Reuters quoting Western officials reported today
that during their meeting in May with P5+1 in Vienna, Iranian negotiators
demanded that Iran be allowed to produce all enriched uranium it would need to
fuel the existing Bushehr nuclear power reactor, whose fuel is being provided
by Russia. Hence, the Iranians wanted to keep all their current centrifuges,
some 10,000 in operation, and in addition add tens of thousands more centrifuges
to be able to fuel the reactor.
The West considers operating more than few
thousands centrifuges would give Iran breakout capability in short order. With
50,000-100,000 centrifuges in operation, Iran could produce enough enriched
uranium for a nuclear weapon in matter of weeks if it so decides.
The next meeting between Iran and P5+1 is scheduled for mid-June. The difference between the numbers of centrifuges Iran wants and what the West is ready to accept is so great that agreeing to cut the difference in half might not work here, hence the failure of the May meeting. The optimistic assessments for the talks coming out of Tehran in the past few days, however, might indicate that the Iranians are ready to offer new set of proposals to cut the difference significantly.
The next meeting between Iran and P5+1 is scheduled for mid-June. The difference between the numbers of centrifuges Iran wants and what the West is ready to accept is so great that agreeing to cut the difference in half might not work here, hence the failure of the May meeting. The optimistic assessments for the talks coming out of Tehran in the past few days, however, might indicate that the Iranians are ready to offer new set of proposals to cut the difference significantly.
9 comments:
more centrifuges mean more sanctions.
Iran gets to choose whether it wants to keep spinning or seek peace.
And so Iran plays it's strongest card.
Really the next offer should be to maintain current stock and sell the reactor spent fuel back to u.s. at a premium price.
All of this in exchange for full lifting of the sanctions of course :)
Iranians have always been good negotiators...the problem is that they get greedy and all of a sudden they run into a bush type president who might call their bluff. I really hope they don't get greedy this time. Because the next u.s. president won't be so accommodating.
US can't and won't attack . Iran will not dismantle any centrifuge (both Khamneie and Rouhani has indicated many times). So there are two possible outcomes: 1- US will accept the current number of centrifuges and lift the sanctions 2- US can't accept this and continue the sanctions in that case Iran has no reason to not expand its program and make new realities on the ground,
the US can and will, with ease and with the approval of the citizens of the country. the iranian regime is widely loathed in the US....... or they simply can let the Israelis do it.
Iranians should have no illusions. Iran is quite weak in reality, despite all the grandiose oratory. it's never a good idea to believe the bullsh1t
I know US as well as you. People are tired of war and there would be no support for even a one time air attack (ground base or long war is basically a no show and a suicide for US economy )
No, you don't know the US well. the people of the US are entirely tired of war, but if the talks fail and the Iranians continue with their nuclear weapons development program, the people will cheer an attack upon the development sites
"or they simply can let the Israelis do it." ==> I'd rather read "let Bibi do the barking without walking the walk, as he has done for the past 5 years." Iran is so weak the US keeps on willing to reach a negotiated solution instead of "simply wiping it out" and keeps the IDF at bay despite its leaders saber rattling. Man US lawmakers must be masochistic. And their Israeli colleagues must be pathological liars.
Anyway, attack will be useless and can't damage Iran program. Iran can sunk US ship in Persian gulf at the other hand.
attack will be useless----
tell it to Saddam
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