Source: AP
As expected, the first shoot down of a medium range (by local standards) missile over Tel Aviv was widely (sometimes wildly) celebrated. I don't mean to rain on the parade, but i still see this as the first successful shoot down of a mid-range missile by any of Israel's defence systems. I'm sure the military "experts" here will be indignant that I'm the one to point that out, but I consider it pointing out the obvious, subject to corrections of course.
Based on my scan of print media, and being very conservative with the numbers (i.e. 3 instead of 5 missiles in Tel Aviv), the total Mid-range missiles fired on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem so far were 2 on Jerusalem and 3 on Tel Aviv, with one shoot down (If anyone has different, but verifiable, numbers please feel free to correct me). (1,2,3)
Based on these preliminary numbers, the shoot down rate is one in five, in other words a 20% success rate against Mid-range missiles; This is by any of Israel's missile defence systems, and not just Iron dome.
If and when war breaks out between Israel and Iran, Israel will not be facing a short range missile issue from Iran, but rather a mid-range, and long range missiles, including ones from Hezbollah.
We'll probably hear and read more about this once the likely Egyptian cease fire becomes a reality, and the "circle the wagons" mode gives way to post-war objective analysis. If the Israeli military concludes that the defence system(s) are not ready to face the Iranian (longer range) missiles then that should make an imminent attack against Iran less likely, and that should be of interest to many. Keep in mind that at least one new system is reported to become operational no sooner than 2014 (see article below).
Below is a link to an AP article posted by the NY Times about the Iron dome system. It provides good general information and background. Again, military "experts" here must forgive the lack of details, I'm sure the writer didn't intend it for the generals who frequent this site.
References:
(3) see above video (it shows two missiles, one hit, one shoot down).
AMBIGUITY', TRUTH DENYING,LYING FOR CONVENIENCE -ISRAEL'S STOCK IN TRADE-in reply to JF.
ReplyDeleteNobody is happy on the happenings there b/tween ISRAEL and the PALESTINIANS-however we are all perturbed to here some people bragging about the success of the iron dome .seems many people fail to notice the glaring weakness on the part of ISRAEL.
1@-THE ISRAELIS ARE FIGHTING WITH THE WORLD'S WEAKEST ARMY!THE WORLD'S MOST DEPRIVED NATION .
2@-PALESTINIANS HAVE NO DEFENSE INDUSTRY,THEY HAVE NOTHING!SUFFERING A CRUEL SIEGE,THEY DON'T HAVE A PERFECT PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM.
3@- ON ITS PART ISRAEL ENJOYS CUTTING EDGE DEFENSE AND OFFENSIVE TOOLS,ONE OF THE LEADING AND VIBRANT DEFENSE INDUSTRIES IN THE WORLD!.
4@-DOES THE PALESTINIANS HAVE A RADAR SYSTEM? CUT OFF FROM THE WORLD!, THESE PEOPLE HAVE NO ACCESS TO THE ARMS MARKET.
5@-BUT ISRAEL ENJOYS ANOTHER POTENT WEAPON AGAINST THEIR WEAK OPPONENTS,AND THIS IS THE GLOBAL MEDIA.THE MEDIA IS PROGRAMMING THE WORLD TO BELIEVE THAT THE PALESTINIANS ARE TERRORISTS GETTING FROM THE FEROCIOUS IDF WHAT THEY BARGAINED FOR!.
6@-NOW ARE THE CASSAM ROCKETS FIRED FROM THE DUNGEONS OF GAZA WORTHY THE NAME?-THESE FIRE CRACKERS ARE FIFTH RATE ROCKETS ASSEMBLED HASTILY BY DESPERATE YOUTHS . EVEN WITHOUT AN IRON DOME THESE FIREWORKS WOULD MISS THEIR TARGET!.
