By Nader Uskowi
In the past 48 hours, they have been much talk, mostly of a belligerent tone, coming from Iran and countered by the Pentagon that the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for oil tanker traffic, could or could not be closed. I leave the discussion on the feasibility of closing the Strait by the Iranian naval forces to our own Mark Pyruz and our readers and commentators informed on naval capabilities. Here I examine two scenarios in which Iran would be tempted, indeed forced to attempt closing the Strait.
1. As publicly proclaimed by Iran’s Vice President Rahimi on Tuesday, Iran will attempt to close the Strait, preventing the flow of “even one drop of oil” in the Persian Gulf, if the West were to impose sanctions against the country’s oil exports, the word’s third largest. The West (following the US lead) will not impose such sanctions, not anytime soon, fearing a dramatic rise in oil prices. They might, however, do the same indirectly: putting the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) on the blacklist, therefore disrupting the payments to the Iranians for any import of Iran oil. The US Congress has already passed legislation authorizing President Obama to impose sanctions against the CBI.
2. The second possibility, not much discussed in the press, is if and when the UAE, with the active support of Saudi Arabia, and the behind-the-scene support of the West, occupies the three disputed islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and the Lesser Tunbs in the Persian Gulf. The UAE has claimed the ownership of those islands and the Saudis and the Gulf Cooperation Council, comprising of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, have backed the UAE claim. If the Saudis and the GCC feel an imminent threat from Iran during a time of rising public discontent with the ruling families, which they appear to be acting as if they do, and if they can get the backing of the US and the West, they might just occupy the three islands in the coming months.
Iran can create much trouble for the occupying armies, but at the end of the day it might not be capable of taking the islands back. Such possibility would have severe, and yet unforeseen consequences inside Iran: the population is told, and generally believes that Iran is a mighty force and no power, least of all the lowly UAE, would dare occupying the three islands. But what if they do, and what if Iran would be unable to take them back? The Iranians would definitely attempt to close the Strait, but if they could not take the islands back, with the Strait closed or not, the public would lose the belief in the invincibility of their government and could turn against it sooner than anyone could pronounce the name of the three islands. And that could well be the ultimate goal of the UAE, the GCC and the Western allies.
I see that COMUSNAVCENT has set BZMSO15 conditions as of a few hours ago, IMO if a US flagged vessel is stopped/boarded by Iran within the next few days, we will go to war.
ReplyDeleteThe heavy lifting has been completed, good luck all.
6:11
ReplyDeletethanks for that. looks like the MOP boys in DG went to AS015 today.
this stuff is happening quicker than i thought it would.
EZbit
Iran has apparently had enough with the false accusations of nuclear bomb development and sanctions designed to "cripple" its people.
ReplyDeleteWhat does the West expect a person to do when faced with being crippled? Stand there and let you do it?
Their attitude is that they may as well be crippled in a fight.
If Iran close the Strait of Hormuz it will only lead to the regimes downfall.Why?
ReplyDeleteBecause Iran exports all its oil through the straits and if that is blocked by Iran then two can play that game namely the US navy which can easily prevent Iran from exporting its oil which after a number of weeks will lead to the collapse of the Islamic regime.
Saudi can export its oil through the Red sea region.And if Iran attacks Saudi oil terminals then Iran will be in a act of war against the West and Iran will lose that war.
To all those numbskulls out there that support the Islamic dictatorship snap out of your self inflicted coma and drag yourselves into reality because the regime will loose this war for Iran and there wouldn't be enough poison chalices to go around for the leadership and its members.
7:23, If an 8 year war against the world + chemical weapons attacks on Iranian soldiers + having zero equipment to fight with didn't bring down the Iranian government, what makes you think that will?
ReplyDeleteThe only question is how much the Iranian nation will suffer to preserve their dignity and sovreignty.
7:55 PM,
ReplyDeleteWars in general can actually rally the people behind their governments, and they do, and of course Iran is no exception, as the 8-year war showed and you have correctly pointed out. That same argument can still hold for today’s Iran. But there is also a real possibility that the situation would be much different than the first years of the revolution, and as such a different outcome could emerge. Khamenei is no Khomeini; the good will toward a revolution barely a year old is no more; and a government identified as much by perpetual crisis and corruption than accomplishments is in place of a young revolutionary government. The expectations from the military in those days were also very low. Things are not the same, and same outcomes should be taken for granted.
On top of that, the people have been told, again and again, in different forms and on different occasions, that the Iranian military is a match to the US and the Western powers and can rule the Persian Gulf, and the people generally have believed it. Now suppose that the country cannot perform as advertised in a showdown with the West, and the Saudis and the UAE. On similar situations, people have turned against their government, and today’s Iran should be no exception.
