Iran
has informed the IAEA that it planned to speed up its uranium enrichment
program at Natanz by using faster and more advanced centrifuges, Reuters
reported today.
According to the report, Iran informed the IAEA of its intentions last
week. The IAEA document, quoting a communication the agency had received from
Iran, lays out details of the upgrade program.
The Associated Press also reports that the old centrifuges will be
replaced by IR2m machines, which would be able to enrich uranium as much as
three times faster.
If only the EU hadn't stalled with the '03 agreement and the U.S. entered into it and accepted the very accommodating terms of Iran's compromise offers, these centrifuges wouldn't be spinning today. But no, the economic war has been ratcheted against Iran in a transparent attempt to get them to surrender their independence and sovereignty, accept U.S. hegemony in the region, accept the apartheid colonial project in the Levant, and by coercion attempt to bring about regime change in that country.
ReplyDeleteWe read about a sluggish American economy dogging Obama. This while he expends so much international political capital in waging this economic war against Iran. Just think of the potential mega-business opportunities for American businesses in Iran, left unfulfilled by this imposed economic war against Iran, as well as the potential opportunities for improving the lives of ordinary Iranians inside Iran. It really is a shame. And against U.S. interests, as well.
Sanctions reach to its climax from now on it either gets lighter or remain the same as a result if it remains the same Iran will see there is noting to lose by pushing for an actual bomb(no more sanctions ) so I think American should think twice before insisting on continuing sanctions
ReplyDeleteI agree, US+EU have almost exhausted their ammunition. IRI is adjusting fast and time is in their favour. Oil is US+EU economic Achilles heel - they need Iranian oil. Iran is not Cuba or Zimbabwe, it is in possession of a valuable commodity the world cannot do without. The ruling mullas cannot and will not capitulate – it would be suicidal if they do. Get over it and take the Turkey+ Brazil+Iran deal.
Delete"Get over it and take the Turkey+ Brazil+Iran deal"
DeleteThat was for 2010 we are at 2013 now.Iran does not need that deal anymore. The only way out is to accept Iran's right and try to find a win-win solution which is simply giving economic incentive to Iran and accept its nuclear activity in exchange for political commitment to not go nuclear and perhaps some sort tough inspection system
I meant to say US+EU need to get over it!
DeleteThe nuclear program has become an over burdened white elephant for Iran and its economy.Already the PARS platform has sunk in the Persian gulf leaving nearly four years of work in tatters.Meanwhile Qatar with an population of 800 thousand is producing more gas than Iran by pumping the gas as fast as possible from those fields.Leaving a vacuum on their side of the field therefore allowing them to steal what ever is left on the Iranian side.This is caused by the suction of gas from their side leaving greater pressure coming from the Iranian side into the Qatari side bringing with it our gas and oil.
ReplyDeleteEvery month that goes by the regime is costing Iran and Iranians dear in the well being of our country and economy.Until this regime is eliminated by the people this will remain the same (Hamoon Ash Va Hamoon Caseh).
Installation of IR2m centrifuges, reportedly three times faster than the current machines in use at Natanz, is potentially a game changer. It will produce large volume of enriched uranium not needed for Iran’s nuclear power reactors. Not quite certain why the Iranians made this announcement. It runs against their repeated assurances that their nuclear program is peaceful, if so why the rush for so much enriched uranium, for what purpose? And, probably more imporatntly, it runs against a recent and emerging international consensus that Iran was slowing its enrichment program and won’t be able to have enough material for nuclear weapon at least until 2015. And now this announcement!
ReplyDeleteYou are wrong. Improving the efficiency is an industrial problem not a military one, if you can do something with better efficiency (lower price) logic will ask you to do that
DeleteI'd say, provocation. In a time and context where its image as a leader of the axis of resistance has taken a toll following the recent Israeli strikes. The implicit message would be "maybe you can bomb our main ally we swore to protect with impunity, but you still can't do a damn thing about us while we put an even greater emphasis on the project against which you oppose the most virulently."
DeleteThat announcement is completely political, and absolutely not technical. It shows two things :
1-Sanctions are biting as hard as they can do, and the regime know it cannot get much worse, while oil exports are slowly but surely rebounding. Bypassing methods for its financial aspect will come to fruition over the coming years, or at least that's what they want to believe.