7@-THE IRON DOME IS BUT A NAME.ISRAEL IS SCORING A FREE PENALTY GOAL HERE YET THE DOME HAS SHOWN EVIDENTLY THAT IT WONT SAVE ANYONE AGAINST RADAR EVADING,RADAR CHEATING SUPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES! .
conclusion-EVEN with these crude weapons on the hands of Palestinians panic reigns supreme in ISRAEL! and as usual ISRAEL wont give any truth figures on casualties maybe to maintain the 'invincible garb ' YET THE DOME HAS ITS MATCH IN TEHRAN !!.
A fair and balanced posting by Jabbar matched by an equally informed and balanced view by BMA. Good to see that this blog is not being turned into a platform for political compaign against or pro IRI.
ReplyDeleteHow come the Iran people do not help the Gaza peoples Are the Iran military cowards
ReplyDeleteThey only talk while they hide in Iran I thought they were brave peoples
Technically, the armament being employed by Palestine from Gaza are not "medium" or "mid-range missiles".
ReplyDeleteThe armament being employed are rocket artillery.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3TOYFfNQoY
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fajr-5
http://thearkenstone.blogspot.se/2011/05/fajr-rocket-mlrs-artillery.html
ReplyDeleteStop it right now, Mark. "Experts" like you are going to hurt the good doctor's fragile feelings.
P.S...In his "gifted" mind, MLRS = IRBM...BAHAHAHAH!!!!!!
@General Yossarian
ReplyDeleteCould you or any other generals you know comment on the possibility that one possible explanation for the intentional non-targeting of the shorter range hamas missiles by the iron dome, is to allow other missile systems (i.e. the arrow) deployed further away to engage them in order to fully test the missile defense systems in advance of an Iran war? Excuse the simplicity of the question and my taking liberty in guessing your rank.
תודה
@reader 7:53
ReplyDeleteThank you, I think.
I actually prefer it when both B.M.A and general Yossarian dislike the inconvenient points I raise.
Not to disagree with a rare complement, but in "fairness" to the Israelis, this critique of Israeli defenses is "fair" but definity not intended to be "balanced", as I didn't include any criticism of the palastinians or Iranians, as I hate to mix apples with oranges.
Look for my "fair and unbalanced" critiques of the Iranian regime (and the palastinians) in future posts.
Iron Dome only acts against rockets that are calculated to hit populated areas. Rockets that are bound to hit empty fields or the sea are not intercepted.
ReplyDelete@Fajr-5: The rockets most possibly are of sudanese origin. Iran has outsourced the production to Sudan from where they are exported to the gaza strip. The Jarmuk factory which was blown up by israelis planes in October was the source.
@docseltsam 3:48
ReplyDeleteInteresting theory about the outsourcing of missile production to Sudan, it certainly makes sense to avoid the Red Sea and Mediterranean intercepts and confiscation of Iranian weapon shipments.
@mark 10:48
ReplyDeleteThanks mark.
Since we can't, for sake of meaningful discussion lump every missile fired from Gaza in the less than 1000 km category, i am open to suggestions as to how we could differentiate the missiles fired on the distant parts of Israel I.e tel aviv from the shorter range ones and still meet the US and international missile nomenclature.
What a primitive propaganda by this blog's sponsors; the missile shield haven't managed to prevent two third of Hamas' rocket to get beyond that shield.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, according to the latest information, the Hamas has downed israeli jetfighter and a drone and also hit several times an israeli warship.
Concentrate on that kind of news, instead of pampering yourselves and the zionists.
To B.M.A., if you pretend to "defend" the IR of Iran, post shorter and clearer statements.
Capitalizing many sentences makes you unclear and present form of your comments serves the WISH of blog's authors. Learn something from Mat (mat says).
A-F
@anon 7:42
ReplyDeletePlease feel free to post links to the footage or news articles reflecting the news you mentioned.
Well, Jabar is obviously a doctor, and not a general. ;)
ReplyDeleteYes but I did attend a conference on diagnosing "Baghdad bob" syndrome, and I did stay at the holiday inn express once.
