A Long Period of JPOA Forever!
Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani said in Tehran on Wednesday that tough path remains
ahead in nuclear negotiations. “The enemies of the nation cannot be trusted,”
Rouhani said. But he added that in the “tough and highly windy road” ahead,
Iran will double its efforts to achieve its goals. He did not elaborate on
those goals. (Fars News Agency, 11 December)
The Iranians seem to want continue negotiating with the “enemies of the nation” under a series of interim agreements or JPOAs. P5+1 also seem to prefer negotiations to the collapse of the talks, even though they produce only extensions of the interim agreement. We might be facing a long period of JPOA Forever!
The Iranians seem to want continue negotiating with the “enemies of the nation” under a series of interim agreements or JPOAs. P5+1 also seem to prefer negotiations to the collapse of the talks, even though they produce only extensions of the interim agreement. We might be facing a long period of JPOA Forever!
Thats very unlikely,we saw the west play that same game before with the temporary suspension that the west "interpreted" as a permanent halt, a freeze of irans nuclear program in return for a freeze of sanctions,iran wouldnt play that game then with its far more limited program so it sure as hell wont do it now with its much larger program.The real problem here is that whoever quits first will be blamed internationally for the failure of the negotiations,I suspect that as much as the prospect of success is what is keeping things going,however I do not see the hardliners on both sides tolerating the status quo for much longer,I think that if we dont get a deal this time round then there is no deal to be had
ReplyDeleteUnder JPOA, Iranian funds abroad are being unfrozen, at a rate of $700 million a month. Iran also gets limited sanctions relief on oil exports, petrochemical production, civil aviation and auto industry. How well is Iran using the sanctions relief in those areas is another matter. The West also gets a frozen nuclear program. Much better than the total collapse of the talks for both sides, if a final agreement could not be reached
DeleteThe money is a pittance compared to the sum total actually owed to iran and irans centrifuges keep turning and iran keeps producing more enriched uranium,so one can see that there is enormous pressure on both sides from the hardliners who on one side want to impose more sanctions and on the other want to expand the enrichment program.The big problem with the idea of this temporary extension becoming permanent is that it satisfies no one because it does not deal with any of the core issues,personally I do not see there being any further extensions likely after this one
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