Iran will soon submit a four-point plan to end the Syrian civil war to the United Nations, its deputy foreign minister said Wednesday. [source: Reuters] That plan will likely encompass an immediate cease-fire, creation of a national unity government, rewriting of Syria’s constitution to include the majority of Syrian ethnic groups, and hold national elections under international supervision. The plan may also provide for joint regional negotiations to end the conflict, that include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.
Interesting to see Iranian and Syrian woman participants among the foreign ministry delegations, in conference
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem was scheduled to meet with Mikhail Bogdanov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to the Middle East, on the evening of 04AUG15 in Tehran.
The Interfax news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry on 05AUG15 as saying that a delegation of the Syrian National Coalition opposition group has been invited to visit Moscow next week.
Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency
Any proposal, including the Iranian plan, needs to be based on the realities on the ground. Forming a national unity government and revising the constitution would have worked perfectly when peaceful demonstrators in 2011 were calling for exactly those types of reform. Assad chose to use barrel bombs instead. Unfortunately the country is now disintegrated, not in 2 or 3 parts but in many fiefdom-type territories controlled by a variety of groups, including the regime, ISIL, Qaeda-affiliate Al Nusra, many smaller armed opposition groups and the Kurds. Added to the mix are thousands of Shia militias, including the Hezbollah, and foreign forces, including the Iranian Quds Force, and many foreign countries trying to influence the events in what was once Syria. A plan offering a process for the settlement of the conflict, starting with a ceasefire, needs to be accepted by the great majority of the actors, state and non-state, if it were to be enforceable and ultimately successful. The recreation of the days of Assad’s rule and the “Axis of Resistance” might not be possible.
ReplyDeleteI interpret the Iranian emphasis on minorities as a relatively recent focus, in a nod towards IRGC-QF establishment and close relations with minorities that make up NDF as well as recent Syrian Arab Republic overture towards the Kurds..
Delete"Barrel bombs" are simply a local solution for an air-to-ground munition, much less efficient than the munitions currently being dropped by RSAF on Yemeni population centers.
As for "Assad rule" and "axis of resistance", the Iranian posture towards the latter is that any Syrian regime that reflects the popular consensus of its populace will continue to seek the return of the Golan Heights and rights of the Palestinians, and as to the former the Iranian position has consistently stated that the current top leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic should be included towards a political solution to resolve the current conflict.
Iran has been Assad's major supporter from the very beginning of the conflict. During these 4.5 years, I haven't seen any attempt by Iran to work with the opposition to achieve a settlement to the conflict. At least until very recently, Iran and Assad believed that a military solution to the conflict was possible and they could score an outright victory. I believe the statement that Iran consistently has seek a political solution in Syria is not correct.
DeleteBarrel bombs are cruelly designed to cause indiscriminate and massive casualties in urban neighborhoods and their use could be considered a war crime. It's not "simply a local solution." It's not all that local solution either, ask the Quds Force! Saudi bombing of civilian targets is wrong and does not justify Assad's use of barrel bombs in populated neighborhoods. People will go to the Hague tribunal for their use.
I think that putting back the old Syrian state, as it was prior to 2011, including Iran's position in that country, could be very difficult now. The country after nearly 5 years of civil war could more likely be disintegrated into fiefdoms controlled by different groups, including Assad, and it might take years if not decades to reunite all those areas.
From purely military point of view , it's safe to say that IRGC-Quds Forces must be among the most over-rated forces anywhere .
DeleteMaybe Assad's regime has run out of barrels? And since Iran has enough barrels laying around they could donate a few thousand to Assad joon for duel use purposes.Such is the foreign policy of the Islamic regime.
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