Oil Up 60% in 2007

Crude oil prices closed at nearly $96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today for an increase of $35 per barrel in 2007.

Iran has the world’s second largest crude-oil reserves, estimated at 138 billion barrels, valued today at more than $13 trillion (with 12 zeros!)

Iran’s oil export revenues increased by more than $30 billion (9 zeros) in 2007 alone to sit at close to $80 billion for the year.

It is ironic that the government is so incapable of managing the extra cash on hand. Its cash-flow policies have created a seemingly out-of-control inflation, with a rate reaching the 25% danger mark.

Press TV or Press Photoshop?

Iran’s Press TV posted a photo of Iranians demonstrating their love for Jews on its website. The picture, however, was originally taken in a pro-government demonstration with the same sign reading, “Nuclear Energy Is Our Undeniable Right!” Good Photoshop, shameful journalism.

Thanks to Gateway Pundits for exposing the fake photo: (http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/12/sad-iranian-press-tv-forced-to-run.html)

and Kamangir, a popular Iranian website, for running the story:

(http://kamangir.net/).

Algiers Treaty Revisited

The Iraqi government announced today that it will send a delegation to Iran to seek changes to the 1975 Algiers Treaty that defines the two countries’ borders. Iraq’s deputy foreign minister Labeed Abbawi said the delegation would leave for Tehran “in the coming days.” (Reuters)

Iraqi President Jalal Talebani had earlier called the Algiers Treaty void. The treaty was signed by Iraq’s then-Vice President Saddam Hussein and the shah of Iran in the Algerian capital in 1975.

Talebani today distanced himself from his own remarks and said the treaty could not be nullified unilaterally. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki welcomed Talebani’s change of heart. “The Iraqi president's [new] remarks over Algiers agreement will strengthen Iran-Iraq ties,” said Mottaki. (ISNA)

The Iraqis insist that some changes in the treaty are necessary to stop any future disputes over oil wells situated in the border region. The Iranians see the agreement as a binding treaty between two nations irrespective of their current governments.

Baghi’s Condition Alarming

Reporters Without Borders today issued an alarm on the health of Emadoldin Baghi, the Iranian journalist and human rights activist. Baghi suffered double heart attacks at Evin prison on 26 December and was transferred to the emergency room at Qamar Bani Hachem hospital. He was returned to the prison yesterday.

“The conditions in which Baghi is being held are unacceptable,” said Reporters Without Borders. “He has been in solitary confinement ever since he was first taken to Evin, as if imprisonment was not already enough punishment. As his state of health has worsened steadily during the past two months, it is inconceivable that he should be expected to convalesce in prison.”

Saleh Nikbakht, Baghi’s lawyer, said the deterioration in Baghi's health was mainly due to the appalling conditions in the prison and to the harassment to which he has been subjected during interrogation sessions. “Emadoldin Baghi will not survive another heart attack,” he said.

Russia Denies Iran Claim on Missile Sales

Russia's Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service (FSVTS) denied the claim by Iran’s defense minister that Russia was prepared to sell advanced S-300 air defense missile system to Iran.

Brig. Gen. Mohammad Mostafa Najjar surprised the world earlier this week by announcing that Russia had signed a contract with Iran to sell S-300 missiles despite a strong US warning against the sale.

“The question of deliveries of S-300 systems to Iran, is not currently taking place, is not being considered and is not being discussed at this time with the Iranian side," said the FSVTS statement.

Russia Pressuring Iran to Change Behavior

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Moscow daily Vremya Novostei today that Iran has no need to proceed with its nuclear enrichment program now that Russia is delivering it the fuel for its nuclear reactor.

Lavrov said by ending the enrichment program Iran will end any suspension that it still operates a secret nuclear weapon program. He suggested Iran will benefit by suspending its enrichment program, including a normalization of relations with the US.

Lavrov stated Russia would support new sanctions against Iran if it did not stop its enrichment program.

Russia also announced today that it will sell Iran its most advanced S-300 air defense system capable of shooting down any US or Israeli jet fighters.

The combination of offering Iran advanced military hardware and nuclear fuel and at the same time threatening it with new sanctions are seen as part of a complex Russian policy to change Iran’s behavior and in the process turning Iran into a Russian client.

Mottaki Arrives in Bahrain

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Manama last night and was welcomed by Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid. Mottaki will take part in the first meeting of Iran-Bahrain cooperation commission.

Iranian-Bahraini relations faced a major crisis when Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Iran’s influential daily Keyhan, reiterated a long-standing popular Iranian claim over Bahrain. The government has distanced itself from Shariatmadari’s call for Bahrain’s return to Iran.

The Shah’s government had renounced Iran’s claim over Bahrain in 1971 in return for the ownership of three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tombs, now claimed by UAE.

Enriched Uranium: From Russia with Love (or without it)

After years of debates and UN sanctions over Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Russia began delivering to Iran uranium U-235 isotope enriched by 3.62%. The enriched uranium will be used at Bushehr’s nuclear reactor, the first such power plant in Iran. The arrival of enriched uranium brought expression of relief and approval in Tehran. Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), welcomed the delivery and said it was “particularly important because of Russia’s role in the UN Security Council and 5+1 group.” Russia announced all deliveries of nuclear fuel to Bushehr will be under IAEA control. A Russian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has submitted written guarantees that the fuel will be used only for Bushehr.

The expression of relief and approval notwithstanding, the Iranian leaders must be, or should be, very concerned. As soon as the enriched uranium shipment arrived from Siberia, Tehran’s long-standing argument in defense of its enrichment program ceased to exist. A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, summed up Tehran’s predicament: “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves.”

What seemed at first an Iranian victory in having the ability even to import enriched uranium in the face of UN and US sanctions, is now appearing as a turning point in uniting the major powers, including Russia and China, against Iran’s enrichment program.

The pressure on Tehran to suspend its program will multiply in the coming weeks. A Russian foreign ministry statement announcing the delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran might have summed up the kind of pressure in the making: “New conditions have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UN Security Council resolutions.” UNSC has passed two resolutions requiring Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

President Bush alluded to Tehran’s difficulties now that they have received their enriched uranium. He said the Russian shipments of nuclear fuel to Iran meant the Islamic Republic did not need to enrich uranium, Iran “will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”

The Iranians scrambled to come up with answers. IAEO’s Aghazadeh told reporters in Tehran that Iran’s own enriched uranium will be used for a power plant that is to be built, the Dakhovin. Iran analysts believe the Dakhovin plant is in very early stages of planning and the start of its construction and completion would take years or decades to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program was needed to fuel Dakhovin was met with widespread skepticism.

Sitting in Tehran, the world seemed to be a much simpler place without the gift from Russia, with or without love. Tehran now needs to seriously reevaluate its enrichment program or face a unified front for more sanctions.

News from Iran

The local media highlighted positive reports on Iran’s foreign relations in the wake of the recent US National Intelligence Estimate. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first leader of the Islamic Republic to perform hajj in Mecca at the personal invitation of Saudi King Abdullah. Ahmadinejad’s visit was seen as a consolidation of warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia began delivering nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr power plant and signed an agreement to sell Iran 130 Tupolev civilian aircraft. Iranian officials rejected calls to suspend their uranium enrichment program now that Russians have provided fuel for the country’s first nuclear power plant nearing completion. On the domestic front, anti-government student protests continued for the second week and twenty-nine reformist and moderate parties formed a grand coalition to challenge pro-government groups in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani will lead the coalition.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Russia began delivering nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor; Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), welcomed Russia’s delivery of nuclear fuel to Bushehr; he said the arrival of Russian nuclear fuel was “particularly important because of Russia’s role in the UN Security Council and 5+1 group”; Aghazadeh said 1,000-megawatt power plant at Bushehr was 95% complete and it was expected to go online in 2008; first consignment of fuel delivered to Bushehr contained 163 main and 17 auxiliary fuel assemblies of U235 isotope enriched by 3.62%.
· Russia announced all deliveries of nuclear fuel to Bushehr will be under IAEA control; a Russian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has submitted written guarantees that the fuel will be used only for Bushehr; Russia contended “new conditions” have been created whereby Iran should now undertake steps required by UNSC resolutions.
· US President George Bush said Iran now needs to halt enrichment of uranium; a White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, also said, “If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves”; President Bush said, “Iran was a threat to peace, Iran is a threat to peace, and Iran will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment.”
· Iran rejected calls to suspend its uranium enrichment program; IAEO Deputy Director Mohammad Saeedi said delivery of nuclear fuel by Russia did not mean Iran would suspend its enrichment activities; IAEO Director Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran was planning to build a 360-megawatt nuclear power station and needed to continue its enrichment program.

