By Nader Uskowi
On 12 June 2009, Iranians went to the poll to choose their president. A significant segment of the population, especially in the country’s major cities, expected former prime minister and now the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi to become the new head of the government. In a series of events that are still in dispute, the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner and the country’s supreme leader personally and famously certified his re-election during 19 June 2009 sermon at Tehran’s Friday’s Prayer. Pro-Mousavi protesters came out on the streets in a spontaneous movement we now call Green. At the biggest Green demonstration in Tehran, some three million Iranians demanded a runoff or a new election to no avail. More than 80 people were killed during the government crackdowns on street protesters and thousands were detained, with hundreds still in detention. Many were charged and few were executed. Pro-reform newspapers were shut down and an atmosphere of political oppression and intimidation backed by armed forces of IRGC, the Basij and the police became prevalent in the country. So much so, that this year the opposition leaders cancelled all organized protest activities marking the first anniversary of the Green movement.
On its face, the government came out as the victor, the Green movement was defeated, and the opposition leaders silenced. If I were a pro-government partisan, however, I would not have congratulated myself on the victory. The re-election of Ahmadinejad came with a stiff price for the Islamic Republic. The regime did not need to use heavy-handed tactics to prevent Mousavi from forming the new government; he had already headed the government during the most critical period in the country’s history, the eight-year was with Iraq, between 1980 to 1988, under no less an authority than Khomeini himself. Ayatollah Khamenei, on that 19 June sermon, could have easily ordered for a runoff that would have immediately calmed the streets. Instead a year later, the Islamic Republic is regarded by a significant segment of the population as a police state, the kind of which the Islamic Republic was created to replace. Even if Mousavi were the president, the real power would have rested with Khamenei. Preventing his victory at the cost of loosing political legitimacy among so many citizens was the biggest political mistake of Khamenei’s twenty-year rule.
Iran faces many challenges. Its leaders have consciously decided to meet those challenges through policies of confrontation and not compromise, both within the country and outside its borders. An ideology of extreme right is taking hold in the country. This lowly blogger believe extremism is a sign of weakness and not strength; and this is true not just in Iran. At the end of the day, the extremists have to rule through intimidation and terror, illegitimating their own rule. The leaders need to realize that Iran’s economic, political and foreign policy issues are best addressed through the creation of the broadest possible coalition that would include the opposition. The policies of exclusion and intimidation are not long-run solutions to the country’s problems.
24 comments:
The Fetneh is over&out
The people who killed in elections unrest, died for a lie.
This whole "opposition" hype was overblown by Zionist and "western" media and the usual rantings of "Iran is about to implode" crowd in exile. In all objective assessment, most Iranians did not want violence or rioting. The "greens" were their own worst enemies with ineffectual Mousavi and Karroubi as their "leaders". Most people who understand Persian Mirrors had known that the Islamic Republic and its institutions are enduring and Seyed Ali Khamenei and IRI institutions have a firm hand on Iran. The simple fact is that in the past 32 years, Iran has matured at a political level and has a vibrant civil society that understands the internal and international dynamics of these types of foreign funded color coded "democracy movements". The only real cheerleaders for the rioters were VOA, Radio Farda, Kol Israel, BBC and the usual "international community" and their wishful thinking. Even the war criminal Nethanyahu went on air to support the "green movement" in Iran.
US economic pressure, destabilization campaigns, support for MKO, PKAJ, Jundollah etc and daily threats also consolidates support for the regime. Both, Mousavi and Karroubi knew full well that if they tried to orchestrate demonstrations this week they would have suffered a severe public blowback considering the extreme public anger in Iran against the UNSC and the unjust sanctions. Ahmadinejad seems to have divine protection in form of US stupidity and tunnel vision.
I don't care if the opposition was blow out of proportion by the media or not. Point is that things that should have NEVER happened have happened. This is irreversible. All one can hope is for this to become Iran's Tienanmen. Khamenei made a grave mistake in allowing the country to fall into chaos. However I must say that the politics of this issue are all about divisions within the Islamic Republic itself. The questions now are;
1) Will the "Green" movement (Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Karroubi) continue or reconcile with their former allies?
2) Will the “Green” movement want to depose the current government and form a new “type” of government or will they reform the current system? Of great importance to this question is the state of the supreme leader.
3) Will the “Green” movement actively seek Western support to overthrow the incumbent government? (By this I don’t not mean some person on twitter, I mean Mousavi/Rafsanjani siding with the US-I find this illogical as the leaders of the “Green” movement are followers of the revolution)
I would appreciate to hear Mr. Nader’s opinion on what I have said.
