“The Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Intelligence and Security and other Iranian bodies have attempted to (work with Pakistan) to release the abducted frontier guards. We hope that the information disseminated on the death of one of them is untrue, but if this information is confirmed, we will be forced to resort to other measures to protect our borders,” Rahmani Fazli said. (IRIB, 26 March)
The tone of Rahmani Fazeli’s demand suggests that Iran might be getting ready to intervene militarily to free the guards. If such decision is made politically, and if Iran has good intelligence on the whereabouts of the detained guards, it will be expected that the IRGC Special Forces, the Saberin, supported by elements from other military units, to enter the Pakistani Baluchistan on the search and rescue mission.
However such intervention will complicate Iran-Pakistan’s relations, especially with the Pakistani military and the ISI who are in charge of Baluchistan’s security.
File photo: Iranian Frontier Guard at Pakistani Border in Baluchistan (IRNA)
16 comments:
Iran has been very patient with the failed Pakistani state that is fanning Wahhabi terror against the whole region and Russia and India as well. It is time to act. The Saudi sponsors of Pakistan's military and the terror master ISI will welcome a war between Iran and Pakistan as it suits their cowardly purpose, so it is best to avoid military action directly, however, Pakistan is a very poor, destabilized and sectarian imploding state and that process can be accelerated by supporting anti-Pakistan Afghans, Indians and the Shia and other ethnic groups fighting the Punjabi dominated Paki army which is at war with its own people in the Baluch, Pashtun and Sind provinces. Pakistan is literally bankrupt (with foreign exchange reserves of less than $7 billion or 2 weeks of imports) and weak state that is being propped up by US, Saudi and Khaleeji money and will collapse if more financial, political and military pressure is brought to bear on it. The first logical thing Iran needs to do is completely seal the border and stop all transit of goods and people (even though some elements of mullahs and IRGC are involved in lucrative smuggling at both Baluch and Kurdih areas) and secondly, start funding the Shia groups in Pakistan who are being massacred by the Wahhabi terror groups for the past decade.
Human life or even a semblance of humanity has no value in violent Pakistan where any general, terrorist and assassin can bought for a few dollars. Iran must coordinate its actions with India, Afghanistan, Russia and even China, because they all face the same ISI sponsored Wahhabi terror threat. The ultimate aim of Iran and all the major regional players should be to tie up the corrupt Pakistan army and ISI on various fronts and simply deplete it. Pakistan is poorer than Somalia and sustained financial pressure will simply destroy it. Iran needs to be firm and patient and read the Paki military and the Saudi lapdog Nawaz Sharif, the riot act. Iran has been around for 3,000 years and the artificial state of Pakistan like its religious based Zionist cousin is only 65 years old. It will not last in the future anyway as 200 million starving people will eventually eat each other. Iran just needs to mine, fortify and hermetically seal the border, not a rat should get through. The mullahs who brag so much about one million Baseej, should put their money where their big mouth is and deploy all possible manpower in Sistan and Khorasan. The Birjand and Zahedan airbases must get more aircraft and helicopters. It will take time but has to be done to save Iran from relentless Paki terror.
I agree in general with this assesment. There was a comment from @Uskowi about lack of investment and opportunities for baluchis. However, I don't buy that. The same was applied to kurds who in Shah's time were educated with schools and hospital. All the kurds did were killing Iranians and going to Sweden asking for asylum!. You can argue about deprived regions for South of Italy, northern Ireland, Bronx and any ineer city ghettos. The solution is not to pump money. That is exactly what happens in corrupt Pakistan. All the aids goes to chieftains. There is no solution except lrarning from Israelis who face similar incursions. Seal the border and put high walls if you have to. Knock the bases with missiles and drones.
Money is not the issue, the real issue in both Baluchistan and previously in Kurdistan was foreign interference. I have seen Sistan both before and after the revolution. In the 1970's Sistan and the city of Zahedan was a dirt poor city with barely any roads, electricity or hospitals. Today, they have it all and even the generations of Sistanis after 1979 are being educated, even though the Baluch feudal and tribal Sunni culture rejects education and modernization. Iran has spent substantial money in Sistan and result is quite obvious in Zahedan and other towns that are a million times better than the stone age Baluchis in Pakistan whose only asset, the natural gas from the Sui and Bugti fields is being plundered by the Punjabis who are changing the demographics with massive influx from gossly over-populated Punjab. In Iran's case, the the vast majority of Baluch Sistanis are well integrated and the new trade route with India via Chah Bahar will help with economic development and employment. But before any of that can happen, the border has to be SECURED, just like Kurdistan was with massive IRGC and Artesh garrisoning, mostly accidental due to the idiot Saddam's war on fought from Kurdistan, Ilam to Khuzestan so the military had to be deployed on that border. Today, Sanandaj, a city of around half a million and multi-ethnic is a peaceful modern city and the majority of Kurds are well off and don't want to be part of failed Iraq or a deteriorating Turkish state.