US-Iran Relations

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program a “declaration of surrender” by US; he added the NIE was a “change in their attitude” and it was “a correct move.”
· US State Department Acting Undersecretary John Rood said in a conference in Budapest that US needs a shield against Iran’s missile threat.
· Mohsen Hakim, the Iraqi political leader and advisor to United Iraq Coalition, said attitudes of US officials toward Iran has changed for better; Hakim, in Washington for talks with US officials, said US-Iran relations was a topic of discussion; Hakim added, “Perhaps, the change of tone in Washington was consistent with US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) acknowledging non-diversion of Iranian nuclear program.”
· Iran and US talks were planned at ambassador level; Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said there were “no need to raise the level of talks”; Iran agreed to a fourth round of talks with US on Iraqi security; three previous meetings were held in Baghdad earlier this year with a fourth expected to be held in January 2008.

Major Regional/International Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first leader of the Islamic Republic to perform hajj in Mecca; Ahmadinejad arrived in Saudi Arabia at invitation of King Abdullah; Ahmadinejad’s visit was seen as a consolidation of warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
· GCC Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said Persian Gulf states will not develop their cooperation with Iran before reaching a settlement on three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs claimed by UAE; an Iranian foreign minsitry spokesman rejected any negotiation or arbitration on the islands and said the islands were an integral part of Iranian territory.
· Russia announced it will sell 130 Tupolev civilian aircrafts to Iran; announcement came shortly after Russia delivered first shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr power plant.
· China and Iran signed a $2 billion dollar oil contract; China agreed to invest in Yadegaran oil fields in southwestern Iran; the contract was the first major oil contract signed after release of US NIE; Iran signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease banking restrictions on Iranian commercial transactions; US sanctioned a number of Iranian banks, including Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial banking institution; Iran wanted to keep Bank Melli operations in China intact.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran was getting close to restore ties with Egypt; he added “the Islamic Republic is prepared to open its embassy in Cairo in the shortest time”; Iran’s Speaker of parliament, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, was scheduled to visit Cairo in late January; Haddad-Adel will be highest ranking Iranian official to go to Egypt since Iran’s 1979 revolution.
· Iran and Pakistan resumed talks on IPI gas pipeline; India was the third part of IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) proposed pipeline but did not attend the meeting; officials said Iran and Pakistan reached agreement on final gas sale purchase agreement; the agreement called for Iran to build pipeline to Pakistani border and Pakistan would built pipeline in its territory.
· Iran protested to Azerbaijan over spy trial; Iranian foreign ministry summoned Azeri ambassador to Tehran over “baseless accusations” of Iranian agents plotting a coup against Azeri government; an Azerbaijani court convicted and sentenced 15 people on charges of conspiring with Iranian intelligence services to topple the government of President Ilham Aliyev.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini condemned Israeli air raids in Gaza; Hosseini said “Israel’s targeted assassinations and killing of innocent civilians are true achievements of Annapolis conference.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called Palestine conference in Paris “ineffective” and “inefficient”; Hosseini said Paris conference did not examine Palestinian issues fairly.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Hundreds of students held rallies at University of Tehran against Ahmadinejad’s government; the protests were second large demonstration at the university in less than a week.
· Twenty-nine moderate and reformist parties formed a grand coalition to challenge pro-government groups in upcoming Majlis elections; former presidents Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani were main figures behind new coalition.
· IRGC Navy staged naval war games in Persian Gulf; IRGC Naval Commander Brig. Gen. Ali Razmjoo said exercises were aimed at “enhancing the combat readiness” of his force; Gen. Ramzjoo said his forces fired surface-to-air missiles at mock hostile targets and tested new weapons and equipment; two-day maneuvers were second phase of “Ettehad-86” (Unity-08) war games.
· Iranian troops killed 12 members of Jundallah rebel group in Iranian Baluchistan.
· Chris du Burgh will sing “The Lady in Red” and will play with Iran’s top pop group Arian next summer in Tehran; the Irish singer will be the first Westerner to play a concert in Iran since 1979 revolution.

Enriched Uranium Delivered

The first shipment of Bushehr nuclear power plant fuel was delivered to Iran today. The Bushehr nuclear power plant is 95% complete and is expected to go online next year.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aqazadeh, told reporters in Tehran that the fuel delivery does not mean Iran would stop its own uranium enrichment program. The enriched uranium will be used, he said, in a power plant to be built in Darkhovin, Khuzistan.

Iran analysts believe that the Darkhovin plant is in its very early phase of planning and the construction, let alone the completion, of such plant would take many years to come. Aghazadeh’s assertion that an accelerated uranium enrichment program is needed now to supply fuel to a plant that does not even exists was greeted with skepticism.

Russia’s director of the center for studies of modern Iran told reporters in Moscow that the fuel delivery under the supervision of IAEA removes the specter of a military conflict over Iran’s own nuclear program.

The White House today called the shipment another reason for Iran to suspend its own uranium enrichment program.

“If the Russians are providing the Iranians fuel, the Iranians have no reason to enrich uranium themselves," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

Iran to Buy Tupolev’s

Russia announced today that it will sell 130 Tupolev civilian aircrafts to Iran. The announcement came shortly after Russia delivered the first shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr plant.

Tupolev aircraft are unpopular with the Iranian public due to their high rate of fatal accidents in recent years.

Tatarstan’s Garbonov plant will manufacture the 130 Tupolev 214 and 334 for Iran.

Easing Banking Restrictions

Reports from Tehran indicate that during a recent trip to China, an Iranian delegation of businessmen signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease the banking restrictions on Iranian financial transactions (ISNA, 17 December).

The Bush administration’s policy of sanctioning Iranian banks, especially against Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial bank, seems to have run into stiff resistance by the Chinese as well as the Russian and Arab banks. The US wants to add Bank Melli to the list of sanctioned Iranian entities in a new UN Security Council sanction resolution early next year. China and Russia can bloc the move.

The new US NIE seems to have opened la lot of doors for Iran. The Russians started delivering enriched uranium to Bushehr nuclear reactor today. The Iranians did sign a $2 billion oil contract with the Chinese. And the resistance against further banking restrictions on Iran should be viewed in this light. The NIE has changed everything!

Three Islands Key to GCC Relations

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said today the Persian Gulf states will not develop their relations with Iran before reaching a settlement on the three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs owned by Iran and claimed by UAE.

“Without settling this dispute either by international arbitration or direct negotiation with the UAE, the Gulf states will not enhance their co-operation with Iran,” said Sheik Abdulrahman (The Gulf Times, 16 December).

In 1971, the shah’s government, under pressure from the British, dropped Iran’s historic claim over Bahrain and in return the departing British forces handed over the three islands to Iran. At the time the move was seen as treason by the shah to disclaim Bahrain in lieu of three uninhibited islands. Now UAE is claiming the ownership of those three islands.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was harshly criticized in Tehran for attending a recent GCC summit held in Doha at the end of which the GCC states passed a resolution reiterating UAE’s ownership of the three islands. Today’s announcement by Sheik Abdulrahman adds to the importance and the urgency of the issue for the region’s peace and security.

Islamic Republic is already under heavy criticism for its handling of the Caspian Sea legal status. A 1921 treaty signed by Lenin’s government in Moscow and the Persian government in Tehran had divided the Caspian equally between the two countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has been put under pressure from Russia to accept only 13% share of the Caspian based on the length of its coastline. The Iranians have reportedly agreed to a 20% equal share for the five Caspian states.

The opposition compares the government’s Caspian agreement to capitulations at Gulistan and Turkmenchay in 1800’s when Persia renounced its rule over the present-day Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and handed them to Tsarist Russia.