Anon 11:15 pm,
As I had said in this post, I do believe that Ayatollah Khamenei made the biggest mistake of his 20-year rule; he could have as easily prevented the protests and the killings and arrests that followed by ordering a runoff election. The worst possible scenario for him was a Mousavi victory, a man who had headed the Islamic Republic government during the most crucial years of its existence. I also have reasons to believe that the supreme leader is aware of this argument and has listened carefully to the folks making it.
You have raised some serious questions, for which I might not be qualified to answer. But let me give you my reading of them:
1. The Greens will reconcile if a new election is called, or if Mousavi is given recognition as an elder statement and be consulted with on important issues (as is he is portrayed by types of Kayhan as an enemy of the state, with calls for his imprisonment and execution).
2. The Greens are divided on the issue. A minority seeks a change of the government, but a great majority favors a government of national unity at this time. This is precisely the point missed by Khamenei. He is acting irrational, as he believes the Greens are finished and dead for good. That’s as grave a mistake as he made last year. There is a serious resentment on part of Green supporters that do not translate into street protests under the current circumstances. The danger of such resentment for the Islamic Republic is that for the first time in its thirty-year history there is a significant segment of the population that is starting to become anti-Islamic Republic, as opposed to being opposed to its specific policies. Khamenei should not underestimate this resentment; it could seriously undermine the foundation of the regime.
3. I do not believe the Greens under the current leadership, or under possibly a new leadership in near future, would actively seek foreign support. As Khomeini’s own experience has shown, such foreign support is only helpful if the leaders are ready to call for an alternative government and start the process of taking over the government.
operation "Ajax 2" failed
Nahid / Hamburg
The 6:26 AM comment was an advertisement and was removed by this administrator.
Nahid, would you elaborate on your comment? Do you believe the foreign intelligence agencies have the power to organize three-million strong demonstrations in the country's capital? Or are they instead opportunistically seek to affect the outcome of internal developments in the country? Could Iranian citizens act independently of foreign intelligence agencies?
I believe the 3 million demonstrator figure is quite debatable considering the anti-IRI propaganda campaign of half-truths, distortions and propaganda.
The most important fact to keep in mind is the lack of a critical mass within Iran to successfully affect a "regime change". US has largely been successful in installing puppet regimes in either corrupt fuedal Arab "monarchies" (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar etc) or in militarized nations like Turkey or failed economic basketcases like Egypt and Pakistan where the US has trained the client military, installed a hand-picked puppet the whole high-command and controls the finances of the generals. The same was true in Iran till the revolution when the shah's military was under US aegis. In 1953 colonel Zahedi with shabon bemokh and a CIA rent a crowd was able to overthrow Dr. Mossaedegh with ease via operation AJAX.
The Iranian military and security apparatus since the Islamic Revolution are completely free of US interference or influence. They are home grown products of Iranian soil. Iran's population is now close to 80 million and too large to manipulate by foreigners or be "regime changed" by colour coded "revolutions" made in Langeley and following instructions brodcast by BBC, Radio Farda and VOA.
One of the by-products of the Jange Tahmili (Iran-Iraq war) was the development of totally Iran centric military force as envisioned by both Mustafa Chamran and Colonel Sayyed Ali Shirazi. In any large nation, the only people who can overthrow a government are the people with guns. In Iran, both the Artesh (military) and the IRGC are totally subservient, loyal and supportive of the Islamic Revolution. The same situation exists in China, where the PLA (People's Liberation Army) is not about to overthrow the People's congress or the communist party, despite a hundred Tienanmen squares if need be.
In objectively discussing or analyzing the Iranian internal dynamics, it is prudent to keep emotions in check and factually look at political, military and economic ground realities. The "westernized" upper and middle-classes from North Tehran and the diaspora may wish for a mass upheavel, but it simply won't happen as they are not the people who will come out and face the wrath of the security forces or the Basiji toughs. We saw the same situation in the 80's during the Iran-Iraq war when most of the rich and the middle-class voted with their feet and ran off to exile, leaving the rural religious and conservative poor to go the front-lines and defend Iran. The same is true today, as the Basijis respresent the same poor and conservative religious Iranians who will support the IRI no matter what. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, Mustafa Najjar, Ali Larajani et.al are not about to pack their bags and move to LA, Maryland,Paris or London in this lifetime.
