President-elect Hassan Rouhani scored a big victory
on 14 June election among the Iranian citizens living abroad. Rouhani received
50% of the votes of the expat community. Qalibaf scored a distant second with 11%, Velayati 10% and Jalili only 5%. Nearly 25% of the votes were void. (Mashreq News, 4
July)
It is so interesting to see that the percentage of the votes for each candidate abroad so closely follow the pattern inside Iran. So much has been said of Iranian expats losing touch with the realities in Iran; at least this election does not show that. It seems the group most out of touch with realities on the ground were the supporters of Jalili, inside Iran, and few outside the country!
ReplyDeleteRemember it is expats who participate; Expats are generally lost the touch since we have around 5 million people outside Iran and how many of them vote? while 72% of Iranian inside the country voted
DeleteI guess I need to make my point more clear: The pattern of votes among the expats (who voted of course) is amazingly similar to the voters inside the country. This was not the case in previous elections; and I believe it’s a good sign, showing that unlike popular claims, the expat community is very much tuned to the realities on the ground in Iran, and much more so than the extreme right inside Iran that voted for Jalili.
Delete72% of Iranians didn't vote in Iran.The claimed 72% number of votes is based on the 72 martyrs of imam Hussian.Therefore that figure is highly unlikely.At best in Tehran it was 35%.There is no independent cheques and balances,therefore any figures can be given when counting the votes.
DeleteHe who controlls the ballot box controlls the votes.
Oh yeah There are so many "cheques"; given by the US to idiots like you. I was in Iran for the election and it was crazy busy. Had to stay with all my friends till 2 AM inside a mosque, even after they closed the main entrance at 11:30 so that we could finally vote. The number 72 is perhaps the number of "thorns in your eyes," as we say in Persian.
DeleteAnon 11:02....Your personal diatribes against me proves what I said is true. Because no amount of fallacious boloney from you could hide those facts.Go and troll somewhere else.
DeleteWhat about the 25% ovoid votes? Those who write Banisadr and Bakhtiar and the like. You still think the expats have not lost touch with Iran? Also, you haven't counted those who openly confront those who vote and throw tomatoes a t them. The expats are way out of touch. Most oft heose who have voted are Iranian students who believe in reform and do not follow absurd ideas of toppling the rege. Those who are yet too smart to call Khatami a traitor.
ReplyDeleteAnon 12:06...Those students haven't a choice.Everything in Iran is about getting that blasted stamp on your ID card or passport.The rest is your personal opinion.
DeleteI have live in the US and now I'm in Iran teaching at university level and once I have not had my id checked for voting stamps. These myths are produced by people like you and those expats who throw tomato at voters.
DeleteAnon 10:57...Really? Who are you trying to kid?
DeleteAnon 1:13..You only kid yourself.
DeleteAnon 10:57 PM
DeleteWhy you lying so much? Iranians abroad were offered discounts on airline tickets to Iran.These discounts amounted to over 200 Euro.And to qualify for that you need proof of stamp.
These results are actually more spread out over the candidates than the 2009 election, where Ahmadinejad received very little support from votes cast at polling centers outside the country.
ReplyDeleteI personally had a very pleasant experience voting at a polling station set up here in northern California.
@ 12:06 PM,
ReplyDeleteThe 25% voids could well be for other people, like Rafsanjani, as a protest vote; or like for anyone else for same reason. But the majority voted for Rouhani, by large margin. This is not a sign of being out of touch! The supporters of Jalili, inside Iran (and a few abroad) were the ones out of touch with realities on the ground inside the country, living in a parallel universe, believing until the end that their candidate will win (if you live in the U.S., they could remind you of poor Romney supporters!). In the era of information technology, we need to be careful evaluating different segments of the population solely on geographical factors (inside or outside the country).
But still many who did not participate were out of touch.
Delete“But still,” used as a 'preface,' does not make your statement correct!