Handing over the three islands to UAE on top of an agreement to accept less than half for Caspian would fatally undermine the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

Student Protests Continue

Hundreds of students held rallies today at the University of Tehran against Ahmadinejad’s government and its crackdown on student movement. This is the second large demonstration at the university in less than a week.

Students from other universities reportedly joined in the protests. The Intelligence Ministry, Iran’s state police, has imprisoned a number of student activists in the past few weeks. Their immediate freedom is one of the demands of the student movement.

Amnesty International Issues Urgent Appeal

Amnesty International today issued an urgent appeal for action for students detained in Iran. Amnesty said between 20 and 30 students associated with the student group Students for Freedom and Equality (Daneshjouyan-e Azadi Khah va Barabar Talab) are being detained without charge mostly in Tehran but also in other cities.

The students were arrested following scores of demonstrations and mass sit-in’s to mark the National Student Day, 7 December (16 Azar).

Moderates and Reformist Form Coalition

The elections for the new Majlis will be held on 14 March 2008. Today 21 centerist and center-right parties announced that they have formed a coalition to win back the new parliament. Former president Mohammad Khatami is the main force behind the coalition joined by another former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. They will try to unseat the extreme right and the fundamentalists who control the present Majlis.

Former Majlis speaker Medhi Karrubi was not part of the coalition, but his National Confidence Party is expected to file an electoral list with some 80% of candidates common with the new coalition. Together they would be a formidable force that could win the elections by a large margin.

It is not known to what extend the Guardian Council would disqualify the coalition candidates from running in the elections. In the Islamic Republic version of democracy, the unelected supreme leader selects half of the Guardians, with the other half nominated by the head of the judiciary who himself is selected by the supreme leader. The Guardian Council has in the past disqualified many moderate and reformist candidates and is expected to do so now. The question is how extensive this vetting process would be. The Guardian Council might be the best hope for the fundamentalists to retain the control of Majlis.

Tehran: NIE Revisited

The US intelligence community’s latest NIE on Iran was initially welcomed by Iranian officials. President Ahmadinejad called it “the greatest victory in Iran’s history in this century.” In the week that followed, a number of politicians and the media began to reassess the effect of the NIE. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki stated that only 70% of the NIE is "correct." The moderate press warned against premature celebration of a report that has accused Iran of illicit nuclear activities until 2003.

In one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence, the new NIE said Iran did not have a bomb and it was not working on a bomb. Ahmadinejad immediately declared victory and expected to receive unqualified praise from all politicians. On the eve of all-important parliamentary elections, he also wanted to use the occasion to solidify his hold on power. Things did not quite turn out that way. Ahmad Tavakoli, and influential conservative member of Majlis, wrote an open letter to Ahmadinejad questioning the wisdom of “expressing boundless joy” with regard to the NIE.

Tavakoli argued that the NIE had accused Iran of illegal nuclear weapon activities in the past. Tavakoli also took exception with the wisdom of government’s pro- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stance. He warned Ahmadinejad that the government’s unqualified praise of the IAEA can backfire soon. It was the IAEA after all that had originally referred Iran’s case to the UNSC. Tavakoli’s letter was approvingly quoted in the more moderate and liberal press.

Comments by the US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at a conference in Bahrain fueled the concerns in Tehran. Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States. “Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike,” said Gates. The American defense chief also called on Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to never again resume its nuclear weapon program.

A day earlier, the commander of US naval forces in the region had warned against the Iranian threat. US Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had emphasized his concern by saying, “I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran.”

Tehran is starting to realize that the NIE might not have been an occasion for “boundless joy.” It is yet to be seen if Ahmadinejad’s early enthusiasm about the report, however, would translate into more moderation in his foreign policies and a move towards reconciliation with the West

News from Iran

The publication of US national Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program dominated the coverage in the local media. The NIE said Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. President Ahmadinejad called NIE a victory for Iran and said its publication was a step in the right direction in mending relations with Iran. In general, the Iranian officials and the media have welcomed the NIE. Some conservative dailies, however, warned against pre-mature celebration. They warned that NIE has indeed accused Iran of working on a bomb until 2003. The supreme leader also has unusually remained silent on the NIE. On regional developments, Ahmadinejad came under attack for his participation at the summit of the leaders of Persian Gulf countries. Aftab Yazd protested against summit communiqué calling on Iran to return its three islands to UAE. The use of the words “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by the Arab leaders at the summit was also a main point of contention. On economic front, Iran and China signed a $2-billion contract to develop an oil field in Iran. The media saw the contract as a first sign of the crumbling sanctions in the aftermath of NIE publication.

NIE and Iran’s Nuclear program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “a victory for Iran” ; Ahmadinejad said the NIE put seal of approval on civilian nature of Iran's nuclear activities ; he added the reports released by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US intelligence community removed any ambiguity about Iranian nuclear program; Ahmadinejad said NIE conclusion on peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program was “a step forward” in mending relations with Iran.
· Iran’s Minister of Defense Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said there were many positive points in US NIE; Gen. Najjar said however Iran was never after developing nuclear weapons.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said nuclear energy is a vital and urgent need of Iran; Hosseini added the legitimate rights of Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes are not negotiable.
· President Ahmadinejad said a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program would have no legal basis; US is pushing for a third round of UN sanctions despite a new NIE; Ahmadinejad said he does not think any new resolutions will be on the way.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop an oil field regarded as an indication of crumbling sanctions against Iran in aftermath of publication of NIE.
· US President George Bush demanded Iran explain nuclear program; President Bush called on Iran to explain why it had a secretive nuclear program; he called Iran a “dangerous” country.
· Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear program is still dangerous; Olmert emphasized the NIE gives estimates of when Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon; Olmert said Iran is continuing its production of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles needed for a nuclear weapon program; Olmert added Iran could have the bomb by 2010.
· IAEA team arrived in Tehran for nuclear talks; talks were expected to focus on traces of weapon-grade enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors at Tehran's Technical University.

US-Iran Relations

· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if US follow the step they have taken with their new NIE by making changes in their policies in the region, they will see immediate and positive results coming from Iran.
· President Ahmadinejad said he still wanted a debate with his US counterpart President Bush over world developments; Ahmadinejad first proposed such debate in September; the proposal is still on the table, he said.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US seeks to dominate energy sources of the Persian Gulf region; Hossieni said providing security for Israel, escalating arms race in the region, and making regional countries suspicious of Iran were among main goals of US; he added if US changes its policies on Iran, the grounds for expansion of political and economic relations between the two countries would be prepared.
· US built an observation base on Iraq-Iran border near Iraqi town of Badrah to monitor flows of goods and people from Iran; Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, Commander of US 3rd ID, said containing Iran “is now clearly part of US military mission”; Gen. Lynch labeled Iran’s policies in Iraq “destabilizing”; Iran has four official border crossings with Iraq.
· US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met Israel’s defense minister and armed forces commander on Iran; Adm. Mullen’s spokesman said Iran is among the subjects discussed.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran welcomed Iraq's new proposal to develop a regional security pact among all countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad described the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Qatar as very positive and constructive; he advised GCC critics to abandon pessimistic approaches and be realistic.
· Director of an influential Iranian think-tank, Mohammad Javad Larijani, defended Ahmadinejad's participation in summit of leaders of Persian Gulf countries in Doha; Member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli had criticized Ahmadinejad for going to Doha; Tavakoli protested against summit communiqué against Iran’s ownership of three islands claimed by UAE; Doha critics also protested against use of “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by Arab leaders during the summit; Larijani said he expected GCC to restructure itself and develop into Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to include Iran, Iraq and Yemen.
· A regional security conference focusing on Iran was held in Bahrain; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend Bahrain conference; US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of US; Qatar and some other Gulf countries protested US military threats against Iran.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop Yadavaran oil field in southwestern Iran; Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said new contract indicates Washington's claims that international firms are not willing to invest in Iran are baseless .
· President Pervez Musharraf has said even if India does not agree to terms of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan will continue negotiations to import gas from Iran.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Thousand of students at e University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Ahmadinejad government; the students chanted “Death or Liberty!” and “No to War; No to Fascism!”; the demonstrations were to mark the National Student Day (16 Azar); Ministry of Intelligence has arrested a number of “student agitators.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini expressed regrets over the killing of French citizen Julien Van Waesberghe in Isfahan; Van Waesberghe, 24, was waiting for a bus to Yazd after visiting Isfahan; the foreign ministry spokesman said Isfahan Police has identified the killer and is vigorously trying to arrest him.