Anon 1:57,
The Islamic Republic was born through mass demonstrations and marches without guns. BBC regularly broadcast the news of the marches, the radio program almost all demonstrators listened to. Interestingly, the shah’s government used similar rationale to try to illegitimate the popular movement: the marchers were led by BBC, they said, and there was a conspiracy by foreigners to defeat his majesty’s government and its grand design to make Iran into a superpower, again their rationale. Interestingly, we are using the same rationale to try to illegitimate any popular movement that questions policies of Khamenei’s supreme leadership. We have to be careful not to offend a significant segment of the Iranian society by accusing them of being stooges of foreign powers. I understand why the government wants to do that; hard to understand why serious analysts should fall into that trap.
Nahid,
Project 'Islamic Republic' failed.
Such a delicious site to see the faithful embracing what have become of their country, guarantees another generation of the islamic republic, a wonderful example of what islam offers to the world.
Hopefully the next iranian generation starts to learn and become more secular, then again that sort of thing only happens with high intelligence so I'm afraid only a minority will change.
Nahid,
Project 'Islamic Republic' failed.
Such a delicious site to see the faithful embracing what have become of their country, guarantees another generation of the islamic republic, a wonderful example of what islam offers to the world.
Hopefully the next iranian generation starts to learn and become more secular, then again that sort of thing only happens with high intelligence so I'm afraid only a minority will change.
Anon 1:57 said:
" US has largely been successful in installing puppet regimes in either corrupt fuedal Arab "monarchies" (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar etc) "
Hah! These regimes existed before the US, and will continue to exist w/o them. Furthermore, as someone who lives in one of them, the rulers are not seen as corrupt but are popular and people here generally like them and are happy.
But hey, twist reality to your liking.
To the comment:
"Hah! These regimes existed before the US, and will continue to exist w/o them. Furthermore, as someone who lives in one of them, the rulers are not seen as corrupt but are popular and people here generally like them and are happy."
I believe historians will beg to differ as all of the Persian Gulf petro-pimpdoms, Egypt and Saudi Arabia were British colonies (perhaps reading Major T.E Lawrence's "Seven Pillars of Wisdom" might jog your historical coma).
The US installed the Al-Saud family after a meeting with President Franklin D. Roosevelt with "King" Abdulaziz Al-Saud aboard the USS Quincy. Morocco was a French colony and still is to a large extent. Moroccan areas of Ceuta and Melilla, on north Africa's Mediterranean coast, came under Spanish control around 500 years ago and are still occupied by Spain.
It is interesting to note that only Iran and Turkey are the only Muslim nations that have never been colonized. Unfortunately, the illiteracy, corruption, archaic Wahabbi desert creed and fuedal nature of Arabs is their own worst enemy and the reason for their continued neo-colonization by western powers, occupation and humiliation by Zionists.
" The US installed the Al-Saud family after a meeting with President Franklin D. Roosevelt with "King" Abdulaziz Al-Saud aboard the USS Quincy"
Uh, no, rofl.
The al-saud family took saudi arabia by force, in alliance with th wahabis, and that's how they stay in power. Though tribalism and genuine popularity also helps, it's not like saudis have a democratic green movement themselves. If there's change it will be more like the taliban, though saudi arabia is already close.
It's amazing how much power is given to america in anti-america narratives. After all, america has to run the world if it can be blamed for all its problems.
Nobody in the gulf except any deluded far-left elements and al-qaida think the gulf is 'occupied' by US/zionists (oh those zionists are everywhere!). The US freakin' occupies iraq, an actual real occupation, and still iran has more power.
Saudi arabia didn't even let the US attack iraq from its bases for heaven's sake. Kuwait did because it supported the war after it suffered saddam and wanted him out.
Occupied and humilated by zionists? Please. They're making progress and using their oil money wisely, profligate sheiks aside, building schools and infrastructure. SA is not in as good as a position as the small countries, but it's not arabs from the 'occupied/humiated' gulf that beg for visas to get out of their countries and move to dubai - that would be the proud persians.
You don't even to know history to realize what you say is BS, yeah FDR just sailed to saudi arabia and 'installed' their king. maybe the US could force their vassal to break up OPEC and give them cheap oil? No? that sound you hear is reality crashing your fantasy narrative.
I don't know about morocco, but egypt was allied to the freakin' soviet union and then changed to the US. And what about the people, dont' they have responsbility? If there are millions in the streets demanding US stop its aid and cut relations, and those are majority views, then what will the US do? They'll do exactly that. Egypt is messed up because of its people, just like every other country. What's that khomeini quote, every people deserve their government? yeah.
This may help with your rosy view of Yehudi Arabia:
Prince warns S. Arabia of apocalypse
Saudi Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud has warned the country's royal family to step down and flee before a military coup or a popular uprising overthrows the kingdom.