The vast majority of Iranians support the nuclear program, which has far greater support than Khomeini had in 1981.
ReplyDeleteThe regime is far stronger now than it was in its fleeting new days.
"Now suppose that the country cannot perform as advertised in a showdown with the West, and the Saudis and the UAE."
ReplyDeleteWhat happened during the Iraq war, when Iran suffered staggering defeats?
I suggest iran should close the strait for 1 or 2 days.
ReplyDeletethen we sdoul look what the can or will the US do ?
If they ships are like their drones, then nothing happens and we have higher oil prices
Iran's latest naval exercise appears more serious than previous years. Bear in mind a few months ago, Iran's military conducted more intense air defense drills, with the subsequent result of downing of RQ-170 Sentinel.
ReplyDeleteI'm less concerned about a GCC amphibious assault on the disputed PG islands. It would require a high degree of coordination between allies, as well as training and US led support. For such support, it would be best for the US to rely on its own military rather than second-stringers with dependent militaries. And let's face it, KSA's performance on the Yemen frontier doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
The Iranians are fairly predictable. If their oil exports are going to be drastically affected by any form of blockade - be it sanctions or an outright naval blockade - then they'll direct retaliatory efforts at disrupting other oil exports in the region.
As far as IRIN or IRGCN stopping and boarding US-flagged vessels, the Iranians are aware of which vessels are which, and if and when there are boardings, then softer offerings are available which serve the same effect.
But make no mistake about it, the level of tension and odds of open conflict are rising. The Iranians aren't going to blink. They didn't do so in 2007, and indications are they expect a U.S. belligerent attack either as an "October surprise" or as a result of a non-Ron Paul GOP election win in November.
Anon 7:55 PM
ReplyDeleteThe Iranian people don't want to suffer for a bunch of liars anymore because the regimes hand has been exposed for what they are thieves liars and killers.
And another thing America is not Iraq.If your so keen to fight the US go to Afghanistan and fight them there because I know that Iranian people are not that dump to believe that they could defeat the us in a all out war.What Iran needs is to get rid of this theocracy and build the country in peace without all the religious nonsense and fanaticism.
Anon 9:31 PM
ReplyDeleteYou believe that do you?
The regime has armed basij and IRGC forces in every street corner of the cities.Have you been to Tehran lately?
This regime is scared of its own shadow.No one has any faith or trust in this regime.No one.
The Strait of Hormuz could be a distraction.
ReplyDeleteIran surely considers the loss of Syria a bigger and more strategic threat as it involves the sustainability of Hezbollah, Hamas and it's plans against Israel.
Nouri al-Maliki has already said that Iraq (and the Sadrists) would intervene to support the Syrian Shia and Assad. There has already been word that Hezbollah is losing credibility amongst the Syrian Protestors.
Al-Maliki and Iran must be on the cusp of serious decisions vis-a-vis Assad.
AK
@uskowi
ReplyDelete"Now suppose that the country cannot perform as advertised in a showdown with the West, and the Saudis and the UAE. On similar situations, people have turned against their government, and today’s Iran should be no exception".
In 1988 an Iranian mine sanked the USS Samuel B. Roberts the Iranians were involved in a full scale war with Iraq and managed to keep the U.S. Navy at bay. During that time their was no cohesion between the IRIN and the IRGN. The IRGN, was in a state of infancy. Now that is not the case. The IRIN, IRGC,and BASIJI,forces survived two operations. Operation Praying Mantis and Operation Ernest will. This time the U.S./Nato forces face a more professional and formidable foe with a powerful missile force, that has naval warfare experience.Prepare to be overwhelmed and severely disappointed with the perfomance of the U.S. Mr Uskowi.
A few comments on points raised in the article:
ReplyDelete1, The US cannot even get support to intervene in Syria
2,Only the US, UK and France back an oil embargo, it will not happen as China, India, Japan and South Korea rely on Iranian oil. Russia and Iran share similar strategic interests (Syria for example). Russia and China will not stand for an attack on Iran.
3, Irans strength is not in its conventional military, but in asymmetric warfare. Even if the conventional navy is wiped out there will still be 100,000 Basijis with bombs strapped round their chests.
4, Look at Shia ideology, look at Lebanon circa 2006. Iran will claim victory regardless.
5, See any act of aggression by America as the last act of a deaperate nation on the decline.
6, Fooled once , but not twice. Western populations are not as easily convinced into war after Iraq debacle. Its diaspora and cultural influences in the west make it much more difficult to create the fear and 'bogeyman' effect like with Saddam and Ghadafi.