Iranian Students Hold Large Demonstrations

Thousands of students at the University of Tehran holding demonstrations against the government. Sunday 9 December 2007. The Persian placard reads: "Death or Liberty" . AP Photo

Thousand of students at the University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Admadinejad’s government. The students from Amir Kabir and other universities in Tehran also joined the protests at the University of Tehran campus.

The protests were held to mark 16 Azar, the National Student Day. 16 Azar has been observed by Iranian students since 1954 when three students were killed by the police at the University of Tehran campus during a demonstration against the visiting US Vice-President Richard Nixon and against the government of the shah.

This year’s demonstrations specifically targeted Ahmadinejad government and the intelligence ministry’s detention of student activists in the days leading to the National Student Day.

“Death or Liberty!”; “No War, No Fascism!” and “Free Student Prisoners!” were among the slogans chanted by the students today.

Iran Bomb by 2010: Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert today said Iran could have nuclear bomb by 2010. The Israeli assessment contradicts the new US National Intelligence Estimate. The NIE report said Iran’s nuclear weapon program has remained on hold since 2003.

The Israeli estimate is based on Iran’s current capabilities to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles. Israel says an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose a threat to its existence. Israel has the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East.

China & Iran Sign $2 Billion Contract

Iran and China today signed a two billion dollar oil contract. China’s Sinopec will develop Iran’s vast oil field of Yadavaran.

The contract is considered a victory for Iran’s oil industry which has been under US sanctions. This is the first major international contract Iran has signed since the publication of the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Monday.

The talks to finalize the contract had been long held up by disagreements involving the rate of return on investment for Sinopec. China’s national oil company will now receive a 14.98% ROI.

Yadavaran will be producing 185,000 barrels of oil a day within the next seven years.

Bahrain Conference

The regional security conference sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies got underway today in Bahrain. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki decided at the last minute neither to attend nor to send a delegation to the conference.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told the gathering that Iran needs to suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to not develop nuclear weapons in the future. He also attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States.

"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," said Gates.

On Friday, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had said, "I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran."

Some of the leaders of Persian Gulf states cautioned against isolating Iran in the region.

“I don't think we can try to solve our problems through trying to seal Iran off from the region. They are a very important player," said Sheikh Hamed, Prime Minister of Qatar. He added pushing a military confrontation with Iran is not in the best interests of GCC countries.

Postponing the Conflict

The new NIE is one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence. Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. The earliest date it can build a bomb is 2009, but that’s highly unlikely. It’s more likely to be in 2010-2015, if it ever decides to make it. Iran’s nuke program does not pose a clear and present danger. The NIE now provides a pretext for US government to de-escalate tension and avoid a military conflict with Iran.

Not so fast, the skeptics argue. The NIE indeed confirms the existence of a nuclear weapon program prior to 2003. Iranians decided to suspend their activities under the threat of US troops who had just invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. International pressure kept them from reactivating the program. If Iran wants to produce a bomb, they can do so. The decision is theirs alone.

The wild card is Israel. Even if the chance of an Iranian bomb by 2009 is very low, that minimal chance is still a very serious matter for the Israelis. The IDF intelligence and the Mosad are surely examining their own data in light of the new NIE, but knowing the Israelis it is safe to assume that they would have more confidence in their own information and that they would try in the coming months to convince the Americans to reassess their sources and their findings.

The Newsweek is reporting that US intelligence officials deny categorically that their main source was former IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari, but instead they relied heavily on an electronic intercept in which an Iranian scientist was overheard complaining earlier this year about how Iran's nuclear weapons program had been shut down in 2003. The CIA and the entire US intelligence community must have high confidence in their source to produce one of the biggest reversals in community’s key judgments.

Skepticism notwithstanding, in practical political terms the new NIE has postponed any military conflict with Iran, at lease for the Americans.

Tehran: All-Clear Signal, or Not?

The US intelligence community in an astonishing report reversed its previous findings and now believes that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in fall 2003. President Ahmadinejad immediately declared a victory for Iran. Although the real effects of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) are beginning to be felt, it is apparent that a mere three-page judgment statement on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has changed all political calculations about Iran and inside Iran.

The big question is whether the report is an all-clear signal for Tehran. The NIE does not give us any facts, only judgments. It tells us the 2005 report by the same agencies on the same subject contained wrong judgments.

We can not say which version is more accurate without knowing the facts. We only hope that the facts behind the new set of judgments were not limited to what is the talk on the street that the information on halting the work on the bomb was provided by IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari who defected to the West earlier this year and is now considered to be a CIA asset.

We also hope that the facts were not solely based on some published reports about an intercepted phone conversation between an IRGC general and the political leadership in Tehran on the necessity to resume the atomic work. Both sets of information could be as wrong as those that the 2005 judgments were based on.

What we can say with certainty is that the report has changed all political calculations. No matter how credible are the new judgments, in practical term the US leverage on Iran’s nuclear program all but disappeared on Monday. No more WWIII either. But the report does not get Iran off the hook entirely.

The NIE states that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program few months after Saddam was overthrown in Baghdad. Tehran must not be quite as immune to foreign pressure as it likes to portray itself! If the decision to halt the work on the bomb was based on a cold calculation on the part of the ayatollahs to keep away US troops from entering Iran during those victorious early days of Iraq war, a different set of calculations also based on cold realities on the ground can reverse their decision: US has its hands full in Iraq, as said many times by Ahmadinejad, so let’s make the bomb. Political decisions can by definition get reversed.

Tehran’s halt of atomic work after Saddam’s overthrow also shows that with the right amount of pressure, the international community can change Iran’s behavior; much less costly way of doing things than a WWIII.

This brings us to the timing of the report. The White House did not need to authorize the publication of the NIE. Could it be that those within the administration that always preferred the lets-change-Tehran’s-behavior solution now had the upper hand and by releasing the report checkmated the proponents of the military action against Iran? Whether or not they had anything to do with the decision to publish the NIE, they now have the upper hand. No military action can be conceivable after the report.

In Tehran, the NIE brought an unexpected victory for Ahmadinejad who was resisting pressures from the moderates and the reformists to revise the country’s nuclear policy. Only three months before the all-important parliamentary elections in Iran, Ahmadinejad gets a shot in the arm which may prove decisive in who would control the Majlis. Ahmadinejad must wonder how ironic can it get to receive such valuable help from the US intelligence community.

The Iranian opposition also is once again learning a time-honored fact: in the struggle against the government do not rely on foreign policy. A report published on the other side of the world can change all calculations. Stick with the basics. Democracy, human rights and the establishment of a progressive Iran.

Nuclear-Free Iran

The US intelligence community in an astonishing report has reversed its previous findings and now believes with high confidence that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in fall 2003. The new National Intelligence Estimate believes with moderate confidence Iran will not be able to enrich enough fissile material for a weapon until sometime between 2010 and 2015.

For many Iran analysts, including this lowly reporter, the findings were as explosive as highly enriched uranium! How could we now explain the nuclear policy of the Islamic Republic if the country was not working on a bomb? Has the Iranian government taken life-and-death risks only to enrich uranium to run an electricity-generating power plant?

The growing isolation of Iran as a result of its non-compromising policy on uranium enrichment has already been a disaster for the country’s foreign trade and international relations. As late as last Friday, the chief nuclear negotiator of the extremist government in power in Tehran made such a scene during his meeting with EU foreign policy chief that it even convinced China to agree to a third round of sanctions against Iran (please see the article below posted earlier today).

Short of irrationality and a Saddam-syndrome prevalent among the power circles in Tehran, the nuclear policy of this government can not be easily explained and can only result in more serious disasters for the country.

