“U.S. military strikes on Iran would shake the regime's political
control and damage its ability to launch counterstrikes, but the Iranians
probably would manage to retaliate, directly and through surrogates, in ways
that risked igniting all-out war in the Middle East,” said an assessment of an
attack's costs and benefits conducted by U.S. national security experts. (AP,
13 September)
The report said the objective of preventing Iran from obtaining a
nuclear bomb is unlikely to be achieved through military force if action is
limited to a combination of airstrikes, cyber attacks, covert operations and
special operations strikes.
The report added that achieving more than a temporary setback for up
to four years in Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon would require a
military operation - including a land occupation - more taxing than the Iraq
and Afghanistan wars combined.
“The report is intended to have what we call an informing influence
and hopefully something of a calming influence, but that's something readers
will have to answer for themselves,” said Thomas Pickering, a former U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations.
"We do not believe it would lead to regime change, regime
collapse or capitulation,” the report said. “A more ambitious military campaign
designed to oust the Iranian regime of hardline clerics or force an undermining
of Iran's influence in the Mideast would require the U.S. to occupy part or all
of the country.” (AP)
Photo credit: A U.S. F-15 over the Grand Canyon in 2008. U.S. Air Force/Haaretz
Photo credit: A U.S. F-15 over the Grand Canyon in 2008. U.S. Air Force/Haaretz
35 comments:
Recent protests about blasphemous movie, have raised tension in the region and it may need several weeks to recede.
That gives an additional breath and a relief to the Islamic Republic...
"That gives an additional breath and a relief to the Islamic Republic..."
So you admit that the sanctions have got an effect on the Islamic regime, because it is slowly but surly suffocating.
The most effective way to change the current regime is by U.S. army invasion from Azerbaijan into northern Iran form there they can quickly move into Tehran and occupy all government buildings and institutions, once the capital is freed from the grip of the Mullahs, then the rest of the country will rise up against the dictatorship. The Iranian military will crumble and disintergrate just like Iraq's. It must be done sooner than later, or else the people of Iran will have to live under brutal opression for infinity. It's impossible for the Iranian people to oust the Mullahs from power and attain freedom and true democracy. We are waiting in vain, because that day will never come.
Anon 7:05 AM
"It's impossible for the Iranian people to oust the mullahs from power and attain freedom and true democracy. We are waiting in vain,because that day will never come."
That last sentence confirms to me that you are a regime sponsored troll.
If the US attacks Iran, is there anything to prevent Iran from targeting all of the US ships patrolling and docked in the waters of the middle east?
Arash Darya-Bandari said...
If the US attacks Iran, is there anything to prevent Iran from targeting all of the US ships patrolling and docked in the waters of the middle east?
-------
nothing to prevent it except the ability of the US to destroy Iran's military forces unless they hide.
@Arash Darya-Bandari
Put it this way,whose to prevent the US from wiping out the Islamic regimes military infrastructure from existence before that should ever happen?
On a more serious note. If the US does attack,which would be devastating.What forces will the Islamic regime have left besides some state sponsored terrorists like Hezbollah and a sundry of other terrorists.
the most effective to overthrow the Iranian regime is to be found within Iran. it's the responsibility of Iranians to see that they are decently governed.
Many people outside iran are willing to help, but no one should be counted upon to do the job if the iranian people won't do it.
Anon 7:58 AM
Indeed. This misguided troll has obviously forgotten the Iraq War debacle.
Anon 12:26 PM
It's one thing to destroy Iran's military forces, but it's another to destroy Iran's asymmetrical forces which is an entirely different kettle of fish!
--- t's one thing to destroy Iran's military forces, but it's another to destroy Iran's asymmetrical forces which is an entirely different kettle of fish!---
yes, they will retain their ability to kill masses of unguarded civilians and possibly do other things that will be criminal, ugly and very disconcerting before they are neutralized.
and since they will be obviously linked to iran, the response to criminal acts will be not at all pleasant for Iran.
Iranians might get to see public executions of Iranian regime figures instead of public executions of homosexuals and those convicted of “armed robbery, kidnapping, drinking alcohol, and [participating] in immoral relationships”.
might be an interesting change.
Anon 4:54 PM
The only asymmetrical tactic left will be for members of the regime to scarper in different directions, hopefully without being detected!
US against Iran =
ISRAEl against Hibullah
USA can never win such war
who can not stand against a few number of Iraqi , Afghan AK47 fighter can not go to war with iran.
USa donot have real good soldiers, They can not stand a long time in a battelfield.
Anon 9:30 PM
You don't need soldiers on the ground.Just massive air attacks,cruise missiles and possible submarine based ballistic missiles.
How old are you by the way?
Because your last statement is ridiculous.I like to see you stand war for three days and then come here and type your childish rubbish.
If Obama attacks, it will be a slap from a girl. If Romney attacks, he will throw down Amadinejad and annihilate all his tin cans for weapons.
for you idiots claiming that a US attack against iran will be "like a slap from a girl" and other such nonsense.
Ask your self if Saddam felt a slap from a girl....or if he went into hiding after the US toppled his regime in a few short weeks and using only a fraction of the US's weapons and soldiers.
ask yourself how many years Saddam lasted fighting against Iran.
ask yourself how many hundreds of thousands Iranian soldiers died fighting Iraq.......
and remind yourself that the US lost 4,000..... in 8 years.
you are fools.
Anons....
Be advised to check your brains whether they are symetrical on both sides..