2-They clearly feel their credibility as a regional powerhouse has been dealt a severe blow with the Syrian research center destroyed, and their obvious inability to react in kind, while Larijani stated (and then retracted) a few days back that any attack on Syria is an attack on Iran. Just my thoughts.
You haven't answered my questions before declaring that I am wrong! Why the rush now? And especially why now that an international consensus was emerging that Iran was slowing the program and therefore was no threat to develop the bomb at least until 2015? Do you believe that mere considerations for industrial efficiency would trump game-changing political and strategic considerations? I believe not!
DeleteNeedless to say, above reply was intended for anon 8:11 PM.
DeleteI don't see any rush. Perhaps it is just a coincidence, Iran has been working on advanced machines for a while now. As you know, the last 10 years or so were always "special" time (sanctions, threats, negotiations ...) and it will still going to continue for a while so no matter when Iran do something (sending a satellite, testing a missile or in this case installing new machines) it could be interpreted politically motivated while it could be just a natural development.
DeleteLet's accept your argument and say the decision was not meant to be a rush to produce the 5% uranium. The question remains that why does Iran need all the 5% uranium. I assume you would reply the low enriched uranium is needed to produce electricity. In that case, another question arises: how are they going to convert 5% uranium into electricity? I assume by nuclear reactors. But which reactors? Where are those reactors for which Iran needs to produce so much 5% uranium? I don't know of any, do you?
DeleteFirst: Why you assume that Iran can't build new plants? In fact the most difficult part of nuclear electricity is the fuel which Iran Already has. As it is announced Iran already starts to build Darkhovin plants; yet we don't know when it would be ready but it will
DeleteSecond: Why you think Iran has a better option to first build the plants and then make the fuel? We remember in 90s American were completely against even let Iran have something like Bushehr. If we have the fuel technology and actually the fuel itself even if we want to buy the plant technology we will be in a better position. In fact, West have an incentive to give us the technology so we use our fuel instead of storing more fuel (which makes them nervous)
I do not assume that Iran is incapable to build reactors, that's not my assumption. The nuclear plants take more than a decade to build, however. There are no short cuts either! Then why does Iran need to add centrifuges to produce enriched uranium at three times the speed of the current machines?
DeleteI did not also say that Iran is better off to wait until completion of its future reactors to start enriching 5% uranium, not sure why you keep attributing things to me I've never said. I am saying that Iran does not have a single reactor today in need of 5% uranium; even if it wants to build reactors it would take more than a decade to complete; and you don't enrich the uranium in order to store it more than a decade ahead of using it. It doesn't work that way.
Botom line: Iran has proved to the world that it is capable of enriching uranium. It has said many times it does not intend to make the bomb. There is a gathering consensus that Iran was slowing its enrichment program. Then this announcement. Why? Iran has the know-how and can produce enriched uranium for the use in those planned reactors. By increasing the production three fold now, it only sends a wrong message. Unless its plans have changed.
I think this plan takes sometime to get ready (1 year?) and Iran need several 1000 more of these which takes perhaps 4-5 years to be ready for production. If we assume that Iran starts working on Darkhvin in 2008 then it would be ready by 2017-2018 which so Iran has 4-6 years to make fuel for that plant!
DeleteAnother way of thinking is to give Iran a better negotiation position in the short term. In order to make a deal we need to have something. These sort of developments make Iran position stronger (for example, using this technology Iran obtain the breakout capability and west should think twice before waging a war against Iran since using more powerful machines it would much easier to rebuild a secret program afterwards)
Simple to prove that the regimes nuclear program is not peaceful.One sure give away is their development of ballistic missiles.They are not developing them at great cost to Iran to deliver flowers.A one or two ton conventional ballistic payload is good as useless,unless it is armed with an nuclear warhead.
DeleteAnon 11:55,
DeleteThere is no Darkhvin plant under construction, only on the drawing board. Big difference between plans for future development projects and the actual development projects underway in Iran, you should know that.
