Greece Objected to an Embargo
EU foreign ministers failed today to reach an agreement to impose an oil embargo against Iran. They could only agree to add 37 people and 143 companies and organizations to the sanctions list, including the Iranian shipping line, IRISL, and entities controlled by IRGC.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said that Greece, which relies on Iranian oil, had objected to Iran oil embargo.
“Greece has put forward a number of reservations,” Juppe said. “We have to take that into account. We have to see with our partners that the cuts can be compensated by the increase of production in other countries. It (the embargo) is very possible,” he added [AP, 1 December].
The EU will find a willing supplier by the name of Saudi Arabia and possibly other oil producing countries.This regime must not get away with it.
ReplyDeleteChamenei should recognize Isreal as an legitimate state in the region; that would help to solve many of these problems; but he does not care about the iranian economy ...
ReplyDeleteAnon 11:57 AM
ReplyDeleteSaudi Arabia and other oil producing countries are already supplying oil to EU. That's why the EU fails to impose oil embargo on Iran because EU could not find any suitable replacement to make up Iran oil shortfall.
The European Union is facing a severe existential threat at the moment and it has lost legitimacy in the eyes of its own citizens. European politicians could either tackle the root cause of their problems or they could divert public attention towards a bogeyman in the east. The Islamic Republic of Iran has filled the vacuum left behind by the USSR in this regard and it is brought to the limelight whenever a diversion is needed.
ReplyDeleteThe rhetoric one hears from Western as well as Iranian politicians is nothing but a political game. They need the hostilities to continue more than they are to benefit from their ending.
Mr. Uskowi, I am curious why you chose the AP article with its emphasis on "only" so many new sanctioned entities and people.
ReplyDeleteAre you saying the EU fell far short of the mark, that the only meaningful sanctions hit would have been an oil embargo?
Many thanks for a reply in advance. I have followed your blog for years.
Best wishes,
Anon1:55 PM
ReplyDeleteI know.
Saudi Arabia could after a number of months increase oil production.
Anon 2:27 PM,
ReplyDelete‘Only’ was in relation to the announced goal of the oil embargo before the FM meeting started; adding people and organization to the sanctions list was indeed a failure of the previously announced aim of the foreign ministers.
I believe the effects of the sanctions in the past 4-5 years have varied. They have been mostly ineffective; with the exception of the ones related to the banking and financial sector. Here too the effects of the banking sanctions have been relative. They would become very effective if the US goes ahead with sanctions against the Central Bank (CBI). It appears they might go with some sort of targeted sanctions against CBI, but they are very concerned that all-out sanctions against CBI will upset the oil markets, and not expected to happen.
By extension, a real oil embargo doesn’t appear to be in the works. The US is seriously concerned with a sharp rise in the price of oil and gasoline at a time of a deep recession in the West. Needless to say, that’s the only real sanction, as the economic lifeline of Iran depends on oil exports.
I regularly use AP, AFP, Xinhua and other news agencies when the story is datelined outside Iran.
Thanks so much for your readership and kind words.
Thank you, sir. Frankly, I expected as much. All day in Brussels, EU apologists beat down the notion that an oil embargo was even in the cards, it was NEVER the goal, etc., etc.
ReplyDeleteAnd my kind words about your insights are well-deserved. I hope the people of Iran get the future they so richly deserve.
I want to underscore that in the coming days and weeks, your observations and those of your partners will be increasingly important.
Best wishes again,
Once the Libyan oil exports are back to normal this would be a nonissue.
ReplyDeleteAs horrible as this is for the people and the economy of Iran, this regime is latching on so tight that it won't give up power unless there is total system collapse.
"Once the Libyan oil exports are back to normal this would be a nonissue.
ReplyDeleteAs horrible as this is for the people and the economy of Iran, this regime is latching on so tight that it won't give up power unless there is total system collapse."
i think you realy underscore unreasonable iranians who oppose the current government, are you crazy so for the right to wear miniskirts and be gay in iran your willing let the iranian economy be destroyed
Jabbar Fazeli, MD said...
ReplyDeleteOnce the Libyan oil exports are back to normal this would be a nonissue.
As horrible as this is for the people and the economy of Iran, this regime is latching on so tight that it won't give up power unless there is total system collapse.
December 1, 2011 5:08 PM
===================================
Hello Jabbar Fazeli,
The EU likes the light sweet stuff and by the begining of 2013 Libya will be sending at least 1.8 mbpd to the EU, count on it and by 2014 this number will be above 2.1 mbpd.