DeleteThis one-sided slaughter of unarmed civilians is hardly a "sucess" even by cowardly Zionist standards.
ReplyDeleteIt is more of a disgrace that a 500million dollar missile system is used to destroy a single $10,000 Fajr or enhanced GRAD rocket and the whole Zionist economic capital of tel-Aviv comes to a hysterical paralysis.
THIS HAS TO BE THE MOST COWARDLY ZIONIST DISPLAY SO FAR. Iran and Hezbollah have nothing to worry about.
Dr Fazeli,
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, I hardly see a video footage of two rockets being shot-down over Tel-Aviv as a success for Iron Dome, remember that the defense system was Israel's response to 2006 war with Lebanon and the consecutive attacks by Hamas on Israeli Populous areas throughout the years 2000 and 2008 .
Its objective (at the time very loudly publicized by the media) was to provide a sense of security for the inhabitants of the land close to the conflict borders. An objective which clearly have failed as there are almost one million four hundred thousand Israeli's forced to commute and live within 60 seconds of shelters in the past five days. If Hamas can take 50 percent of Israeli population Hostage it’s a political success for it.
The important point here is not really statistical success of the new and upgraded system against its predecessor in 2006 but rather its miserable failure to live up to the propaganda around it .a target missed along with its failure to shoot down almost 2/3 of the short range and home-made rockets it was created to destroy. This figure is in sharp contrast to the Numbers you mention in this blog post , the obvious reason for this mistake was pointed out by other informed commentators :
"The Iron dome was specifically built to counter short range rockets (not medium range Ballistic missiles) ,Hamas have fired almost a thousand rockets in the past five days out of which around 300 were intercepted."
In this sense the Iron dome not only have failed but have become an embarrassment for the administration that have fostered it ,while it could choose the better path to ease the pressure on Gazzans and stop expansion of settlements into west-bank during the past four years.
Leo-Persica
@leo-persica 2:12
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment.
Everything is relative of course.
Most Israelis live outside the reach of the Gaza short range missiles and to them the iron dome represents the first successful defensive system, based on video footage and IDF reports.
Once this war is over, the occasional missile fire won't be hitting tel aviv, so the iron dome doesn't have to be 100% to be deemed effective (even if a few missiles manage to get through to ashkelon or sderot).
I think that there is now a concensus that when it comes to low volume short range missiles, Isreal's iron dome is as good as Israel wished for, again, judging by IDF and media reports.
That, however, does not protect Israel from Iran or Hezbollah, as today's article by haaretz shows, which I invite you to read (link below). Ultimately all conflicts have to resolved through diplomacy; iron dome strengthen Israel's hand just as fajr-5 strengthens Hamas's hand in future negotiations.
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/israel-s-wake-up-call-1.419040
Dr Fazeli,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the swift rely ,I need more time to read the article you Provided .
However ;It is important to make a distinction between rocket artillery and ballistic Missile !they follow different trajectories with different speed(Mark's correction on this case is welcome) so a system like Iron dome is specifically built to counter Gazzaa rockets .when it comes to Hizaballah and Iran the story is completely different we have yet to see if Arrow is as effective as they claim it is I hope such day will never come .
Goodwill begets Goodwill
IRONDOME begets FAJR-5 as you correctly mentioned
thank you again
leo-persica
Anon 8:20 PM
ReplyDelete"Well,Jabbar is obviously a doctor, not a general. ;)"
At least Jabbar is a doctor.What are you then,a general?
3:06 Get this! The funny thing is that Jabbar expresses his faulty knowledge of military matters in his posts time and time again, only to be corrected by several commentators, and those people will continue to point out errors that are being made on the subject of the military, in spite of his attempts at credible/reliable posts regarding the military. And what's even funnier is that he seem to truly believe that you have to be a "General" to know about the military. It's painfully clear that he is desperately reflecting his own lack of knowledge and subsequent failure on others by taunting and taking jabs at them using the term "General".
ReplyDeleteTo sum it up, infact the joke falls on him! :)