To anon February 1, 2013 at 5:27 AM,
Deletewhile i totally agree on the military nature of Iran's nuclear program in general, i beg to differ on the strategic value of Iran's thousand-strong ballistic arsenal. Things have changed a lot since its inception, and next-generation Shahab-3s and Sejil-2s have a proven CEP in the league of the hundreds of meters, not a few kilometers like they used to be. if we take their arch-enemy Israel, their potential against high-value industrial and military targets ranging from airbases and their runways, refineries, water treatment and electric plants, or nuclear reactors such as Dimona, is a cause of great concern in Israeli circles, most notably for Uzi Rubin, founder of the Israeli ABM program "Arrow", among other positions... actually one of the principal causes for their already 7+ years of restraint in performing an actual mission against Iran. Modern day ballistic arsenal do retain a lot or interest even when conventionally armed with runway-denial bomblets of thermobaric explosives which Iran is known to have experimented with recently. "City-busters" belong to the era and equipment of Saddam Hussein, whose country's missile program was of strictly no compare to Iran's. In his case, yes, missile other than those mounted with chemical or nuclear warheads will be futile in regards to a battlefield, and only stand as a mass destruction terror weapon, like it was against Tehran during the "war of the cities". Iran wouldn't allocate such a massive budget to produce its most sophisticated MRBMs in the hundreds or close to a thousand, if their sole purpose was to be armed with nuclear warheads. Scattering them would suffice even if they had say a hundred, but its arsenal has been reported by all sources to be MUCH higher than that. And i'm not counting 4 successive generations of Fateh-110, their most advanced and accurate SRBM, directly intended to strike US bases and critical oil and gas installation of their GCC neighbors. Iran's doctrine of becoming an undeniable ballistic power is with reason, not just for posturing and the looks of it. I bet you they will dedicate less than 10% of their current arsenal for unconventional warheads which they will store in the few underground silos they've built so far in limited numbers around Tabriz. There are now laser gyroscope plants built in Iran, courtesy of China's engineering corps. We are in 2013, things started in 1992, do the math, a lot of things can happens with enough billions of petrodollars while 60% of the population suffers misery. A 1 or 2 tons conventional, high-explosive warhead falling 200 meters away from its targeted point will still do a lot of critical damage to a 400 meter-long runway or its installation and planes parked around.
No matter what it costs the country there are certain people who don't give a rats ass about Iran.They only care for some smelly Akhoonds and Islam a non Iranian ideology.
ReplyDeleteIf Iran continues its present path under this regime the country will be lead to the pit of hell as Khomeini once said,"Let Iran burn for Islam".
----- Improving the efficiency is an industrial problem not a military one, if you can do something with better efficiency (lower price) logic will ask you to do that-----
ReplyDeletereplacing functioning machinery with newer machinery ain't likely to result in a lower cost in this instance unless they intend to produce quite a lot of enriched uranium?
and, as there isn't any civilian use for the product, given that they've more than enough in hand for a decade, what's the need for increasing the expense?
you are wrong & wrong.
ReplyDeletefist wrong: They are not replaced with existed machines they are going to be added (expansion)
second: This is for Natanz anf 5% enrichment not for Fardo and 20% and Iran needs a lot of 5% Uranium to produce Electricity.
Just saying wrong & wrong, no matter how loudly shouted, do not make your argument right! All those 5% Uranium: where are they going to use it to produce electricity? Don't you need a reactor to use that 5% Uranium to make electricity? Where are those reactors?
Deletewow is your comment dumb, Anon 10:21......how does having a huge stockpile of enriched uranium generate electricity.....it takes DECADES to build power plants that use uranium for that purpose.... and Iran has a total of one....with more uranium already on hand than it will need.....and the regime has not yet evenbroken ground to build another....
Deleteas well, stalling additional centrifuges doesn't mean that the new centrifuges were magically cost-free, kid. it merely means an additional investment to produce a product without a civilian use for Iran...because there's already all the enriched uranium Iran can use
read my previous comment
DeleteIt is a smart decision of the Islamic Republic, before any negotiations with adversaries, because it can be used as a bargaining chip...
ReplyDeleteA-F
Is there any not-so-smart decisions ever made by the regime? Or do you believe all and every decision made by the regime should be portrayed as smart?
DeleteEverybody can make mistakes, especially under the stress, so Islamic Republic has an excuse for most mistakes...
DeleteA-F
LOL! You were a mistake as well A-F.
DeleteSituation Normal, A F U
ReplyDelete