The oil producing infrastructure in Libya was not destroyed anywhere near as bad as people think...(nothing like Iraq).
Libya's oil & gas industry needs the money, experience and new technology that the west is now bringing, things are already ramping up nicely, as of last week production is past 620,000 bpd.
Here is a chart showing the ramp up through October:
http://www.statsweeper.com/index.php?g=daily.1815
Meanwhile Iran's hatered of the rest of the world causes its production to continue to decline:
http://www.statsweeper.com/index.php?g=daily.1813
Anonymous said
ReplyDeletei think you realy underscore unreasonable iranians who oppose the current government, are you crazy so for the right to wear miniskirts and be gay in iran your willing let the iranian economy be destroyed
December 1, 2011 6:20 PM
Dear anonymous,
The job of government is not to manage the below the waist issues of the people, or their relationships with their gods. For all i care, you can be both gay and wear a miniskirt. No one's life would be effected by it, unless you happens to like gays in miniskirts (not that anything is wrong with that).
You yourself have only the freedom to support the regime and not the freedom to oppose it. if you don't believe me, I suggest you give it a try, just for kicks.
Your steadfast support of the regime is admirable, but please note that In the adult world we live in, enveryone, including governments, are held responsible for the consequences of their own actions. The cyber basij can't argue this away, no matter how hard you try.
PS. With all due respect, please consider aliases instead of annoynimous posts, so that the readers here can know which government agent they are talking to.
If you are confident of he longevity of the regime, you should have nothing to worry about.
Anon 6:20 PM
ReplyDeleteNo pal Iranians want freedom from unreasonable religious bigots and fanatics which claim Iran for themselves and treat it like one large religious seminary.
And since when being gay and women wearing mini skirts has got to do with the struggle for basic human rights in a ultra fascist bigoted inhuman despotic regime in control of Iran.
Besides what are you doing living in the West if those so called horrible things offend you?
Just go back to Iran and enjoy the fascist regimes freedom loving democracy.
Hypocrite.
"And since when being gay and women wearing mini skirts has got to do with the struggle for basic human rights"
ReplyDeletebecause the opposition to the current government is centered on a section of the Iranian middle and upper class who with there money have little regard for morality its simple as that so they want western liberalism with a care for economic and social consequences for majority of people living their life
basic right to have dignity in terms of upper class behaving they are social Darwinist who are superior to those who haven't made it exists for majority of Iranians it doesn't if you live in the west
Redz,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment.
I just realized the group commentaries are existing on multiple tears; your argument had the most logic so you must be the higher teri debater.
Having said that I disagree with you for the following:
1. Even if you were right about the need for government sponsored morality controls, the Iranian government is still responsible for the political isolation of Iran and the irresponsible actions that led to the issues being discussed this week. Your arguments don't absolve them of this responsibility.
2. Iran has more prostitutes and drug edicts now than it ever had, I think that's common knowledge. It is also common knowledge that the clergy have legalized short term hourly marriage contract which the rest of the world calls illegal escort service.
Moral policing policy in Iran has also created a generation that has to lie to survive the system. If you want a government job in iran you have to have a 6 o'clock shadow and wear cheap cloths, even if you are one of the revolutionary guard run of the mill milliners.
Following this line of thinking Iran has targeted its most honest and educated, for the past 30 years, pushing them into self exile, to the detriment of the country. They did so using labels such as elitists and social Darwinists.
3. Since we are discussing economy, its worth noting that the Iranian diaspora are in the millions, all eager to visit the old country and spend the great satan's currency.
This potential multibillion dollar tourist income is not part of the economic equation because the Iranian government is concerned that their brains might contain thoughts they might not like, or that we might have illegal sex in their own homes.
Wouldn't be great if this corrupt government would simply grow up and Step out of the way, so we might avoid the loss of a yet another generation.
If that were to happen, people would be free to live their own private lives based on their own moralities and debates like this can happen without one side in control of the destiny of the other.
As long as countries like China and India want to import Iran's oil, Obama's sanctions are just diplomatic theater.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2:42 PM
ReplyDeleteEven if Saudi Arabia could ramp up oil production, it would hardly put a dent on Iran's oil profits, since most of Iran's crude oil go to Asian countries.
