The
International Monetary Fund today released its report on the recent economic
conditions in Iran.
“Macroeconomic
performance worsened markedly following the implementation of the subsidy
reform in late 2010 and the intensification of sanctions in 2012.
“Since
the Presidential election in mid-2013, there have been some signs of
stability,” the report said.
Following
are the report’s highlights:
- The economy contracted by 5.8 percent in 2012/13 (Iranian calendar year 1391). In 2013/14, it is estimated that the economy contracted by 1.7 percent. The economic activity, however, would begin to stabilize in 2014/15, with the GDP projected to grow 1-2 percent. However, the current outlook remains uncertain and subject to downside risks.
- The 12-month inflation rose from about 12 percent in late 2010 to around 45 percent in July 2013. But after the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) tightened credit to the banking system, putting a lid on money growth, inflation began to decline and stood at 29 percent in January 2014, with the estimated inflation rate at the end of 2013/14 period (March 2014) standing at 22 percent.
- Unemployment was at 12.2 percent in 2011/12 and 2012/13, but it is estimated that it rose to 12.9 percent in 2013/14.
- Narrow money (M1) declined from $29.1 billion in 2012/13 to an estimated $20.5 billion in 2013/14. Broad money (M2) declined from $30.6 billion to $24.9 billion in the same periods.
- Gross official reserves of CBI rose from $104.4 billion in 2012/13 to an estimated $107.7 billion in 2013/14.
- Crude oil exports decreased from 2.5 million bpd in 2011 to about 1 million bpd in 2013.
To read
the entire IMF report, please click here.
18 comments:
The report is basically sound and it is a pity that the mullahs have made such a mess of Iran with ineptitude and massive corruption. Iran has the highest youth brain drain in the world as real unemployment is pushing closer to 50% if the underground casual "jobs" are included.
With sanctions tightening on Russia, one of Iran's major trading partner the situation will only get worse. Imagine a large nation of 78 million industrious people sitting on the world's prime energy and geo-strategic real estate stuck with a declining economy since 1979 and total socio-economic rot. Something sure stinks in Iran.
The Akhoonds are the reason for the halt in Iran's progression. A terrible curse fell upon our country 35 years ago...
All those who keep the cogs turning in this tinpot dictatorship are 'Yek mosht nafam', from top to bottom and from left to right.
Wow, their unemployment is about as bad as California's from 2010-2012 (not including Californians that had given up seeking employment).
Ahmadinejad/Khamenei's decision on the nuclear program has been an expensive and utter disaster.
It is global government practice to understate the real unemployment statistics by at least half. The US Department of Labor stats are the most unreliable as they are based on the flawed methodology of making 2000 random phone calls. You are right that does not include the disenchanted and discouraged workers who have given up, students, part-time casuals, illegal immigrants (Hispanics in US, Afghans and Pakistanis in Iran) people in between jobs etc. On a recent trip to both Iran and Spain I anecdotally estimated REAL UNEMPLOYMENT well over 50% as many of the marginalized job seekers have simply disappeared from the official statistics which are lies anyway. In Madrid and Barcelona every able bodied young person wanted to immigrate anywhere, legally of illegally. The same sad story for Iran which unfortunately is worse due to rampant corruption and sanctions. Iran is even barred from the global western SWIFT banking system so the people can't even get money from abroad to support their relatives easily. Shortages of everything from medicines to meat.
as i said before 2012/13 Iran economy suffered a schockbecause of oiol Embargo and sanctions
but after one or two year , it will Digest this shock and go back to growth path.
this time less dependendt form crude oil Export.
everything does not kill me, makes me stronger
not expensiv at all
Iran oil is alwas there and can be sold later
but if Iran lose the nukw, it will never be back
I( know from my time of Student in europe , that you donot Need Swift to Transfer Money from and to the Iran.
There are enough Money Trader in Euroope , who Change Rial against $
The challenge Rouhani administration is facing is implementing the second phase of subsidy reform while the country still suffers from a high inflation. Of course it's understandable why the government wants to implement the reform in a serious and real manner. It cannot afford to pay for those subsidies forever. But the timing is very delicate. The inflation rate will certainly go up significantly when the second phase of subsidy reform is implemented.
On unemployment, the real problem is not limited to that rate, but two other factors as well: Unemployment among the youths is much higher and there is a high rate of underemployment (when there is disconnect between education level and work performed). Iran's minister of economy, in his address to Assembly of Experts last month, identified the unemployment and underemployment among the youths as serious issue for the future of the country. I do agree with him.
Anons 8:45 PM and 9:39 PM
Well said !
Anon 12:21 PM,
The subject of this post is not the Iraqi economy. You can take your racist ideas to blogs that would thrive on these sort of nonsense.
only an idiot takes seriously that whatever doesn't kill one makes one stronger. .... try having your legs blown off and see how much stronger you are.
Iranians are so jealous of Iraq.
Actually the decision to go Nuclear was before the revolution when the Americans convinced the Shah that Iran had no options but to go Nuclear because when the oil ran out Iran would have no other way to produce electricity. Unlike this regime who state its purely civilian, the Shah would actually go on televised interviews and declare his intentions were for weapons as well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiUQO7wgcyw
Even the Israelis encouraged it as this article from the Times of Israel elucidates:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/a-generation-ago-israelis-found-paradise-in-iran/
And that's why the west helped in overthrowing the Shah.
Yes you are right. Iranians are very "jealous" of Iraqis blowing themselves up.
The IMF seems to blame it on Sanctions
Iran economy stabilizing, to soar if deal reached: IMF
http://news.yahoo.com/iran-economy-stabilizing-soar-deal-reached-imf-181029752.html;_ylt=AphPmYHf1ZbOSyflrExfiyPQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBsOXVyY2hzBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM3BHNlYwNzcg--
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