomb. Political decisions can by definition get reversed.
Tehran’s halt of atomic work after Saddam’s overthrow also shows that with the right amount of pressure, the international community can change Iran’s behavior; much less costly way of doing things than a WWIII.
This brings us to the timing of the report. The White House did not need to authorize the publication of the NIE. Could it be that those within the administration that always preferred the lets-change-Tehran’s-behavior solution now had the upper hand and by releasing the report checkmated the proponents of the military action against Iran? Whether or not they had anything to do with the decision to publish the NIE, they now have the upper hand. No military action can be conceivable after the report.
In Tehran, the NIE brought an unexpected victory for Ahmadinejad who was resisting pressures from the moderates and the reformists to revise the country’s nuclear policy. Only three months before the all-important parliamentary elections in Iran, Ahmadinejad gets a shot in the arm which may prove decisive in who would control the Majlis. Ahmadinejad must wonder how ironic can it get to receive such valuable help from the US intelligence community.
The Iranian opposition also is once again learning a time-honored fact: in the struggle against the government do not rely on foreign policy. A report published on the other side of the world can change all calculations. Stick with the basics. Democracy, human rights and the establishment of a progressive Iran.
The big question is whether the report is an all-clear signal for Tehran. The NIE does not give us any facts, only judgments. It tells us the 2005 report by the same agencies on the same subject contained wrong judgments.
We can not say which version is more accurate without knowing the facts. We only hope that the facts behind the new set of judgments were not limited to what is the talk on the street that the information on halting the work on the bomb was provided by IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari who defected to the West earlier this year and is now considered to be a CIA asset.
We also hope that the facts were not solely based on some published reports about an intercepted phone conversation between an IRGC general and the political leadership in Tehran on the necessity to resume the atomic work. Both sets of information could be as wrong as those that the 2005 judgments were based on.
What we can say with certainty is that the report has changed all political calculations. No matter how credible are the new judgments, in practical term the US leverage on Iran’s nuclear program all but disappeared on Monday. No more WWIII either. But the report does not get Iran off the hook entirely.
The NIE states that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program few months after Saddam was overthrown in Baghdad. Tehran must not be quite as immune to foreign pressure as it likes to portray itself! If the decision to halt the work on the bomb was based on a cold calculation on the part of the ayatollahs to keep away US troops from entering Iran during those victorious early days of Iraq war, a different set of calculations also based on cold realities on the ground can reverse their decision: US has its hands full in Iraq, as said many times by Ahmadinejad, so let’s make the bomb. Political decisions can by definition get reversed.
Tehran’s halt of atomic work after Saddam’s overthrow also shows that with the right amount of pressure, the international community can change Iran’s behavior; much less costly way of doing things than a WWIII.
This brings us to the timing of the report. The White House did not need to authorize the publication of the NIE. Could it be that those within the administration that always preferred the lets-change-Tehran’s-behavior solution now had the upper hand and by releasing the report checkmated the proponents of the military action against Iran? Whether or not they had anything to do with the decision to publish the NIE, they now have the upper hand. No military action can be conceivable after the report.
In Tehran, the NIE brought an unexpected victory for Ahmadinejad who was resisting pressures from the moderates and the reformists to revise the country’s nuclear policy. Only three months before the all-important parliamentary elections in Iran, Ahmadinejad gets a shot in the arm which may prove decisive in who would control the Majlis. Ahmadinejad must wonder how ironic can it get to receive such valuable help from the US intelligence community.
The Iranian opposition also is once again learning a time-honored fact: in the struggle against the government do not rely on foreign policy. A report published on the other side of the world can change all calculations. Stick with the basics. Democracy, human rights and the establishment of a progressive Iran.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Nuclear-Free Iran
The US intelligence community in an astonishing report has reversed its previous findings and now believes with high confidence that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in fall 2003. The new National Intelligence Estimate believes with moderate confidence Iran will not be able to enrich enough fissile material for a weapon until sometime between 2010 and 2015.
For many Iran analysts, including this lowly reporter, the findings were as explosive as highly enriched uranium! How could we now explain the nuclear policy of the Islamic Republic if the country was not working on a bomb? Has the Iranian government taken life-and-death risks only to enrich uranium to run an electricity-generating power plant?
The growing isolation of Iran as a result of its non-compromising policy on uranium enrichment has already been a disaster for the country’s foreign trade and international relations. As late as last Friday, the chief nuclear negotiator of the extremist government in power in Tehran made such a scene during his meeting with EU foreign policy chief that it even convinced China to agree to a third round of sanctions against Iran (please see the article below posted earlier today).