China to Support Sanctions

Reports from Paris and Washington indicate that China will back new sanctions against Iran. The move will clear the way for a third UN Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

China’s change of heart came about after EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed disappointment after his meeting on Friday with Saeed Jalili, Iran’s new chief nuclear negotiator. The diplomats in Paris called that meeting “a disaster” for Iran. Jalili called it “a good” meeting.

It is increasingly apparent that the extremist government of Iran has lost touch with realities on the ground. Last week they famously tried to dissuade Arab leaders from attending the Annapolis conference. 20 Arab and Muslim countries, including Syria, attended. Then Jalili presents a disastrous performance during his meeting with Solana and calls it good.

The new UN sanctions are expected to include tougher business and banking transactions and traveling ban for Iranian leaders.

Report Calls for US-Israel Dialogue on Iran

A report by Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) released today calls on Israel and US to jointly examine ways to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The report authored by Chuck Freilich, a former National Security Council official, is entitled “Speaking About the Unspeakable.”

Freilich says Israel would prefer that the US attack Iran. However, Israel believes it can successfully attack Iran on its own and has not shared its plans with the US for fear of a US veto. The report says the US has also kept secret from Israel any intention of attacking Iran. Hence, Freilich calls for detailed discussions between the US and Israel on possible military action against Iran and Iran’s possible responses.

Freilich also calls for US-Israeli dialogue on an alternative of how to live with a nuclear Iran.

WINEP is an influential Washington-DC based think-tank specializing on US Middle East policy. WINEP is regarded as having close ties to American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

New UN Sanctions Possible

A French official said today that US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany may have an agreement “in the short term” on the third UN resolution against Iran (AP, 1 December). The Group of 5+1 met in Paris today a day after Iran refused to offer any concessions with regards to its uranium enrichment program during the last-minute talks with EU officials.

The French official told AP that the meeting of the Group of 5+1 “was held in positive spirit.” He added, “The elements allow us to project that we could have a resolution in the short term.”

Iran Naval Maneuvers

The Straits of Hormuz

Islamic Revolution Guards Corp Navy (IRGC-N) will be part of the naval maneuvers to be carried out in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman next February. The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) will conduct the war game.

The maneuvers, codenamed “Ettehad-86” (Unity-2008), will last for one week. The exact dates have not been announced yet.

IRIN Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said in Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes will not be closed during the exercise. The comment could be a veiled threat that the aim of the war game is indeed testing the capabilities of navy equipment, including the new mini submarines, and naval tactics to close the Straits if attacked.

Yesterday was Iran’s National Navy Day (28 November). To mark the occasion, the navy launched a new, indigenously developed Ghadir-class coastal (light) submarine. The navy is expected to launch two more subs of the same class in the near future. These submarines are expected to displace 123 tons when dived.

The new submarine is the second locally built. In 2005, the navy announced that it had built its first Ghadir-class sub. The navy also possesses three Russian-built Kilo-class diesel submarines.

The Navy also launched a new frigate named Jamaran (Jamaran is the name of a neighborhood in Northern Tehran where Ayatollah Khomeini kept his official residence after he came back from exile to lead the Islamic revolution in February 1979). The 1,350-ton Jamaran was built in Bandar Abbas as an updated version of the older frigates that went into service some 40 years ago. The navy already operates three of these older frigates, with Jamaran counting as the fourth frigate.

IRGC-N possesses numerous small and fast attack missile craft.

Annapolis: The World Minus Iran

Annapolis Conference

(State Department Photo)

The leaders of US, Israel and Palestine along with nearly 40 foreign ministers including 20 Arab and Muslim foreign ministers and the leaders of the UN, EU, and the Arab League were in attendance in Annapolis. So much for Ayatollah Khamenei’s near-fatwa: Boycott Annapolis!

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab and Muslim countries to boycott the conference. Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as “a hoax” which will bring them no benefit. Yet he could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. Even the Syrians showed up at the conference. Today, Tehran is abuzz of what went wrong.

Khamenei used up a lot of political capital to call for the boycott of Annapolis almost certain that aside from Hamas and Hezbollah a number of Arab countries, starting with Syria, would heed the call. Even on Monday, just a day before the conference was to take place, the Iranian leaders were trying desperately to persuade the Arabs not to go. President Ahmadinejad personally telephoned Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Asad in a last-ditch attempt to defeat Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of the conference. Iran’s isolation has never been so overwhelmingly apparent.

The Annapolis gathering, no matter how it would affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, was already a major defeat for the Islamic Republic. To show Tehran still matters, the minister of defense announced the production of a new, indigenously developed solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km-2,500 km, covering the whole Middle East, named Ashura (a telling choice of name, as Ashura symbolizes historic Shia war against the Sunnis.)

Annapolis specially created high tensions between Tehran and Damascus. Bashar Assad showed he would sacrifice his “special” relations with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to be back on track to regain the Golan Heights. Indeed any serious peace initiative involving the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Syrians would do more to isolate the Islamic Republic than any US diplomatic or military action against the country. And this might explain the change of heart in the White House after seven long years. Resolving the Middle East conflict might now be considered in the US national interest and a short cut to isolate the Islamic Republic.

News from Iran

The Annapolis Conference dominated the media coverage in Iran. The country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had urged Arab countries to boycott the conference. This week he said Palestinians would see the conference as a “hoax.” He predicted Annapolis to be a “total defeat” for US and Israeli designs to fool Palestinian people. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Bashar Assad of Syria to dissuade them from going to Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference. Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. The Iranian leaders must be surprised to find Iran so isolated in the Arab world, including Syria, on an issue of such importance to them, an issue for which they spent so much political capital.

Annapolis Conference

· Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Arab countries to boycott Annapolis conference; a day before the conference, Khamenie said Annapolis was doomed to failure; Iran’s leader predicted “total defeat” for US and Israel in their new initiative to resolve Palestinian conflic.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Saudi king and said he wished “Saudi Arabia was not listed among the attending states at the Annapolis conference;” Ahmadinejad warned Arab countries against “the plots and tricks by the Zionist enemy;” referring to conference attendees, Ahmadinejad said “Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad added he was “sorry” that some Arab leaders decided to attend Annapolis; he said Annapolis will have no benefits for Palestinians.
· Hamas opened “anti-Annapolis” conference in Gaza; Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command joint the conference; an Islamic Jihad leader Mohammed Al Hendi said Annapolis conference will promote a false illusion of a Palestinian statehood on 10 percent of the real Palestinian land.
· Hamas and Hezbollah announced they would boycott Annapolis Conference.
· Hamas warned of more attacks on Israel after Annapolis Conference; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the period after Annapolis will witness an increase of resistance against Israel.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ruled out giving “the slightest concession” in Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West; if they manage to take even a small concession from us, they will later seek other concessions by making threats, Ahmadinejad added.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said he will meet EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in late November; Jalili-Solana meeting was scheduled to break down nuclear impasse; Solana needed to report back to UN Security Council by end November.
· Iran’s Ambassador to Morocco Vahid Ahmadi said causing concerns over Iran's nuclear program are aimed at misleading public opinions about Israeli threats; he added threats to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran as well as attack on the country are unfounded and irrational.
· Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) reported Iran has produced its own fuel pellets and fuel rods for the heavy water reactor in Arak; Fuel Manufacturing Plant in Isfahan is producing the pellets and the rods; the 40-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor is under construction and it is expected to become operational in mid-2008; Arak is a plutonium-based reactor.
· Russia was poised to ship nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr nuclear reactor; IAEA inspectors arrived in Russia to check the uranium fuel it has produced for Iran's first nuclear power plant; during his trip to Iran last October, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that Russia would complete the Bushehr plant.