9:32~~~~
ReplyDeleteWhat happened during the Iraq war, when Iran suffered staggering defeats?~~~~
the defeats inflicted upon Iran by the Iraqis can not be compared to what the US can inflict, at will.
---------
7:11
~~~~"Their attitude is that they may as well be crippled in a fight."~~~
they'll be more than crippled in a fight with the US military. the regime will be swept away.
US threatens to bomb Iran / Israel threatens to kill Iran and Iran threatens to shut a waterway.
ReplyDeleteso what
This article is nothing more than Mr. Uskowi advocating/shilling for Iran to do the capitulation dance. All he's saying here is Iran should just roll over and allow the US to dominate the region...FAT CHANCE!!
ReplyDeleteThe reason the US is being more confrontational in their approach vis-a-vis Iran is that they somehow have made the calculations that they could "win"..Now what that "win" might be is anybody's guess. But I don't suppose the US will come out stronger after the show.
Mind you, the Iraq - Afghanistan war has weakened the US both economically/politically/militarily. Simply put, they do not have money for another adventure in the region.It will be suicidal..Iran doesn't even need to win..Just by surviving any US onslaught is enough to defeat them.
And one may ask, how long is the US prepared to fight Iran in an open warfare? 10, 15, 20, 30 years? Unless they have plans to kill all Iranians in the country by dropping an atomic bomb like they did to the Japanese, they shouldn't even dare try because Iran will NEVER bow to the US.
As for the PGCC oil Sheiks, I wouldn't bother too much about them. Bahrain is boiling, Saudi Arabia is seething and it's only a matter of time before something drastic(toppling of the regime) happens in those places. Any war against Iran will only speed up the demise of these Sheiks. Remember, Iran already have an axe to grind with them as they openly financed/supported Saddam Hussein's war against Iran.
The three Islands cannot be invaded, there are so many defences on the island and your are viewing the islands as seperate entities to Iran.
ReplyDeleteAttacking Iranian Islands is an act of war and the UAE will be turned into rubble and their oil infrastructure set back a few decades.
Iran Will Prevail!
ReplyDeleteand starve U.S./Nato Zionazi westerners, back to the dark ages.
"the defeats inflicted upon Iran by the Iraqis can not be compared to what the US can inflict, at will."
ReplyDeleteReally? The US plans to do worse than using chemical nerve agents on hundreds of thousands of soldiers and launching air strikes on thousands of civilian areas?
What more else could the world's arrogant and bully nation of the U.S., which is on the brinks of bankcruptcy and collapse, do against the mighty Islamic Republic of Iran instead of spying and imposing sanctions after sanctions, years after years, since the famous tragic event of 1979's Islamic Revolution?
ReplyDeleteB A R K I N G!
mat....For once your right when you said "since the famous tragic event of 1979's Islamic revolution."
ReplyDeleteKey word is TRAGIC.
Indeed it was tragic to have that Islamic so called revolution.
~~~~Really? The US plans to do worse than using chemical nerve agents on hundreds of thousands of soldiers and launching air strikes on thousands of civilian areas?~~~
ReplyDeleteyou bet your arse. if Iran fires upon the United States Navy, every Iranian naval vessel will be destroyed and the naval bases will be destroyed, in a day.
after that, unless Iran begs off, every military installation of any size in the country and every electricity generating plant and oil refinery would be bombed, within a week.
the US would not have a need to use chemical weapons. the US has no shortage of high-explosives or any shortage of the means to deliver them to any part of Iran.
A war with Iran is an unnecessary and undesirable thing, and Iran would lose that war very badly and in short order.
Let's all hope it does not come to war.
Anon 4:49 PM
ReplyDeleteTotally spot on !
@Anon
ReplyDeleteDecember 29, 2011 4:49 PM
Want to put your Money where your mouth is?
a 2008 U.S.N.,computer wargame called millineum challenge says that you wrong.
~~~~a 2008 U.S.N.,computer wargame called millineum challenge says that you wrong.~~~
ReplyDeleteno. it does not. the war game predicted that Iran could damage the US ships near to Iran....
it didn't say what would happen to Iran's navy and military bases after that happened.
that's what you had better focus upon. a single US fleet is a fraction of the US military and Iran has no protection from US missiles and then US aircraft.
~~~~a 2008 U.S.N.,computer wargame called millineum challenge says that you wrong.~~~
ReplyDeleteno. it does not. the war game predicted that Iran could damage the US ships near to Iran....
it didn't say what would happen to Iran's navy and military bases after that happened.
that's what you had better focus upon. a single US fleet is a fraction of the US military and Iran has no protection from US missiles and then US aircraft.
"What is the U.S. doing?". "What else, barking".
ReplyDelete