DeleteHope you got the jest of my argument: for the past four years, some commentators, especially the ones with sympathy to the extreme right in Iran, thought that the expat community, because of its support of the Green Movement, were outside the mainstream of the Iranian politics and out of touch with realties of Iran. The recent election proved that those very commentators were the ones who were actually out of touch, even if they lived inside the country. I do realize that it’s difficult to admit mistakes, but they better start admitting their mistakes (self delusion in some cases) and start commenting on developments in the real Iran, not the one they would have preferred to exist. That would be a welcome change, at least here on this blog!
I understand your point and I actually voted for Rouhani in US but my point is to emphasis that most people voted or were actively urging others to do so were students; most of the so called opposition did not vote and are out of touch as I claimed (still I see some of them make fun of us who vote for Rouhani and perhaps never understand anything about Iran's politics)
DeleteSeven million Iranians escaped the occupying regime and they have the nerve to ask Iranians to vote for a bunch of charlatans? Rouhani is that same person who said during the riots of 2003 that the students should be put down because they are a threat to the revolution.And now they call him a "liberal" or a "reformist".
DeleteSome expat Iranians did vote for these people. That's because they travel back and forth to Iran.But there are millions of expats that didn't "vote" for these leaches.
And the "so called opposition" is that manufactured one by the IRI intelligence service.Iran's politics is about zoor and chomagh and locking up or shooting real opposition against the regime.
@Uskowi
DeleteThanks for your response. I agree. Geographical divisions between inside and outside are tenuous. But, I don't necessarily agree that Jalili's followers were as delusional as Romney's. I had the chance to talk to them on the streets here and there in Tehran and most of them knew he wouldn't win. Even a large sector of the right wing in Iran asked him to stop running in favor of ghalibaf. I think running for Jalili wasn't so fruitful as it lessened the credibility of his work with 5+1 showing that Iranian do not necessarily agree with a full force confrontational Iran. But from what I can sense in the air here in Tehran and among my middle class friends, so a very limited sector of the society, everyone was happy that Rouhani in responding to France vingt quatre said that the days when Iran would stop the enrichment of uranium is passed.
@11:26 PM,
DeleteRouhani’s victory came as complete surprise to many Iran experts inside and outside the country. Dr. Zibaghlam was one of the few political observers inside the country that had predicted a Rouhani victory even in the first round. This lowly blogger outside the country had also supported and predicated Rouhani’s victory.
But the shared wisdom, both inside and outside, was that the principlists would field a unity candidate and will win the election for Qalibaf or Velayati. When the unity did not happen, Jalili registered at the last minute as a candidate of Ahmadinejad’s camp, who was thought to be able to get the support from the supreme leader and Ayatollah Mesbah. No one among the principlists and Iranian officialdom, however, thought Rouhani could win, especially after the minister of intelligence had pressured the Guardian Council to reject Rafsanjani’s candidacy. Their collective supporters (and you are right, not just Jalili’s) were shocked to see Rouhani win and win so convincingly and easily; not unlike Romney supporters.
Now the election is over and doesn’t matter who predicted what before it. The president-elect has enormous challenges ahead of him to bring back normalcy to the country’s economy and its relations with the West, two different by interlinked issues. His new administration can and should provide an opportunity for the supreme leader and the U.S. president to start anew and begin a long process of serious negotiations to normalize relations between their countries. This window of opportunity is not wide open, serious negotiations need to begin after Rouhani’s government is fully in place, sometime in late September.
No one's talking about predictions such as Zibakalam (I believe that's who you mean, unless there is a Zibaghlam that I am totally unaware of). I am sure you checked www.ipos.me during the presidential campaigns. There were quite a few polling website who offered quite accurate predictions based on scientific methods. A few days before the election they wrote "Rouhani will win if one round; if goes to second round it is between Rouhani and Ghalibaf."