US-Iran Relations

· US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said at a gathering at Whitman Air Force base in Missouri that military action against Iran remains an option if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program; Whitman is the home to B-2 stealth bombers which would be used on any bombardment of Iran.
· US Navy and UK Royal Navy announced their nuclear attack submarines had staged an anti-submarine warfare exercise in early October in the Arabian Sea; the maneuvers, dubbed Exercise “Sandstone, were to practice detecting, tracking and engaging Iranian submarines.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denounced US officials' anti-Iran propaganda in Iraq; Hosseini was reacting to published reports on US officials and military commanders implicating Iran of being involved in recent blast in Baghdad bazaar; Iran rejected those charges.
· US and Iran agreed to hold their 4th round of talks on Iraqi security in the coming weeks.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Iran’s influential daily Jomhouri Islami in its lead editorial described state of Iranian politics as “chaotic;” Jomhouri Islami accused President Ahmadinejad of behaving illegally towards government’s critics; It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor, the editorial said; spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation, the paper added; Jomhouri Islami is believed to having close ties to the country’s supreme leader.
· An Iranian court acquitted former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian of spying and treason charges; Mousavian was convicted of a lesser charge of propagating against the ruling system; Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had called Moussavian a spy and all critics of his nuclear policy “traitors.”
· Iran’s highest court ordered a new investigation into the death of Iranian-Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi; Kazemi died while detained in Evin prison in Tehran in July 2003; A presidential commission inquiry revealed Kazemi died from a “fractured skull caused by a physical attack;” Iran’s judiciary originally disputed commission’s findings.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles); the new missile, called Ashura, would be capable of reaching US bases in the Middle East as well as Israel.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a Ghadir-class submarine which will be delivered to the navy on 28 November; the light submarine will be capable of rapid maneuvers in high speed and is fitted with the latest electronics and communications gears; the navy is planning to conduct war games next February in the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
· An Iranian fighter jet today crashed into Chabahar Bay in the Gulf of Oman; two crew members were reported killed in the crash.
· Iranian security forces arrested 11 members of Kurdish separatist group PJAK; PJAK has been behind a string of deadly attacks in northwestern Iran in recent months.

Regional Storylines

· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Tehran will not support any particular Lebanese presidential candidates; Hosseini said Iran pushes consensus among various Lebanese personalities, parties and ethnic groups.
· Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has rejected US call to scrap energy cooperation deal with Iran.

Iran Builds New Missile, Submarine

The New Ghadir-class Submarine

The Iranian military reported it has manufactured a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles). At this range, the new missile, called Ashura, would be capable of reaching US bases in the Middle East as well as Israel.

The military also reported it has manufactured a Ghadir-class submarine which will be delivered to the navy tomorrow. The light submarine will be capable of rapid maneuvers at high speed and is fitted with the latest electronics and communications gears, the navy claims.

The navy is planning to conduct war games next February in the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Ashura is the newest in Iran’s ballistic missile inventory. In September, Iran test-fired Ghadr-1, a missile with 1,800 km (1,100 miles) range.

F-4 Phantom Crashed

An Iranian fighter jet today crashed into Chabahar Bay in the Gulf of Oman. Two crew members were reported killed in the crash. The F-4 Phantom II air defense/attack aircraft was participating in Basij Week maneuvers near the town of Konrack in Sistan-Baluchistan province. The military has not released any other details. ( Picture: PressTV photo of an Iranian F-4 Phantom)

Iran purchased more than 220 of the Vietnam-era fighter jets in 1970s. The Phantoms were the backbone of IRIAF during the eight year war with Iraq. The Iranian F-4D’s and F-4E’s have been upgraded for their range, radar systems and moving target capabilities.

The Islamic Republic has kept its fleet of aging US-supplied aircraft flying through black market purchases of parts. US sanctions prohibit sale of military aircraft spare parts to Iran.

Iran and Annapolis Conference

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab countries to boycott the conference (Keyhan, 13 October). Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as a hoax which will bring them no benefit.

“How could other governments of the region approve of this conference? They should regard it a mischievous deception,” Khamenei proclaimed. “This US-proposed move is in fact an initiative of US regime to save the Zionist regime.”

The conference will take place on Tuesday at US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. Palestinian Authority President Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Mekdad, along with all other Arab ministers and the ministers from the Middle East Quartet, the G-8, the permanent members of UN Security Council and other key international actors will be in attendance. Nearly 50 countries and organizations would participate. So much for Khamenei’s boycott!

President Ahmadinejad today angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference.

“The people of Palestine are alive. The people of Palestine are awake. Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad said (IRIB, 25 November). “This is the result of a lack of political acumen on behalf of those who profess to be politicians… Nations in the region will not accept it. The Palestinian nation, which is standing in the frontlines of the resistance movement, will not accept it,” Ahmadinejad continued.

Hamas and Hezbollah joined Iran in attacking the conference. Hamas actually warned that it will step up attacks against Israeli troops to register its opposition to the conference.

“The period that will follow the Annapolis conference will witness an increase of the resistance against the Zionist occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip,” said Mussa Abu Marzuq, top aide to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal (AFP, 24 November).

Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran to oppose Annapolis. Even Khamenei’s rare personal appeal against attending the conference could not even pursue the Syrians. Annapolis is becoming a major defeat for Iran’s diplomacy, or lack of.

Arak Reactor Fuel Ready

Arak Heavy Water Reactor

(Fars News Agency Photo)

The director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) reported today that Iran has produced its own fuel pellets and fuel rods for the heavy water reactor in Arak. Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said the Fuel Manufacturing Plant in Isfahan is producing the pellets and the rods (IRNA, 24 November)

The 40-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor is under construction in Arak and it is expected to become operational in mid-2008. Arak plutonium-based reactor was being built on a parallel track to that of Natanz uranium-based reactor.

Both plutonium and uranium can be used in nuclear-weapon production. Nuclear experts believe plutonium-based reactors provide a simpler way of producing weapon-grade fuel. Iran insists that Arak is only a scientific research reactor replacing a smaller one in Tehran.

Ashofteh Bazaar of Iranian Politics

Ashofteh is best translated into English as chaotic. Ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics is how Tehran’s influential daily Jomhouri Eslami (“Islamic Republic”) has described the state of politics under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The paper, widely believed to having close ties to Iran’s supreme leader, in a harsh attack on Iran’s president has accused him of behaving illegally towards government’s critics.

“It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor,” said the newspaper editorial about Ahmadinejad accusing an opponent of his nuclear policies as traitor (Jomhouri Eslami, 21 November).

“Lately, spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation's general atmosphere,” said the paper.

The editorial is the latest indication of a deepening power struggle underway in Tehran. Ahmadinajad has used the country’s nuclear program to label the reformist and moderate opposition as unpatriotic. Ahmadinejad in turn is coming under increasing attack for his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani have sounded alarm, and Iran’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has called on the government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities to avoid bringing war to the country.

In the ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics, something has to give. In the simplest form, it is a struggle for survival between Ahmadinejad, representing the extremists, and Rafsanjani, representing the moderates. Even a chaotic bazaar is too small for them both. If today’s editorial is any indication of Khamenei’s move to distance himself from Ahmadinejad, then Ahmadinejad's days in Marmar Palace are numbered.

Attack on Iran Remains an Option: Gates

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said today at a gathering at Whitman Air Force base in Missouri that military action against Iran remains an option if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program. Whitman is the home to B-2 stealth bombers which would be used on any bombardment of Iran.

“This is not about changing the regime in Iran. It's about getting the regime in Iran to change its behavior, and its policies,” Gates added (AP, 20 November).

Exercise Sandstone

USS Miami on Display in Port Everglades

US Navy and UK Royal Navy announced their nuclear attack submarines had staged an anti-submarine warfare exercise in early October in the Arabian Sea dubbed Exercise “Sandstone.” Jane’s Defence Weekly, the authoritative military news digest, reported from London yesterday that USS Miami and HMS Talent practiced detecting, tracking and engaging Iranian submarines for six days close to Iran’s southeastern Persian Gulf coast.

Iranian Navy operates three Kilo-class diesel-powered submarines from their home port of Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Jane’s report indicates that the US/UK joint exercise was to discourage Iran from putting its submarines to sea to threaten coalition naval forces in the area.

Royal Navy sources told Jane’s that HMS Talent has since returned to UK but has been replaced by another British submarine.

