The semi-official Fars News Agency reported today that Iran’s crude oil production in the Iranian calendar month of Tir, ending 20 July, was at 3.6 million bpd, a decrease of 38,000 bpd from the production level in June. Meanwhile, OPEC members together produced 30.6 million bpd in July, an increase of 607,000 bpd over June production [Fars News Agency, 2 August].
the oil is goint to be finished in the next 30-40 years
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the estimates made by the anonymous (Aug 3, 6:55 AM) regarding the number of years for Iran's oil to finish is off by many years ! According to estimates made by the International Energy Agency (IEA)¸ Iran's "proven" reserves of over 152 billion barrels will last about 115 years if current production rates continue. Of course, production will have to rise as Iran's own oil demand will rise. One can think of a scenario in which Iran's increasing domestic (assuming 5% per year) would be met at the expense declining lower oil exports. This would mean that oil exports will decline to zero barrel per day in about 22 years. Assuming that increases in domestic demand beyond the zero export are met by increases in production, then the remaining reserves will last about an additional 38 years and so the current reserves will be depleted in about 60 years. If domestic demand growth is reduced to 4% per year, then depletion happens after about 67 years. Other plausible scenarios can also prevail. The above assumes that there is no further discoveries of proven reserves.
ReplyDeleteAzar ....