Dress Rehearsal

By Paul Iddon

Are the UAE and Qatar Emiri Air Forces using the NATO intervention in Libya they are partaking in as a dress rehearsal of sorts for a possible future attack against Iran they may have to undertake if they feel directly threatened?

U.A.E. F-16 Fighting Falcon.

On June 7th 1981 a strike package of Israeli F-16's escorted by F-15's managed to successfully knock out the Iraqi Osirak reactor. While rebuked by the United Nations for carrying out this action the Israelis stated they believed the reactor would be operational in less than a month and soon after that have given the Iraqis a nuclear bomb of their own, a bomb that Saddam Hussein would have either found an early occasion to actually detonate or simply use as blackmail against either Israel or Iran.

While this Operation Opera raid carried out by the Israelis is often cited as the epitome of a preventive strike it is often forgotten that the Iranians themselves had attempted to knock out the Osirak reactor with their air force but had failed in their attempts. Therefore when the Israelis finally carried out their strike there was a collective sigh of relief in Iran that the man who had launched an invasion the year before with a force of 70,000 soldiers that attempted to pillage Iran's southern oil fields had been prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Today it is clear as pointed out by Nader Uskowi that the Persian Gulf is changing, the Saudis have for some time now have been calling for the United States to attack Iran metaphorically comparing such an attack to cutting “off the head of the snake.”

These statements accompany numerous reports in the past two years that claim the Saudi Kingdom had stated they will allow Israeli jets to cross through Saudi air space to strike Iran's nuclear program, this shows the evident paranoia and refusal to accept a nuclear Iran, which is why the Emirate GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council) states are allying their military forces in an alliance against what they perceive as the common foe, a nuclear armed Islamic Republic of Iran.

Historically the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were born after the end of the British protectorate on the Trucial states in 1971, that same year Iran claimed and seized the Three Islands in the Persian Gulf of which the UAE claims as its own, the clear distrust and distaste has led to several of these Emirate states challenging the historical name of the Persian Gulf, instead opting to call it the Arabian Gulf disregarding Iran as having even a significant say in its own backyard. However they do not disregard Iran militarily and fear it becoming a nuclear power that could in turn elbow itself into playing a large role in how they conduct their affairs, by forcing them to appease the Islamic Republic by blackmailing them with the possibility of otherwise having the wrath of a larger regional nuclear power bestowed upon them.

The UAE and Qatari air forces conducting military operations against Colonel Gaddafi's forces in Libya are operating from Sardinia and Crete respectively flying combat sorties alongside NATO air forces across the Mediterranean. This is mildly similar to the kind of operation they'd fly against Iran as with Iran they'd be crossing the Persian Gulf to more than likely prevent the kind of scenario I outlined above by knocking out the Bushehr reactor, which is near the Gulf coast.*

I would also guess such a strike would be carried out with a large amount of fighter bombers, similar to the Package Q strike carried out the United States Air Force in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, which saw a strike package of some 56 F-16's rain bombs on Iraq's nuclear complex in Baghdad. 

If one thing is clear at the end of the day, and that is while the Saudis may invest billions of dollars worth of military hardware into its own military arsenal it still isn't completely capable of effectively defending itself, the other Emirate coastal Gulf states, however, have a substantial deterrent in their growing ability to be capable of in one foul scoop knocking out one of Iran's main nuclear facilities within a matter of minutes, which would substantially set back the countries nuclear ambitions and capabilities and prevent it from further threatening its Gulf neighbours with its nuclear wrath.

* If conducted while the plant is operational such an attack would be dangerous for both the Emirate countries and Iran as such a strike against an operational reactor may spew radioactive material across Iran and the neighbouring Emirate states that would have carried out the attack to begin with.