News from Iran

The long-awaited IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program has dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. The report showed Iran making “substantial progress” in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but it also declared that the knowledge about Iran’s present nuclear activities was diminishing and the agency could not make an assessment of the state of nuclear program in Iran. The report also confirmed that Iran has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Iranian officials claimed vindication from IAEA report and celebrated their victory. The celebration might have been pre-mature. While the report praises Iran for providing information on the program’s past, it does say Iran has built 3,000 centrifuges, a number generally considered as a threshold for building a nuclear weapon program, and it also says that Iran is not providing as much information on its present nuclear activities. In other words, the report can not say whether Iran is building an atomic bomb.

The US and its European allies predictably argued that the number of centrifuges in operation coupled with the lack of transparency on present activities meant Iran could indeed be developing nuclear weapons. China and Russia, also as predicted, argued Iran must be given more time to fully cooperate with IAEA to ease international concerns over its nuclear program.

The Nuclear Program

· IAEA Director General Mohammad ElBaradei released IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program; report showed Iran making progress in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but knowledge about present activities was diminishing; report could not make an assessment of Iran’s present activities; ElBaradei’s report confirmed Iran has accomplished installation of 3,000 centrifuges and has injected uranium gas to all enrichment machines.
· Iranian officials claimed vindication from IAEA report; President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said bullies intended to prevent Iran from progress but the world will understand that Iran was right; Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said IAEA report proved Iranian nuclear program has been logical and transparent.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said UN Security Council should no longer regulate Iran’s nuclear program; an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman warned a third UNSC resolution would endanger “present trend of cooperation” with IAEA.
· The French Foreign Ministry spokesman said IAEA report shows Iran has provided only partial responses to international concerns over its nuclear program; a German Foreign Ministry spokesman called the report "not encouraging"; A UK Foreign Office spokesman said London will pursue further Security Council and EU sanctions failing upcoming EU-Iran talks.
· US State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said IAEA report’s “partial credit” to Iran resolve issue of whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons; White House Spokeswoman Dana Perino said IAEA report makes clear Iran is not interested in working with the rest of the world.
· Under intense Western pressure, China agreed to 5+1 Group meeting on Iran sanctions after earlier refusing to take part; China’s refusal had threatened to force cancellation of 5+1 meeting; China wanted IAEA to have more time to inspect nuclear sites in Iran (1).
· Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey said possibilities to mediate in Iran’s nuclear dispute existed; Calmy-Rey said Iran’s dossier has arrived at a decisive stage; Calmy-Rey said a war with Iran might affect millions of people; Switzerland was sounding out possibilities for starting direct negotiations with Iran.
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said threats against Iran would complicate the nuclear issue; Russia said it will soon start shipping nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr reactor; Russia’s nuclear fuel producer Novosibirsk said it has invited IAEA inspectors to begin sealing fuel for shipment to Iran.
· Influential editor of Keyhan called IAEA report “positive” but insufficient and “contradictory.”

Iran-US Relations

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on US to apologize to Iran for accusing it of seeking to develop nuclear weapons; Ahmadinejad said recent IAEA report found Iran truthful about key aspects of its nuclear history; he added the whole world saw US allegations were not true and Iran's activities were clean and peaceful.
· US President George Bush said a nuclear armed Iran would threaten the security of the Middle East and beyond; President Bush said unless Iran agreed to suspend enrichment, international pressure must and will grow.
· Commander of US Central Command, Admiral William Fallon, said Iranian behavior in Middle East not helpful; Adm. Fallon said Iranians should not make a mistake thinking US is afraid of them.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Iranian Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi called on Iranian government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities; Ebadi urged Iranians to support a national campaign to prevent a military conflict with US; Ebrahim Yazdi, former foreign minister and leader of Iran’s Freedom Movement, said enrichment is not a matter of national security for Iran; Yazdi said by suspending enrichment, Iran can avoid war.
· Iran’s Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ezhei said former Iran’s nuclear negotiator Hossein Moussavian gave classified information to British embassy in Tehran; Moussavian was arrested earlier this year and then freed on bail.

Major Regional Storylines

· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini urged Iraq not to back US claims it meddles with Iraqi Shia insurgency; Hosseini said US accusations that Iran backs violence in Iraq are false; Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh had said Iran was showing more restraint in sending people and weapons to destabilize Iraq.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Bahrain; Bahraini government has pledged that it will not allow its territory to be used to wage a conflict with any of its neighbors; Bahrain is home base of US Fifth Fleet.
· Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made his fourth trip to Iran in two years; Chavez and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have called on OPEC to switch away from dollar and price oil in a basket of currency.
· President Ahmadinejad called his French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy, young and inexperienced; Ahmadinejad had sent a letter to Sarkozy; French daily Le Monde said Ahmadinejad's letter to Sarkozy contained “veiled threats.”

Growing Anti-War Sentiments in Iran

Iran's Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi today called on the Iranian government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and urged all Iranians to support a national campaign aimed at preventing a military conflict with the US.

“The drum beat of war can be heard very loudly,” Ebadi told a peace and human rights conference in Tehran. “Iran should respect UN Security Council resolutions and it means suspending uranium enrichment and resolving the dispute through talks.”

Ebrahim Yazdi, a former foreign minister and the leader of Iran’s Freedom Movement, also attending the peace conference in Tehran, said the government should consider people’s will and avoid a war.

“Enrichment is not a matter of national security for Iran,” said Yazdi. “We should mobilize people against the war and put pressure on the government to change its nuclear policy… By suspending enrichment, we can avoid war.”

Ebadi’s call for a “national peace campaign” is the boldest move yet inside Iran to force the government to abandon its confrontationist nuclear policies.

Oil and Dollar

As the oil prices are closing in on $100, Iran has been pressing OPEC to study the weak dollar's effect on the oil cartel's earnings and to study the feasibility of pricing oil in a currency basket instead. Iran which uses most of its dollar-based oil revenues on euro and yen-based imports has been particularly hit hard by the free fall in dollar value.

President Ahmadinejad, attending the OPEC summit, today said a majority of OPEC heads of state have expressed willingness to study the switch away from dollar. The final communiqué issued today at the end of the summit said OPEC will study “proposals by some of the heads of state and governments,” apparently referring to Ahmadinejad’s (and Hugo Chavez’s) proposal on the switch away from dollar.

The controversy over dollar-based oil pricing come few months before Iran celebrates the 100th anniversary of its discovery of oil with $100 oil! The first oil wells of Iran and the Middle East were discovered and drilled in Masjid Soleyman, in southwestern Iran, in 1908. In the past 100 years, Masjid Soleyman alone has produced more than 1.5 billion barrels of oil.

Iran’s crude oil export revenues are expected to surpass $70 billion this year. Iran feels, however, that the weak dollar has eaten considerably into its oil revenue bonanza of the recent years.

Russia to Ship Nuclear Fuel to Iran

Russia’s Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrate Plant will soon start shipping nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power reactor. The state-run nuclear fuel producer has invited IAEA inspectors to begin sealing the fuel for shipment to Iran later in the month (Reuters, 16 November).

The report of the fuel shipment came hours after China prevented the Group of 5+1 to hold a meeting to discuss a new round of UN sanctions against Iran. China argues that the IAEA report which was released yesterday shows Iran is seriously cooperating with the UN watchdog agency and as a result no further sanctions are needed at this point.

US had pushed for new sanctions because according to the report Tehran was providing “diminishing” information about its current nuclear activities. Chinese pullout from the meeting of 5+1 Group has all but killed the chance of any new UN sanctions resolution in the coming weeks or months.

Tehran was a happy place today. Iran declared unqualified victory after IAEA released its report. President Ahmadinejad immediately took credit for his uncompromising stand against US pressure to halt uranium enrichment activities and called on US to apologize for accusing Iran of seeking nuclear bomb.

The celebrations in Tehran, however, might be premature. While the IAEA report shows a satisfactory level of cooperation with Iran in clarifying the program’s past, it confirms that Iran has reached 3,000 enrichment centrifuges, enough to produce a bomb within a year if it desired. It also indicates the “diminishing” level of information on Iran’s current nuclear program. The report might have delayed any immediate crisis for Iran, but it has not closed down the book on the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. Too much celebrations too early is not advised!