In a letter published by Wagze news agency on Tuesday, the Cairo-based prince warned Saudi Arabia's ruling family of a fate similar to that of Iraq's executed dictator Saddam Hussein and the ousted Iranian Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, calling on them to escape before people "cut off our heads in streets."
He warned that the Saudi royal family is no longer able to "impose" itself on people, arguing that deviations in carrying out the religious concepts that make up the basis of the Saudi government "have gotten out of our hands," so that the opposition views our acts as "interfering in people's private life and restricting their liberties."
"If we are wise, we must leave this country to its people, whose dislike for us is increasing," said Prince Turki, advising Saudi officials to escape with their families.
"Do it today before tomorrow as long as the money we have is enough for us to live anywhere in the world; from Switzerland to Canada and Australiawe should not return as long as we are able to get out safely, we must take our families quickly and pull out," he urged.
"Do not fool yourself by relying on the United States or Britain or Israel, because they will not survive the loss; the only door open is now the exit door of no return. Let us go before it closes."
He finally warned against a military coup against the ruling family, saying "no one will attack us from outside but our armed forces will attack us."
Prince Turki is a member of the liberal Free Princes movement founded in the 1950s amid tensions between King Faisal and his brother King Saud, requesting the Saudi authorities to implement political reforms and set out a constitution.
The late King Faisal expelled members of the civil rights group to Egypt but later on pardoned them.
A few things.
First, your disgusting phrase 'Yehudi Arabia' shows your bigoted and narrow mentality. I've said what I wanted to say, after this post I'm done with this topic.
Second, I never had a rosy view of saudi arabia. Not even of the other gulf countries. I just did not subscribe to your ridiculous narrative about the nature of those regimes and societies. Second, relative to Iran, those countries, especially non-saudi gulf ones, look more than rosy and might as well be paradise compared to your beloved 'independent' iran (independent, except, you know, under the boots of mullahs and revolutionary guards. But I guess it feels good to be a slave of your own people, they're just as bigoted and ignorant and backward as you are).
Third, I can only find that letter you talk about on leftist and islamist/iranian sites. PressTV, lol, not even foxnews can descend to their level. Actually scratch that, with glen beck they have.
Either way, it seems like it's from a opposite prince. Tell me, where are the millions of saudis protesting? Fighting the regime? Only al-qaida, and if they win thins will be worse. Although saudi arabia will be 'independent' like Iran and taliban afghanistan, lol. Chances are the majority of saudis want that, but don't care enough to fight for it. BTW, I can also post letters of iranian opposition members telling the mullahs to take their families and get out before Iran erupts. You wouldn't like those though, right. In any case, it's their country, their responsibility. America is not responsible for their rulers unless it sends in a million american soldiers to patrol riyadh and other saudi cities. Then they and people like you, with your crocodile tears for saudis, can complain.
I don't know much about saudi arabia to be honest, and like I said if it were a democracy it would be like the taliban and cease to be a democracy after that first election (all the more reason for 'imperialists' like the US to do the world a favor and keep supporting the monarchy with its magical power powder that controls millions of people) but I know more than enough to call bullshit on your al-saud family narrative, surly one you were taught in the islamic republic's school books. or a 'progressive' text, who knows.
BTW, in that very same article it says the opposition group was pardoned. Boy, that saudi arabia sounds like it could erupt in a (pro-iranian/islamic, anti-american?) revolution any minute now! Keep dreaming. And if it does happen, the first thing the wahabis will do is attack shias and iranians. Now that would be lovely.
Keep spouting anti-semitic venom, keep shouting and wailing at america, keep your country backward and miserable (I'm sorry, I mean independent!), I love what you do because it gives me hope that the islamic republic will last for much longer. The iranian people should get their bellies full of islamic government, just as they wanted.
A war would ensure that. I can't wait to see iranians cry, why is the US oppressing and bombing us, we've been wishing it nothing but health and prosperity at every frida prayers for 3 decades! LOL. Less enthusiastclaly I wait for the third world and the left to support the ugly iranians over the blu-eyed imperialists becuase iranians are just as poor and hideous as they are, nevermind that all benefit from stopping iran and they themselves would do the same or probalby much worse should they be in america's shoes.
I only hope the US takes out khamenie and his pet donkey of a president if they strike.
Anyway, that's enough talk. Good bye.
A moron said
"at every frida prayers for 3 decades! LOL. Less enthusiastclaly I wait for the third world and the left to support the ugly iranians over the blu-eyed imperialists becuase iranians are just as poor and hideous as they are, nevermind that all benefit from stopping iran and they themselves would do the same or probalby much worse should they be in america's shoes. "
Right tosser you must be. Just take a look at the mirror mate and put your president picture next to yourself. The genetic picture is complete all white blue eyed guys!
