Nuclear negotiations between six major powers and Iran
could resume soon, probably in Istanbul, the Washington Post reported today. The
meeting could take place as early as next week, although it's more likely that the two sides agree to meet after the New Year's holiday.
The contours of Western proposal will reportedly be similar to the one offered last May: no new sanctions, a lifting of the ban of sales of aircraft parts to Iran, and help with peaceful nuclear power generation, in return for Iran stopping its production of 20-percent uranium, the removal of its existing 20-percent stockpile and the closure of its underground enrichment plant at Fordo.
The contours of Western proposal will reportedly be similar to the one offered last May: no new sanctions, a lifting of the ban of sales of aircraft parts to Iran, and help with peaceful nuclear power generation, in return for Iran stopping its production of 20-percent uranium, the removal of its existing 20-percent stockpile and the closure of its underground enrichment plant at Fordo.
Iran rejected that proposal in May. The question is why
the West would want to propose something very similar this time. The thinking could be that after seven months of tough economic sanctions including partial oil embargo, Iran might be inclined
to accept the proposal this time around. The West might also have indications that
the Iranians are ready for an agreement now.
Often a great strategy in negotiations is to make a low offer and hope to meet the other party in the middle. I think Washington post’s article is probably referring to what would be on the table at the start of the negotiations, i.e., no new sanctions and lifting of the ban on aircraft parts in return for stopping of 20% uranium production and closure of Ferdo complex. My guess is that the middle ground may be the acceptance of Iran’s right to make low-enrichment uranium and a firm timetable for a conditional and gradual lifting of the sanctions in return for immediate closure of Ferdo and stoppage of 20% enrichment.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWUhdN8GHQ0 --- David Crist on the US vs Iran: A secret war.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-r4aPhVS0U --- IAEA talks with Iran needs a framework.
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