China's prevention of reaching a consensus might have unintended consequences. The US and the West will now accelerate their own sanctions regime against Iran and the US and Israel might be forced to think of an emerging nuclear Iran and the ways to stop it

The IAEA Report

The long-awaited IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program showed Iran making substantial progress in clarifying ambiguities on its past work, but knowledge about present activities was diminishing. Iran’s cooperation with IAEA was called a “significant step forward.”

The report could not make an assessment of Iran’s present activities. While the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz was under IAEA safeguards, knowledge of Iran's progress was diminishing as Iran stopped implementation of the Additional Protocol that gives increased inspection rights to the IAEA.

IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei’s report also confirmed that Iran has accomplished installation of 3,000 centrifuges and injected UF6 to all centrifuges to go through the enrichment process. The number is generally believed to be the threshold for a nuclear weapon program.

The US is expected to argue that by not disclosing the full extent of current activities, Iran is covertly developing a nuclear weapon. Russia and China are likely to argue that Iran is making some progress in addressing past questions.

Ahmadinejad at War

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is coming under increasing pressure to moderate his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is also coming under pressure to rein in Ahmadinejad.

The reformists and traditional conservative, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are sounding alarm at Ahmadinejad’s pronouncements on Iran’s nuclear advances, which at times seem like inviting the US and Israel to hit the country’s nuclear installations and to start a war. On 7 November, he defiantly said that despite threats of a military attack on Iran, the country has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges. The 3,000 number was significant because it is generally believed it represents a threshold where a country can produce enough enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.

Moderates fear the uncompromising nuclear policies of the government will lead to a disastrous military conflict. They point to the US military buildup in the Persian Gulf. There are a carrier battle group and an expeditionary unit with fighter jets and a large contingent of marines. There are dozens of more fighters and bombers at bases in Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Diego Garcia and elsewhere in the region. Voices of moderation within the Islamic Republic are calling for conflict-resolution concessions, namely a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment activities. Ahmadinejad angrily labeled his critics “traitors” and questioned their mental capacity by calling them “little goats.”

The extremists led by Ahmadinejad see the situation not as a threat to nation’s security, but as an opportunity to force the US military out of the region. They point to US Fifth Fleet’s vulnerability to Iran’s advanced anti-ship missile arsenal. The Russian-built cruise missiles are positioned on the rugged mountains overlooking the Persian Gulf. They believe that they can destroy most of the Fifth Fleet by those cruise missiles. Hence they feel the US would not dare to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In their minds, this is a game of Chicken, and the US will back down.

In a tense situation prevailing in the region, the moderates warn, any miscalculations on either side can start a conflict that could get out of control. If Iranian cruise missiles destroyed even a single US ship, with the high casualties involved, it would be a total war on Iran, including the possible use of tactical nukes against the nuclear and missile installations. It would be a disaster for Iran and a disaster for the entire region.

Ahmadinejad is dead set on playing the game, building nuclear capabilities and wining the next rounds of parliamentary and presidential elections, slated for March 2008 and May 2009 respectively, on nationalistic and populist sentiments if Iran gets close to building the bomb. His anger and use of vulgar language in recent days is a reaction to becoming increasingly isolated within the establishment. The reformists and traditional conservatives see in him an extremist out of control who need to be stopped now.

Iran’s nuclear program and Iran-US relations have become the hottest issues in the power struggle unfolding in Tehran.

Ahmadinejad Calls His Critics "Traitors"

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today labeled the critics of his nuclear policies "traitors," and accused them of spying and collaborating with Iran’s enemies.

"They sent people to the enemy to regularly give them information from within the ruling system every week," Ahmadinejad told a group of students at Science and Industry University in Tehran (IRNA, 12 November).

The moderate and reformist politicians, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, have in recent days warned the government of the seriousness of the threat to Iran’s security if the international concerns over Iran’s nuclear program are ignored.

Ahmadinejad is increasingly becoming isolated within the country’s political elite, and is reacting with anger and vulgar language. Last week he called his critics "goats," apparently for their low level of intellect. Now he is accusing them of being "traitors," apparently for advocating a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.

Ahmadinejad vowed to expose his critics’ collaboration with Iran’s enemies.

China to Push Suspension of Nuclear Program

China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will visit Tehran on Tuesday for talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over Iran's uranium enrichment program, the Chinese foreign ministry said today (Xinhua).

Last Thursday, China called on Iran to “respond positively” to international concerns about its nuclear program. Chinese request had come a day after Ahmadinejd announced that Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

Chinese foreign minister’s upcoming visit to Tehran is seen by analysts as a direct pressure on Ahmadinejad to halt the enrichment program. China needs to cast a vote at UN Security Council later in the month for a new round of sanctions if Iran did not agree to halt the program. China would be under enormous pressure not to ignore Ahmadinejad’s latest remarks in voting on new sanctions against Iran. For China, halting the enrichment program would be the best option available.

Sufis Attacked

The Remains of the Sufi Seminary in Boroujerd

11 November 2007 . AP Photo

Iran’s Police and Basij Force stormed the seminary of Sufis in Boroujerd today after violent scrimmages between the Sufis and the members of a nearby Shia mosque.

Advarnews, an Iranian independent news agency, reported some 100 Sufis were injured during the raid and another 500 arrested. The basij Force troopers set the Sufi seminary afire and later demolished it by bulldozer.

Iranian Shia government does not recognize the Sufis as a religious sect and the Sufi are discriminated against because of their beliefs. Iranian Sufis mainly belong to the Nematollahi-Gonabadi order.

German Sanctions Against Iran

Merkel with Bush at president's ranch

in Crawford, Texas on Saturday

(AP Photo)

German engineering giant Siemens pulled out of all new business dealings with Iran. The move came on the eve of a visit to Washington by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Germany’s three biggest banks, Deutsche, Commerzbank, and Dresdner had already stopped doing business with Iran. Their decision to leave Iran came after US Vice President Dick Cheney warned that firms remaining in Iran would have trouble doing business in the US.

Merkel told President Bush on Saturday she would be willing to support a third round of UN sanctions against Iran if the Iranians did not halt their uranium enrichment program.

Merkel and Bush called Iran’s nuclear program a serious threat but said they both prefer to resolve the standoff through pressure, including economic sanctions.

Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia and China will meet on 19 November to assess reports on Iranian nuclear program by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Reporters Without Borders Protest Arrests

Reporters Without Borders today criticized Iran for snubbing appeals from the international community on human rights, as one journalist was imprisoned and two publications suspended.

Yaghoub Salaki Nia was arrested on 31 October and was sent to the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran. Salaki Nia wrote for banned publications Shamesse Tabriz, Ahrar and Omid-e Zanjan.

On 5 Novermber, the authorities closed Madresseh for “apostasy.” The philosophical review had published an interview in its latest edition with an intellectual cleric, Mohammad Mojtahed Shabesstary, who carries out research into the Koran. The political monthly Dilmaj, founded in 2004, was also closed on 23 September.

International human rights and free press organizations have repeatedly called for the release of Iranian political prisoners and journalists, including Emadoldin Baghi, Ako Kurdnasab, Ejlal Ghavami, Mohammad Sadegh Kaboudvand, Said Matinpour, Adnan Hassanpour, Abdolvahed Botimar, Kaveh Javanmard and Mohammad Hassan Fallahieh.

Iran is in 166th place out of 169 on Reporters Without Borders' latest world press freedom rankings of October 2007.

US Military Frees Two Iranian Officials

The US military in Iraq today released two of the five Iranian officials arrested during a raid in Erbil last January. The Iranian foreign ministry identified the two as Musa Cheghini and Hamid Reza Asgari-Shokooh (ISNA, 9 November).

Seven Iranian civilians were also released today. Iran claims they were pilgrims. US military suspected them of involvement in terrorist activities.

Six Iranian officials are still held in Iraq. In addition to three remaining officials from Erbil, the detainees include Mahmoud Farhadi who was arrested in Sulaymaniyah last September and two others in Baghdad.

Mahmoud Farhadi is accused by US military of being a high-ranking officer in IRGC-Quds Force involved in smuggling deadly roadside bombs into Iraq. Iran says Farhadi is a low-level provincial trade official visiting Iraq to promote commerce. Iran closed its border with Iraqi Kurdistan for more than two weeks to protest Farhadi’s arrest.