Wake up mate. US and others have been in Iraq for 7 years and you have not made 7 inches of progress. I dislike jews as much as dislike Arabs and you must be one of them as well. The biggest mistake Iran has done is to get involved with these Semites mean Arabs. The ideal world would be for Jews and Arabs to kill each other and we can sit down and watch. Perhaps better drop few missiles and nukes on the wretched land called Israel and Saudi Arabia so the rest of the World can live in peace. Since you said you live in one of those s**tholes then I am sure you will be happy to join them as well on your way to heaven or whatever called in Yiddish.
2-3 million, is a bit exaggerated,mr Uskowi, I was there and took part in the first day of it until we heard of somebody torching shops and cars.
we left and never took part again. the second day,it was maybe 50,000 not more, but feel free to believe what you wish.
It was a cheap attempt to repeat the Rose revolution of Georgia and to disintegrate Iran afterward.
If I were you mr Uskowi, I would believe the words and instincts of my country men and women more than the BBC and Fox news or the Reza Sayah's of CNN of this world who sell Iran out just to move up in the hierarchy of his world.
I believe in standing up for and next to Iran at all times no matter who runs it and what the main stream press wants to make of it. Presidents and kings come and go but Iran should always look and stay strong and we Iranians are the main contributors to this.
Nahid / Hamburg
Nahid said:
"I believe in standing up for and next to Iran at all times no matter who runs it and what the main stream press wants to make of it.."
Oh well you mentioned that you were in Iran last year this time and now it appears from your footnote that you happen to be in Germany!
That does not say much about "you "standing up next to Iran at all cost! You must forgive me, if I were you I would put my money where my mouth is and go back to Iran. Otherwise stop lecturing people on how partiotic you are and all that cock and bull stories.
last anon,
At least be like Iranian men and have the balls top sign your name.
Whatever and whoever you are, you are entitled to your weak and pitiful opinion and all you get from me is tollerance.
Nahid /Hamburg and from time to time Tabriz & Tehran in Iran e Aziz
anon 2.13 pm
how could you possibly be insulted by an iranian expressing her national feelings and patriotism
i dont know how to reflect my disgust. i simply decide for myself that you are not an iranian patriot
thank you Nahid from tabriz and haburg and tehran keep it up
Morteza from London
When I look at webpages of Iranian issues based in the UK I am shocked to discover the British obsession with the green movement. It reminds me of the 50,s. In case some of you are not old enough to know the same process was implemented to make sure Iran surrenders.
Unfortunatly in those days there were too many illiterate Iranians and they were easy to manipulate.
Now Iranians are educated and smell foreign interferance when they see one.
Yes last year was an attempt on Irans itegrity. Or at least it was an attempted hijacking of a legitimate movement which resulted in killing it.
Dariush London-Turnham Green
Dear Nahid (June 13),
The number of demonstrators can be estimated through the pictures of those events on file.
Standing up for and next to Iran, also means standing up for liberties and democracy. A strong Iran is a democratic Iran. The country’s political strength does not come through guns and armed forces, but through a truly democratic system. Being pro-Iran should also mean being pro-democracy. A democratic Iran should be the goal of all Iranians.
Dear Dariush (June 14),
Precisely because the Iranians are educated, we should believe that they are politically capable and do not need the sponsorship of foreigners to carry a democratic movement. The government’s propaganda that foreign powers were behind last year’s demonstrations shows their true nature of not believing in their own people. If something big had happened, then it must have been orchestrated from London or Washington! This is a kind of “Daie Jan Napeleon” syndrome seen at all levels of all society.
Needless to say, the foreigners have tried and will try to influence the policies of the government of the Islamic Republic as well as those of the opposition. That’s what they do. The problem with anti-Green propaganda is labeling a significant segment of the population as lackeys of foreign powers; this is truly un-Iranian.
Also needless to say, we need not believe in the policies or the leadership of the opposition to respect their rights to oppose their government. This is what Iranians have done in more than 100 years of anti-autocratic and democratic movements, from the Constitutional Revolution, to the anti-shah movement and the Islamic Revolution, and now opposition to the increasingly autocratic tendencies in the Islamic Republic.
No contradictions known between defending Irans honor and independence with different understandings of democracy and personal liberties.
We are after all multitasking and can handle both.
Reading a Roman that trivializes our legitimate sensibilities and doing as if we are above it, does not mean The CIA and MI6 of this world are not after harming Iran.
I wont comment on this subject anymore its your site and your conclusion.
Nahid / Hamburg
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