DeleteAny decent person will probably agree with you on using Rouhani's administration as a window of opportunity insofar as they believe the US is looking to settle the issue with Iran. Since I don't believe that the US is looking to negotiate, I don't believe Rouhani or any other government will bring any tactile change.
Yes, of course, I meant Dr. Zibakalam. Sorry for the mistake and thanks for the correction.
DeleteFor you, predicting the results of the election might not have been important. But Iran's principlists and the House of Leadership needed generally accurate estimates to form their electoral policies. When they expected a principlist win, but at the end Qalibaf could only finish a very distant second, and all the votes of priciplists combined came less that those cast for Rouhani, it became clear that they misjudged the public sentiments, probably because they were believing what they were preaching, that the population was solidly supporting them.
Now, when it comes to normalization of relations with the U.S., one must not assume that it would be impossible to strike a comprehensive deal; and Rouhani should be all the support and the chance it needs from the supreme leader to try to strike such a deal. Politics is the art of possible, and something that was impossible even last year, might be possible now, and it should be tried, especially by a new president and his new team.
On the U.S. side, as well, the new team of Obama/Kerry/Hagel is probably the best team that Iran has ever faced, and if there is a chance for an agreement, it is now with this team. The new foreign policy team here understands that the outstanding issues could only be solved within the framework of a comprehensive understanding between the two sides on bilateral and regional issues. Ironically, the positions of the U.S. and Iran on some of the major regional issues are so close to each other; from supporting Karzai in Afghanistan to Malaki in Iraq. The new foreign policy team here is also not after regime change, and that's the vital element that can pave the road for a comprehensive agreement between the two sides.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuq_bDIa1Ws --- Prince Reza Pahlavi interview on Iran election.
ReplyDeleteHere we go! Anon 8:36: a good example of out of touch expats. If Iranian students didn't ignite the motor of voting most of you guys would've not voted at best, or would've thrown tomatoes at them under the backward "shir o khorshid" flag.
ReplyDeleteThe Shir o Khorshid flag is the true flag of Iran.Not that ludicrous khomeini invented symbol of four bannanas and a cucumber.The rest of your nonsense is just pure propaganda.
DeleteThe idea of a "true flag" shows how ignorant you are. What is a true flag? Any flag is designed by a dynasty and there is no such thing as a true flag. Those who take refuge in the nostalgia of an expired flag like the Pahlavi one are quite out of touch with reality.
DeleteAnon 1:19
DeleteYou are so ignorant and fanatical that it has distorted your thought processes.The Shir o Khorshid flag predates Pahlavi era for hundreds of years.The Shir o Khorshid flag is the true flag of Iran and will return to its rightful owner again.You seem to be the one who chooses to be out of touch with reality.Go and educate yourself about the Iranian Shir o Khorshid flag you poor soul.
In reply to Anon 1:19 AM
Delete"What is a true flag?"
The true flag is the tri colours with LION & SUN !
I have at least looked up the Iran Flag entry on Wikipedia, unlike you who have just listened to Shahram Homayoun and other royalist idiots. "The idea of a true flag" I said, and it seems that talking about "ideas" is too big for your mental faculty. There is no such thing of a true flag at all, no matter how early in history you trace its origins to. Flags and emblems are nothing but fabrications. Shir o Khorshid is nothing but a sign made up probably as late as the time of the Afshar dynasty. Do you understand? And yet, you have the audacity to ask others to educate themselves? You have very little clue what education is. For now your beloved Shir o Khorshid is gone, and it seems it is for good! So put it in "ab-e yakh!" LOL!
DeleteAnon 5:15..You can look up what you like.The fact remains that the true flag of Iran is and always will be Shir o Khorshid.It has nothing to do with royalists or republicans just Iran.The four bannanas and cucumber symbol represents the fascist Islamic regime and nothing else.The swastika didn't represent Germany but the NAZI party.The red star didn't represent Russia but the communist party and the same goes for that crab. Your blind hatred of Iran and Iranian is making it clear as day light.Boro zireh"ab-e yakh" khayli mozdori!
