Baghdad
Talks between Iran and the six global powers are set to start this morning. The
talks are the latest of a series of meetings between the two sides on the
future of Iran’s nuclear program. But up to now these meetings have been about
setting up future meetings and their success or failure have been defined in
terms of atmospherics, especially if the American and Iranian delegations were
nice to each other or not. Baghdad promises to break away from this trend and
offer the first consequential talks between the two sides.
Even
before the Baghdad Talks got underway, we witnessed a likely breakthrough in
IAEA’s push to have free access to inspect the country’s nuclear and relevant
military sites. A so-called framework agreement, defining an additional
protocol on IAEA’s access to the sites, nuclear officials and scientists and
documents, were hammered out during IAEA director’s visit to Tehran on Monday
and is reportedly getting ready to be signed soon. Such access would be key to
an agreement in Baghdad to begin the process of ending the decade-old dispute
with Iran over the nature of its nuclear program, which has resulted in serious
economic sanctions against the country.
If
IAEA-Iran additional protocol agreement is signed soon, as expected, then the
Iranians, starting later today in Baghdad, will demand easing of the biting
sanctions. The demand would create a challenge for the West. There were the
sanctions, they would argue, that led Iran to accept the IAEA demands, and
lifting them now would take away their trump card to push Iran to stop
enriching uranium at purities higher than five percent and stop the operations at Fordo enrichment facility. Not easing the sanctions,
however, would not entice the Iranians to make any further concessions. So we
should expect an agreement in Baghdad that ties the easing of sanctions,
especially delaying the oil-related sanctions that are to go into effect at the end
of June, to the signing and implementation of the additional protocol with
IAEA.
Such
agreement could well lead to a more comprehensive agreement at Baghdad on an
end to Iran’s production of 20-percent fuel and a guarantee by the major powers
to supply the country the needed fuel for its nuclear research reactor in
Tehran. Iran could also accept a swap agreement to exchange most of its
five-percent enriched uranium with the higher purity fuel on an
on-going basis.
Baghdad
could well become the beginning of an end to the decade-old standoff over the future of Iran's nuclear program.
Nader, are you saying the Iranians are going to be put into a regimen where their current 5% LEU will be traded on an ongoing basis until it is exhausted, and that future LEU production will be be stopped?
ReplyDeleteIf so, I think you're misreading the Iranians. They're looking for recognition of their right to nuclear fuel production, ie enrichment.
And you need to also take into account that Iran's success at 20% LEU production has set up the conditions where possibly its fuel production activities (at 5%) are now being considered by the West, as well as Iran's' counter-sanctions which have a bite of their own (we Californians are paying 60 cents a gallon more for fuel, as an indirect consequence of these), providing the West with cause for looking into the existing Russian plan with its roadmap for stripping away sanctions.
No, I am saying that. I am saying Iran will continue producing 5-percent fuel and will exchange part of that for 20-percent fuel needed for Tehran reactor. The rest would be used as fuel for the country percent and future nuclear power reactors. In a sense Iran will purchase 20-percent fuel from the West, most probably by swapping some of its 5-percent file for it.
ReplyDeleteJust noticed too many typos in my response, sorry! Let me try again! I am NOT saying that Iran will swap all its five-percent fuel with the higher 20-percent variety. I am saying that Iran could agree to an end to its production of 20-percent fuel, but continue producing the five-percent, and swap part of it for 20-percent fuel on an on-going basis. The rest of the five-percent fuel can be used in present and future nuclear power reactors.
ReplyDeleteIran will keep the 5% and will keep the 20%.
ReplyDeleteIt will probably not expand the 20% (probably)
It will keep its capacity to produce fuel plates in case the West is again pushed by Israel into blackmailing Iran.
otherwise the whole Iranian endurance of hardships would evaporate into waste.
Azari by fortune,Iranian by Grace of God.
Dariush London
I also believe the western countries to be trying to find a way to close this case they kept pushing only to presure Iran.
ReplyDeleteKermanshahi by fortune and Irani by Grace of God :)