In the 1970's both Sistan and Paki controlled Baluchistan faced similar lawlessness, the culprits then were the Iraqis and USSR who were arming the major tribes like Bugtis, Marri,Bizenjos etc, but the Shah acted decisively and dispatched a Special Forces brigade and AH-1J Cobras and CH-47 Chinooks into Paki Baluchistan and helped quell the insuurection. The mullahs really need to take this situation seriously as the most vile enemies of Iran like the Saudis, Bahrainis and others like the Zionists are training terrorists at Nushki, Chaman and Quetta in large camps with modern weapons provided by the ISI and Paki military. Iran has to beef-up security in the region and making a cost high for the failed Paki state. Pakistan is like a begging bowl and if Iran seals the border the Saudis and the rest of the Wahhabi pimps in the Persian Gulf would have to keep on pumping billions into a 200 million dirt poor state that is like a vaccum cleaner charity case and will bankrupt them. The little pimp of Bahrain, Salman al Khalifa was in Islamabad and paid the Paki military $500 million for sending 10,000 mercenaries for repression Bahrain, then the Saudi pimp, the crown prince's visited Islamabad in February, Pakistan received Rs. 147 billion (US $1.5 billion) in financial assistance to help shore up Saudi military and send 20,000 terrorists to Syria.
So the real problem is the nature of the corrupt Pakistani state and its puppet military that has fallen under the control of Wahhabis. The ISI is the active promoter of Takfiri hate in the region and the prime target is Iran. That is reason Iran simply can not let its guard down on the terror infested eastern flank. It has to build fortifications, plant mines and sensors and built an electrified wall all along the 909 kms of border. Morocco which has far less money and resources than Iran did a successful border fortification in the Western Sahara to keep POLISARIO out, so why Iran with almost four times the economy if Morocco can't built sold fortifications? India has done the same all along its 2900 kms border with terror central Pakistan from Kashmir to Gujarat state.
The sealing of Pakistani border should be Iran's NUMBER ONE PRIORITY. The mullahs need to grow a pair.
Anonymous March 26, 2014 at 4:40 PM
Or you could grant them autonomous status and eventually let them cede from Iran. The Baluchis aren't Persian you know. They are ethnically and lingisticually more closely related to the Urdu and Pastu people in Pakistan. Just learn to accept the fact a clear majority of the Baluchis don't want to belong to the central government in Tehran (which by the way is a metropolitan city which is culturally worlds apart from any city in Baluchestan). The matters have gone so far that most Baluchis have begun to sympathize with militant groups such as Jundullah and Jaish-Ul-Adl. After having come to the conclusion that armed struggle will tire and wear down the central dictatorship tarnishing it's prestige to the breaking point whereby they will begin to let go off Blauchi lands which they have desperately been holding on to with their vicious claws.
The poorly equipped rag-tag soldiers of this carcass Akhoondi regime gets slapped & beaten every so often. Makes one think of the good old days when we smashed Akhoond's poor so called Sepahe-e-cholaghah in Amaliyat-e Forough-e Javidan, wallahi we just bulldozed over the poor bastards all the way to Kermanshah 150km into Iran!!! Sweet memories for the Mujahed!!!
Iran can demand anything that it wants to demand and Iran can do nothing much when the Pakistanis ignore the demands.
Pakistan is militarily stronger than Iran and not any more reluctant to kill the weak than is Iran.
Anon 7:55PM
Iran should construct defenses similar to the ones that were laid around Basra. Those were built very intricately and proved to be a nightmare for the invading Basijis who, in their first invasion of Iraqi soil back in 1982, literally ran into them blind resulting in a tremendous disaster and again in 1984 and 1987 respectively. I'm talking man-made lakes with rows upon rows of barbed wire and the rest of the package. Defenses of such magnitude will surely discourage any intrusion from Pakistan.
You do know that it was the Iranian army's strategy to allow the MEK to march into Iran without resistance so that the MEK wouldn't benefit from Iraq's air force, after which Operation Mersad completely annihilated MEK, right? It was such a harsh defeat for the MEK that Rajavi fled with his tail between his legs.