Anon 7:46 PM
Your comment is not amusing and they not will flee in the face of US attacks. They have a track history to prove it.
Anon 7:05 AM
Yeah, sure. Let’s invade and occupy Iran. After all, it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan.
/sarcasm
Anon 4:47 PM
Indeed. This misguided troll has obviously forgotten the Iraq War debacle.
Agreed. I can't believe this buffoon even entertain this idea considering the West's disastrous campaign in Iraq and Afghanistan. Shame on him.
Anon 12:30 PM
I found it very amusing!
And the only track record the regime has is a massive dossier on stealing kidnapping imprisonment torture rape and murder.
Hence,when the cookie crumbles they will head in all directions,in a asymmetrical kind of way,LOL!
An invasion of Iran is a real possiblity: check out the Eager Lion 2012 excercise. They have performed drills including beach assault which can only be interpreted as an invasion at Iran's northern shore line at the Caspian Sea, very near the capital Tehran.
The whole thing might start as an air strike, but will be followed up with occupation of key parts of the country, and in that process there is a very real chance that the Coalition then decides to go for regime decapitation. The plan would unfold step by step as they go.
Google...Quote: "Why Bombing Iran Would Mean Invading Iran" article by Robert Wright.
As always, 'barking'........
Anon 1:45 AM
If Obama attacks, it will be a slap from a girl. If Romney attacks, he will throw down Amadinejad and annihilate all his tin cans for weapons.
Obama didn't slap like a girl when he killed Osama bin Laden. As for Romney, this is the same guy who once said, "It's not worth moving heaven and earth and spending billions of dollars just trying to catch one person." He also said that he would not violate the sovereignty of his Pakistani ally to go after bin Laden even if Pakistan don't act and he actually criticized Obama for doing so.
And you expect me to believe that Romney will throw down Ahmadinejad and annihilate all his tin cans for weapons? Yeah right.
Anon 5:24 PM
Did you find it amusing when Hezbollah orchestrated a successful attack on U.S. Marine barracks in 1983 which you conveniently neglect to mention? I don't think so.
Anon 3:10PM
"Many people outside Iran are willing to help (to overthrow Iranian regime)..
So Iranian people will not do it, unless you transfer equipment, money and use a disguise of "human rights' defenses " to organize clandestine networks and organizations (NGO) to incite sabotages and rebellion against the "regime" first.
It has been proven recipe in other countries. Foreign agencies will certainly RENDER "a help" to you.
Anon 10:46AM
"...is anything to prevent Iran from targeting all of the US ships patrolling..."
YES, they can nuke Iran before...
/sarcasm 1:05PM
-Lets invade and occupy Iran... it worked so well in Iraq and Afganistan..
It would be a big fun to see what Russia would do.
And it would create a chance to liberate Russia too, as well as to get more Caspian Sea for Iran too.
Mat said at 1:25PM
- As always, 'barking'.....
Who is 'barking'?
Are you 'barking' at yourself?
Be clearer...
Are you one of this stable's paid actors and in a hurry?
Anon 2:59 PM
I find it more amusing when the angry masses have captured traitors like you in the streets of Tehran!
Anon 3:42 PM
Even if they nuke Iran, Iran's proxies around the world still retained the capability for striking back at them. They can launch multiple 9/11-style attacks if they want to. Of course, 9/11-style attacks are not as devastating as a nuclear attack, but devastating nonetheless.
Anon 3:59 PM
Liberate Russia? LOL, don't make me laugh!
The Zionist Regime of Israel could simply and easily, without any hesitation and wasting no time at all, completely strike those iraqi and syrian suspected nuclear reactors in 1981 and 2007 respectively, within a short period of time and with a lot of fun without even any military retaliation from both states. But instead, it is not when it comes to striking any IRAN's peaceful nuclear energy installation.
The U.S.,militarily, too, could simply and easily defeated those adversaries which were incapable of competing with the military power and might of the U.S. such as Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Iraq and Afghanistan. But instead, the U.S., too, it is not when it comes to messing with IRAN.
The U.S. and Israel, militarily, are just too strong for those weak, hapless and defenceless nations and countries in the world.
Both the Zionists of the U.S. and its master, Israel, have been continuously 'barking' and 'beating the empty drums of war' against IRAN for 33 long wasting years since the victory of the Islamic revolution with the oust of the closest puppet ally of the U.S., the Shah of IRAN back in 1979.
Israelis armed force, had been humiliately defeated and forcibly driven back into its own territory for the first time in history by a regular unit of Hezbollah army in the 34-day Israel-imposed war on Lebanon in July, 2006(go to yahoo youtube).
The 1980-1988 Iraq-imposed war on IRAN, saw Iraq, which had been even fully equipped with a hugh military hardwares, consented, backed up and supported by the U.S. and its 46 others allies including some lackey middle eastern nations. Miracly, with the will of God, IRAN had finally managed to put Iraq back in its place and the war completely ended.(go to yahoo youtube).
Had the U.S. really won the war in Vietnam?
To know how really strong is IRAN's military power, might and capability, one should not ask any common people or dumb soldier but the best, ask the U.S. Pentagon.
*Next year would definitely be 34. Pretty sure!
Anon 7:51 AM
No, a limited aerial campaign on Iran is a real possibility. An invasion of Iran (i.e. full occupation of the country) will make the foreign aggressors lose taste for war for many centuries!
Only the deluded fools would entertain the absurd idea of invading and occupying Iran!
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