Interesting article:
ReplyDeleteIran Oil Embargo Could Hurt Europe and Help China, Russia
Mr. Uskowi,
ReplyDeleteYou should do a thorough analysis on this very dangerous period in history. Let's review:
Things in the United States are atrocious. It never recovered from the 2007-08 recession and has essentially been in a depression since. There is little hope either, as any analysis of the American financial and economic situation is abysmal.
Things in Europe have come suddenly crashing to a halt. Europe was doing relatively well (although still in a recession) but suddenly a cascade of events have left them on the verge too.
Emboldened by the ease of the Libya events, NATO is confident in its ability to enact a quick regime change.
Pakistan, America's former lead ally, has lost its patience since the killing of 25 Pakistani troops.
Egypt has gone to the Islamists, further riling up the west.
Right now the west is like a dog trapped in the corner, and it is only a matter of time until it strikes out. Things could get very ugly for Iran very quickly.
donot worry anytime iran feel threated from his oil export will blow up arab oil than crisis for every one in the world /fanny is it.
ReplyDeleteredz
ReplyDeleteThe most immoral members of Iranian society are the mullahs redz.
They sell everything including young Iranian girls to other gulf countries.They use Seqhe and disguise it in religious sanctity.They allow 9 year old girls yes children to marry men and disguise it in religious sanctity.
They torture and hang under age boys in the name of religion.
Five per cent of Iran's oil wealth is given to Basij so that they can oppress the Iranian nation.The Basij club stab and kill Iranian demonstrators for wanting freedom and you call that "middle class".
So redz where is the morality you claim that self serving barbaric regime that you so love to defend?
The regime in Iran is the most corrupt immoral barbaric entity in Iran's history more so than even the mongols and regime apologists like you defend them.
Shame on you redz!
Anon 9:11 AM
ReplyDeleteThat's right and the regime will be wiped out of the map!
thanks jabber for yours
ReplyDeletei would say first of all to your point with iran has higher number of prostitution and drugs addiction then before thats simply to be expected as the economy and the middle class grew over the last thirty years but a counterpoint for you is that iran is the onlymiddle income economy that exists right next to a narco state or region of great narco activity with the deaths of thousands of iranian irgc and border guards has this predicament not destablised the entire country think MEXICO and the countrys in bitween them and colombia and whats happened to them
yes in iran n meny institutions of the government chooses people who fit the profile of good muslim to an extente thats unerstandable in some institutions but i dont think thats true for skilled ones and the current privatisation should give these people enough of an aternative but the iranian brain drain has got nothing to o with governments choice of who it selects for getting jobs cause most would dress the part if they thought they were going to get a job so its simply to do with highly qualified people since iran has great education system partly due to the mullahs investment in them they have better oppertunities aboroad think ISREALs brain drain compared to arab countries
visting iran well thats just matter of economics and sanctions again to think why saudis and chinease always go back
theres definetly meny problems currently and iran needs reform and think thats unaviodable in 2013 but in the next few years when western economies are weaker n chinease are stronger the sanction may ease so its tough period iran needs support in the right areas from those who claim to care about it
redz
ReplyDeleteThere will be no reforming the theocracy because there will be no theocratic mullah regime in the year 2013.
It's all over redz.
The party the mullahs had is over.
Finished.
1:05, Then maybe you should stop posting about it and take a break.
ReplyDeleteThe EU did not "fail". The EU did its job: restricting some crazy members (Britain, France) from doing some serious damage.
ReplyDeleteThat is what the EU is about.
Bernhard from Germany
Anon 1:37 PM
ReplyDeleteThere will be no break until mullah regime collapses.
Get used to it.
I have noticed some regime apologists are vacant from these posts since yesterday.Is it because they have been part of the so called diplomatic service from the Iranian Embassy in London?
ReplyDeleteWish the Iran Air pilots all the luck in transporting the rubbish back to Tehran.
~~~~~Things in the United States are atrocious. It never recovered from the 2007-08 recession and has essentially been in a depression since. There is little hope either, as any analysis of the American financial and economic situation is abysmal.~~~~
ReplyDeleteheh heh heh.......
GDP of iran....$333billion
GDP of US.......$14.5 TRILLION
more than 43 times greater--
------
per capita income in Iran .... $,5,500
per capita income in US......$46,600
unemployment rate in Iran ......14.5 %
unemployment rate in US ......... 9%
-----
inflation in Iran.......19%
inflation in US........ 4%
--------
Iran has become a Narco Terrorist country no thanks to Gohmeini and his cohorts and still this ignorant and hypocritical regime continues with their terroristic stunts and behavior which is expected from such kooks.