Any so-called Iranian who thinks of the breakup of Iran is a matter of time should be considered a traitor to Iran zamin. It won't be happening anytime soon,so get it out of your heads.
Have you any proof that Pakistan is militarily stronger than Iran?
I agree, there is less than snowballs chance in hell of Iran breaking-up, if anything the Baluch on the Paki side want to join Iran. It was Akbar Bugti who sought sanctuary in Iran before a US drone took him out near Ziarat on the Paki side. The Sistanis are well integrated in Iran and all these irritating pin-prick terror strikes have nothing to do with Iranian politics but with the Saudi, Paki and Zionist terror agenda against Iran for various geo-strategic reasons. Iran needs to pursue a well-coordinated border security and anti-terror campaign on its eastern borders. This is just a nuisance and poses no real threat to Iranian territorial integrity.
Nader UskowiMarch 28, 2014 at 1:15 PM
The levels of self delusion demonstrated in some of these comments are amazing; like comparing Baluchistan to South Italy, Northern Ireland, or Bronx! Or saying that lack of development in Baluchistan is not one of the causes of public discontent that could eventually lead to resurrection. Or saying the opposition in Baluchistan and similar regions is solely the work of foreign powers.
The economic situation in Baluchistan, the unemployment and underemployment, dire poverty, lack of opportunity and hope, is beyond belief in the 21st century. The commentator comparing the situation with South of Italy or the Bronx or Northern Ireland either has not visited/lacks knowledge of Baluchistan, or has not visited those European and American regions, or both!
And of course if you look at more advanced regions of the country, you will not witness the amount of discontent as in Baluchistan. Is this that difficult to understand?
On foreign powers: Why the powers could only affect regions like Baluchistan? Even if the assessment of foreign link is correct, it begs the question of why? Isn't it that there is a significant amount of discontent in such regions, including lack of economic opportunities and existence of discrimination by the central government based on the population's ethnicity and religion, that paves the way for influence by foreigners? Why the powers could not have same influence in more affluent regions of the country?
The answer to problems will not come from law enforcement efforts alone; Tehran needs to expand economic opportunities and religious and ethnic equality in Baluchistan and similar regions.
Have you any proof that Pakistan is militarily stronger than Iran?
start by comparing their air forces......... Pakistan's is much larger, much more advanced and in far better repair.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=Iran&country2=Pakistan&Submit=Compare+Countries
The only advantage Pakistan has is its 58 or so F-16A/B Block 15 fighters (tighly controlled by the US), however, the rest of the airforce is just 100 plus 50 year old ex-Australian Mirage 3 and the Chinese junk JF-17 which is an upgraded Chinese Fattan A-5 (The Nanchang Q-5 ) from 1950's which even PLAF retired as it was even a bigger deathtrap than the Chengdu F-7 Airguard that IRIAF has modified.
So even today with its depleted inventory, the IRIAF with 58 F-14A and 40 MIG 29, 36 SU-24 long range strike aircraft and over 75 upgraded F4E and over 100 variants of the venerable F5E would give the PAF a run for the money. Iranian pilots have had over 8 years of non-stop combat experience which they have passed on to the current generation of IRIAF top-guns. The 13 or so IRGCAF SU-25 Frogfoots would be ideal tank busters in the open Sistan/Baluchistan border terrain.
PAF performance against Indian IAF has been very poor and the Indians dominated the Pakistani skies in all their wars. Pakistan simply does not have the money or cohesion to get into a shooting war with Iran with India and Afghanistan breathing down its neck. Over 75% of the Pakistani military is involved in fighting its own people from Baluchistan, Waziristan, FATA to Sind provinces. Another problem for imploding Pakistan is that 25% or more of its population is Shia who would gladly throw their lot in with Iran causing complete meltdown. So let's be realistic about the failed Pakistani state and its military capabilities or lack of.
Anon 5:59
You have painted an incorrect picture of the PAF. You should check the facts regarding PAF assets. A quick search on Google would suffice to clear up the distortion.
"Iranian pilots have had over 8 years of non-stop combat experience "
And this is how those heroes were thanked....Iranian fighter pilot Yadollah Sharifirad who reached the status of ace since he is credited with five confirmed shot downs. He is the most successfull F-5 fighter pilot anywhere in the world. How can Iranian air force pilots find the motivation to fight for this regime when they get treated like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nJaMcOHcS4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WNLCs-pne8
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