Delete"The fact remains that the true flag . . ." Oh man! You ARE really an idiot, not just pretending.
DeleteAnyways, "chon ghafieh tang aayad . . . sha'er be jafang aayad" I'll go "zireh ab-e yakh" as you suggested and then will wipe my bottom with a piece of cloth with the Pahlavi's emblem on it. How's that? LOL!
You just proved how ignorant you are by calling Shir o Khorshid "the Pahlavi emblem".And you have the nerve to call me an "idiot".
DeleteAnon 12:40 I support Anon 8:01 on this.The shir-o-khorshid has nothing to do with Pahlavi royal family.What he said is true comparing the present emblem with the nazi one.Your personal attacks on the anon only highlights your frustrations. I would also advice you to show some manners towards posters on Uskowi.
DeleteWho said I was conflating the two. I wrote earlier that Shir o Khorshid, perhaps, dates back to the Afshar dynasty. This shows that YOU are an idiot, not mine. I just said I'll wipe my bottom with a kleenex with Pahlavi emblem on it. Why would I insult the Shir o Khorshid. I have no beefs with the Afsharids. It is the CIA midget Shah-e farari that I was insulting, but you guys are a bit too sharp apparently to follow! LOL! Here it is: (see these things are easy, you just have to google them smarta--! You are backward royalists and yet don't know that the Pahlavis did have an emblem/coat of arms?)
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Imperial_Coat_of_Arms_of_Iran.svg
Anon 7:35
DeleteAnon 1:19 AM Quote,"of an expired flag like the Pahlavi one"
Anon 11:11 AM Quote,"under the backward shir o khorshid flag"
Did you not quote these idiotic words by saying that you would wipe your bottom with the cloth of the Pahlavi emblem on it,thinking that the Shir o Khorshid was the Pahlavi emblem? Don't try to twist things around like a typical cyber mozdor because we are not as ignorant as some of you lot.And besides your daft claim that the Shir o Khorshid is "backward" shows what a primitive and barbarous regime you support with its emblem of Kharchang Khoon.
Anon 8:36 AM....Forget this argument with this cyber basij.The cyber idiot is only loyal to an ideology occupying the country.Therefore he is bound to idolize that filthy anti Iranian emblem stuck like a NANG onto our colours.
Deletethe 11:11 AM quote was the initial comment. I was later explaining that what I meant was the Pahlavi flag. Also, if you know what is called vernacular, in everyday speaking, people do call that Parcham-e shir-o khordshid. So there you are: no twisting. It is you who is trying to pick up on something irrelevant to deflect the entire discussion of those backward royalists who bow in front of the picture of a CIA midget, and yet throw tomatoes at those who vote to elect their own president. Whether it makes you happy or not, whether you call everyone who supports the Islamic Republic a cyber mozdoor or not, no one gives a damn. The country is blooming, and it is doing so under the Islamic Republic, not under your joker of a crown prince or any other idiot like him. So there! Suck it up buddy, it is not gonna change. You can go commiserate with LA TVs.
DeleteAnon 5:54...The only thing "blooming" is the amount of political executions, increasing theft of national wealth by the gangster IRGC and their chums,followed by imprisonment,rapes and torture.All this while the Iranian worker goes without pay for over nine months at a time or more.As well as ordinary Iranian unable to put bread on its table.And then you ramble on about the "crown prince" and "royalists".People like you seem to hold some type of inferiority complex towards the institution of monarchy and its place in Iran's long history.Well I got news for you pal no one gives a god damn about your singular opinions.Remember this and remember this well basij boy,the islamic "republic" of terrorists and bandits is but a blimp in Iran's long history. And that despite the diatribes and personal attacks dopey toadys like yourself use against posters.You are already sucking it up "buddy" and sucking it up badly at that.
Delete