Short of irrationality and a Saddam-syndrome prevalent among the power circles in Tehran, the nuclear policy of this government can not be easily explained and can only result in more serious disasters for the country.
For many Iran analysts, including this lowly reporter, the findings were as explosive as highly enriched uranium! How could we now explain the nuclear policy of the Islamic Republic if the country was not working on a bomb? Has the Iranian government taken life-and-death risks only to enrich uranium to run an electricity-generating power plant?
The growing isolation of Iran as a result of its non-compromising policy on uranium enrichment has already been a disaster for the country’s foreign trade and international relations. As late as last Friday, the chief nuclear negotiator of the extremist government in power in Tehran made such a scene during his meeting with EU foreign policy chief that it even convinced China to agree to a third round of sanctions against Iran (please see the article below posted earlier today).
Short of irrationality and a Saddam-syndrome prevalent among the power circles in Tehran, the nuclear policy of this government can not be easily explained and can only result in more serious disasters for the country.
China to Support Sanctions
Reports from Paris and Washington indicate that China will back new sanctions against Iran. The move will clear the way for a third UN Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
China’s change of heart came about after EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed disappointment after his meeting on Friday with Saeed Jalili, Iran’s new chief nuclear negotiator. The diplomats in Paris called that meeting “a disaster” for Iran. Jalili called it “a good” meeting.
It is increasingly apparent that the extremist government of Iran has lost touch with realities on the ground. Last week they famously tried to dissuade Arab leaders from attending the Annapolis conference. 20 Arab and Muslim countries, including Syria, attended. Then Jalili presents a disastrous performance during his meeting with Solana and calls it good.
The new UN sanctions are expected to include tougher business and banking transactions and traveling ban for Iranian leaders.
China’s change of heart came about after EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed disappointment after his meeting on Friday with Saeed Jalili, Iran’s new chief nuclear negotiator. The diplomats in Paris called that meeting “a disaster” for Iran. Jalili called it “a good” meeting.
It is increasingly apparent that the extremist government of Iran has lost touch with realities on the ground. Last week they famously tried to dissuade Arab leaders from attending the Annapolis conference. 20 Arab and Muslim countries, including Syria, attended. Then Jalili presents a disastrous performance during his meeting with Solana and calls it good.
The new UN sanctions are expected to include tougher business and banking transactions and traveling ban for Iranian leaders.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Report Calls for US-Israel Dialogue on Iran
A report by Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) released today calls on Israel and US to jointly examine ways to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The report authored by Chuck Freilich, a former National Security Council official, is entitled “Speaking About the Unspeakable.”
Freilich says Israel would prefer that the US attack Iran. However, Israel believes it can successfully attack Iran on its own and has not shared its plans with the US for fear of a US veto. The report says the US has also kept secret from Israel any intention of attacking Iran. Hence, Freilich calls for detailed discussions between the US and Israel on possible military action against Iran and Iran’s possible responses.
Freilich also calls for US-Israeli dialogue on an alternative of how to live with a nuclear Iran.
WINEP is an influential Washington-DC based think-tank specializing on US Middle East policy. WINEP is regarded as having close ties to American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Freilich says Israel would prefer that the US attack Iran. However, Israel believes it can successfully attack Iran on its own and has not shared its plans with the US for fear of a US veto. The report says the US has also kept secret from Israel any intention of attacking Iran. Hence, Freilich calls for detailed discussions between the US and Israel on possible military action against Iran and Iran’s possible responses.
Freilich also calls for US-Israeli dialogue on an alternative of how to live with a nuclear Iran.
WINEP is an influential Washington-DC based think-tank specializing on US Middle East policy. WINEP is regarded as having close ties to American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Saturday, December 1, 2007
New UN Sanctions Possible
A French official said today that US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany may have an agreement “in the short term” on the third UN resolution against Iran (AP, 1 December). The Group of 5+1 met in Paris today a day after Iran refused to offer any concessions with regards to its uranium enrichment program during the last-minute talks with EU officials.
The French official told AP that the meeting of the Group of 5+1 “was held in positive spirit.” He added, “The elements allow us to project that we could have a resolution in the short term.”
The French official told AP that the meeting of the Group of 5+1 “was held in positive spirit.” He added, “The elements allow us to project that we could have a resolution in the short term.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)