ReplyDeletebelieve me as long as yourpeople think like that the government of iran is save for hunderd of years the best way to look with open eyes to see the things someone has not see it for my view lot of unrealated word and common here even the child knows that is wrong .
ReplyDeleteThe Iranian embassy staff have returned as "hero's" to Tehran and have been received by so called people aka basij thugs at airport. Kind of reminds me of the other "hero" which went back to Libya and was received by Gaddafi regime also was televised for propaganda.
ReplyDeleteVery flimsy indeed.
8:15, the errors in your numbers are as follows:
ReplyDelete1. It's not a matter of where the US is relative to Iran, it's where it is relative to where it was. Things are very bad here, and the future looks terrible because none of the fundamental problems have been fixed.
2. Greece also has a very high GDP per capita and other "good" statistics relative to Iran. Greece's statistics are comparable to America. Statistics don't mean much in a time where they can be manipulated.
3. For example, unemployment in the US is only 9% because they blatantly mismeasure it. Just this morning the press was aghast at the drop in unemployment to 8.6% - not because jobs were created - but because 315,000 Americans were no longer counted in the statistics!
4. There is a huge wealth disparity in the US. A few make a lot of money, the rest live like slaves, like people in South Tehran, overworked and living in cramped apartments with roommates. So per capita numbers don't mean much.
I could go on but I hope that helped.
```There is a huge wealth disparity in the US. A few make a lot of money, the rest live like slaves,```
ReplyDeletethere is an ENORMOUS wealth disparity were some have incredible wealth....and the rest live not at all like slaves, my friend....but far better than you wish to believe, a poor American lives decently and well compared to the poor in most of the world.
read this again
per capita income in Iran .... $,5,500
what we call poverty for a single American is .....$10, 800
for a family of 4, we call poverty an income of $22,000
a poor American lives a far more free life than do most iranian citizens.
---- I don;t know where you live or what lies you're being told ....but if you're someplace where you have access to other than "official" news sources.....
look at them and re-think things a bit.
Iranian unemployment is REPORTED at the figure I gave, but the real one is higher as well......
good luck and good health to you and your family.
Anon 9:54 PM
ReplyDeleteWhat government in Iran?
Anon 2:24
ReplyDeleteYou simply didn't noting real economy correctly. Stat wasn't reflect reality at all. Why don't u learn a bite about exchange value, n find out what $46,600 means for US and how worth $,5,500 for Iranian.
Cheers.
What is Greece's GDP per capita? Go look that up and compare it to Iran, then ask yourself which country has the better economy.
ReplyDelete~~~~Why don't u learn a bite about exchange value, n find out what $46,600 means for US and how worth $,5,500 for Iranian. ~~~~
ReplyDeleteGDP adjusted for purchasing power,,,,,,
US----48,600
Iran--- 10,800
with current estimates suggesting that the purchasing power Gdp for Iranians will increase by about 200/year for the next couple of years and the increase in the US will be 6 times greater than that 200.
----
the difference is HUGE and increasing , friend , particular when one factors in the basic lcost of living/ discretionary spending factor.
still waiting for Greece's per capital gdp.
ReplyDeleteA big reason why per capita GDP and other statistics in Iran are low is because Iranians don't report their income, so they don't have to pay taxes.
ReplyDeleteIn the US such tactics are very serious and will send you to jail. In Iran only a "khar" pays taxes.
There is a gigantic unreported economy in Iran. Put statistics aside and compare QOL (ignoring clothing restrictions and other cultural matters, look only at economics) between Tehran and say New York. They are very comparable.
NEW DELHI/LONDON (Reuters) – The European Union is becoming skeptical about slapping sanctions on imports of Iranian oil, diplomats and traders say, as awareness grows that the embargo could damage its own economy without doing much to undercut to Iran's oil revenues.
ReplyDeleteOil accounts for 50 percent of Iranian budget revenues, and those arguing for sanctions say they can deprive Tehran of billions of dollars and derail what the West sees as Iran's attempts to build a nuclear bomb.
But diplomats and oil industry insiders say Europe may calculate that even a small rise in oil prices as a result of an introduction of an EU-de embargo would more than compensate Tehran for any losses from being obliged to re-route displaced s to Asia at discounted prices.
Read more: Exclusive: EU thinks twice about Iran oil ban
Anon 9:39 AM
ReplyDeleteDon't worry the decisions have been made and this regime will cease to exist by 2013.